Anyone else in Dubai on holiday? AIBU to be panicking with all the flights cancelled?

[tiantian1005]

Not sure when we can go home..anyone has managed to for example drive to nearby countries and fly from there?

This was on the bbc app yesterday evening but it’s not on there now. I’ve got the Apple news app and on there there is one article about it from ipaper but it really skims over it and it doesn’t say where the information is from. Just that British people in the Middle East should register their presence and shelter in place.

It says

“British officials are discussing scenarios for a mass rescue, including land routes into Saudi Arabia, The i Paper understands”

British embassy in Dubai? It might be helpful for them to know what British citizens are in the country so they can look after you if needed?

Basically no one knows anything

How's things in Dubai this morning?

94000 Overland via coaches? Fucking hell that's a long journey and a lot of coaches (and then planes). That's going to take a long long time. The logistics are huge. And there's still potentially vulnerable bottlenecks in that.

I would have thought that's an absolute last resort. And one they won't action unless they have to. It's going to be at least watch and wait for a few more days.

Agree that sounds hugely risky.

I wonder do they prioritise evacuating people at all? I am thinking people with a limited medication supply/needing treatment/vulnerable?

I remember a colleague having the most stressful time in the pandemic because her elderly parents were stuck abroad

I would be flabbergasted if this was happening. Didn’t the guy say ‘we’re looking at all available options’ or something?. Things on the ground in the UAE feel calmer today (we’ve heard explosions but eg I’ve only heard one all morning, nothing overnight). From residents here there’s also a lot of trust that the government/military here will sort things out.

Obviously Saturday especially was very scary, but it feels like a complete misrepresentation of what’s happening to say it’s ’evacuate 97,000 people urgent’.

There 100% will be a prioritisation.

Vulnerable people first. (And probably those who can afford chauffeur driven escorts who will clog up bottle neck points).

DHs friend is in a particularly precarious position. She is a work colleague with a passport that's not going to be helpful and she's traveling with someone who has a helpful passport. I realised immediately this is potentially going to be a problem for her. I don't think DH has said anything to him so I'm not sure if the penny has dropped.

There's going to be quite a few issues along these lines too if they decide to evacuate.

Messy. Very messy.

Tbh I think they have to look at options. It really depends if they can win this battle over taking out Iranian threats. On paper it's something they could and should be able to do, but fuck knows until they actually manage it. And tbh id still not like to be flying out of there for some time anyway.

To the best of my knowledge, the UAE government will be covering the costs of those tourists stranded in Dubai and Abu Dhabi and probably the other Emirates, until they are able to be evacuated.

It was on the Times website late on Sunday evening but now seems to have vanished.

That does sound like absolute last resort territory. I wonder if they're talking about it just to try and keep people calm. Staying in place in a country with plenty of resources for a period of time does sound preferable / more safe. I suppose it depends what Iran does next.

Thank goodness they don't have nuclear weapons.

Why plaster evacuation plans over the papers. It doesn’t seem things are set yet. Surely more secure if people in the country told evacuation plans being prepared and to register. Then announce it to them when it is happening.

Particularly as UAE and KSA have been fighting a very nasty war in Yemen, with Iran on the opposing side. Oman is the only country in the region that Iran remains fairly neutral with. I wonder how strict KSA will be on dual passports/different visas.

It sounds like maybe just Abu Dhabi will from the papers. They are the ones with oil so they can afford it fine.
It doesn't seem to across emirates from what i read

I think the 'making plans' for an evacuation will be contingency and not something that will happen immediately. It's incredibly expensive to run an evacuation and the first option will be commercial. So they'll likely be looking at planning scenarios but options will be quite limited anyway.

Likewise on BBC this morning there was a story UK was looking to evacuate over 94k people who had contacted them across the ME and over 200k nationals were on their radar making it the biggest evacuation ever attempted over multiple countries. That story has also disappeared...

A copy of the document I've seen elsewhere refers to the responsible body being the " UAE's General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA)"

According to this article, it is UAE wide:
https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/world/how-uae-is-taking-care-of-stranded-tourists/story

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdjm8pn0ld8o - the article about the operation to support British nationals is here.

Thank you - I read it at 7:30 then went back to find it and it wasn't showing for some reason despite trying to search for evacuation and ME news.

Where would they put their luggage? A modern day Dick Turpin’s dream

The absolute LAST place I would want to be is a coach in KSA.

They probably won't be allowed luggage apart from a small bag.

My take:

This is surely a US-Putin war. Iran is a major supplier of drones for Russia and has a growing armaments capacity, so is a genuine threat to Israel.

Israel is a strong ally of the US. Other economically developed countries in the area sit uncomfortably on a fence. On one hand linked to their neighbours via race (Arab) and religion (Islam). Iran is a bit of an outlier because the people are Persian not Arab, the religion is Shia not Sunni, and also the ayatollahs will not approve of the consumerist mecca (pun not intended) that is Dubai. For the more Gulf states the US and west are where you sell oil, where you gather your affluent tourists and where you gain protection from Russia and other threats. All those officers trained at Sandhurst, arms bought in France, and US bases. At the same time Islam is the glue that unites the people behind the rulers and there will be strong concerns about Israel's action in Palestine.

The US aim will be to destabilise an unpopular Iranian regime. The big question here is, who they are hoping to replace the Ayatollahs with. The regime is very unpopular, particularly amongst the educated middle class, but no organised opposition has been able to develop. The Crown Prince could be used as a figurehead but not more. The hope is that the US have learned from Iraq, where getting rid on Saddam left a dangerous vacuum, but who knows.

The Iranian aim, with these missile attacks will be to loosen Arab logistical support for the US. They are not seeking to hurt civilians, just to hurt the economy with some damage to US bases and aircraft carriers. There will be a lot of talking going on behind the scenes, and until an impasse is reached the attacks will remain low level, though frightening. The UK government will be considering options but shelter in place sounds right for now. If there were to be an escalation it is very likely that the Gulf states would be able to demand a ceasefire to allow evacuation. Iran really does not want to go to war with so many of its neighbours. The aim is to persuade them to support their Muslim brothers over their western economic interests, and thus cut off US support for Israel.

Exit routes for the super-rich (link address at top of image).