How many kids have left the school? (VAT)

[limeandwater]

It's been long enough now that I think we can make a reasonable conclusion on how bad it has hurt school.

To be honest at our school I only know 3 pupils that have left because of the VAT so not as bad as many feared.

Still heartbreaking for the kids though.

It's hard to tell, because how many children did not join the school, who would have done so if VAT had not been imposed - in yrs 7, 9 and 12.

My Ds' school will close their sixth form from September.

That's so sad.

Our school mitigated the hit, meaning our fees only increased by 9%.
We gained pupils from two other local private schools that closed down.

That's good to hear.

What about all those children whose parents could never afford a private education, is it heartbreaking for them too?

One of the few private schools local to us shut down but that had been struggling financially since 2019. The others all benefited from that closure.

No obviously it isn't heartbreaking for them, as nothing has changed for those kids. They haven't had to leave their school and their friends.

Not sure how many left, but the number (and % size of) bursaries was chopped by about 50% according to rumours. I think that's probably true given the far lower number of students in DD2s intake (year 7) compared to how many were in DD1s (year 9).

Really sad as it's the really bright students, whose parents can't afford school fees, who have been hit the most. The parents of friends that DD1 has who are recipients of bursaries are really gutted, even though they are keeping their bursaries. One said to me the other day it's not about bringing people up but rather keeping every down, which honestly is how it feels as the very wealthy can continue as normal and the middle class who had to stretch to give their kids the best chance are, once again, the ones who suffer.

Near us the local comps are crap. I'd rather have quite my job and home-schooled than subject my children to them (moving isn't an option).

At our school they mitigated the impact and then benefited when another school closed (there were at least 6 moved to join my child’s year alone).

It will have put off people from joining at each stage, but those with kids already there weren’t about to disrupt their kids education unless unavoidable.

Helps to be at a very academically competitive school. For those who focus on returns, the academic ROI is high.

My DD’s school is highly regarded in terms of its work with children who have SpLD (especially Dyslexia). Worryingly, the current Year 7 cohort is about half the size of the current Year 11.

Traditionally, the school tends to pick up quite a few extras in Year 8 and Year 9 from both state and prep. So we will have to see how things develop there over the next couple of years.

The school is also looking closely at its 6th form offer as more and more are leaving at the end of Year 11. The school is a victim of its own success in that area as it does so well and supporting kids to get a good crop of GCSE that those kids then get places in the local grammar 6th forms.

Private school in our area is closing down altogether at the end of summer term. Yes the other private schools will benefit (including ds school), but it’s sad for those families and staff.

Really sad

6 from DS’s year that I know of. And DD’s school is closing down at the end of this year, which is a shame as she loves it there and had a lot of nice friends. Seems like several of us are all switching to the same school from next year so hopefully she’ll get on okay.

Really sorry to hear that.

It was always assumed that very few would leave private education if they were already in it. Parents would simply make cut-backs elsewhere to ensure their children could remain at school.

The biggest impact has been on joiners. Particularly for independent primary schools.

When schools can see their reception, year 3 or year 7 intake falling year after year, the numbers no longer add up and schools are closing up and down the country.

I don't see how you can extract the VAT issue from all the other factors which might be affecting school numbers; fall in birth rate, rapid inflation since 2020, cost of living crisis, interest rates or the school becoming less popular (rumour-mongering).

A balanced view would take all these into account. Near me, 4 state schools have closed in the past 2 years because of falling roll, so I don't see how you can apportion everything to VAT on fees.

It's a factor.

Of course it is.

But the PP is right, & 75 private schools a year closed between 2013-2023. Awful for the children. Nothing to do with VAT. So it will be interesting to see whether that number rises over the next few years. It probably will, as pupil numbers are falling everywhere. So while it’s obviously a factor, it is also hard to isolate it.

I don’t know how many have left as my DC has only just started. I think their year is maybe 1 or 2 smaller than last year. The nursery is already full for next year though and apparently there’s a few joining her year in September.

MSM? They have been struggling for years

Yes it has had an effect. From google search:

Private school pupil numbers in England have seen a significant decline, falling by over 11,000 (roughly 1.9%) to 582,500 in January 2025 compared to 2024, the biggest drop in over a decade, notes the BBC. This trend follows the removal of VAT exemptions on fees, reversing previous growth and putting enrollment back to roughly 2021/22 levels.

Key Trends and Data:

• Declining Enrollment: The Independent Schools Council (ISC) reported that private primary school enrollment dropped by 3.5%, while secondary school numbers dropped by 1.7% in early 2025.
• The "VAT Effect": The imposition of 20% VAT on private school fees from January 1, 2025, is a key driver of the decline, with early figures contradicting lower government projections of a 3,000-pupil drop.
• Regional Variances: The drop in pupils is not uniform, with independent school management noting the North East, Scotland, and Wales experiencing faster declines than other areas.
• Long-Term Context: Despite the recent fall, the number of independent special schools in England has increased, with a reported 347 more operating in 2024/25 than a decade prior, according to Statista.
• Sector Response: While some families are leaving, others are seeking financial aid, with reports indicating a rise in bursaries to help manage the increased costs.

-

Well, it hasn't been long enough to fully understand the impact because parents won't have wanted to disrupt exam cycles if they could possibly avoid it. A child in Y10 or L6th when the VAT change came into effect would still have not sat their GCSEs or A levels yet so parents would beg borrow or steal to see that through, and then withdraw them. There's gonna be a bloodbath in the summer.

the family I’m familiar with are selling their home and moving.
all due to school fees, so currently still in private.

I don't know any

That's really good to hear. Nice to hear not all schools have been affected.

In our area the grammars have had unprecedented numbers of applications and the entrance rate has increased quite significantly. Children who would have won a place a few years ago from state schools aren’t getting in.

We know a few that will be leaving at the next natural exit point I.e KS2 and a few that have downsized to afford the fees. Our school had benefitted from two other local preps closing so have been able to add another class to each year.