To reckon that Reform will win the next election, and to be utterly terrified about it? 😪

[mumofoneAloneandwell]

i am a leftie

I think they’ll win

If don’t, they’ll have the majority in a hung parliament and govern as a minority party before joining with the Tories.

i’m going to tighten my belt re running my home and prepare for onslaught as the country becomes unrecognisable

The left also have a split vote with the Greens.

Years of being lied to, u-turns and ripping up of manifesto commitments will do that to people.

I am looking at the conservatives and thinking get your bloody act together guys.

If you dont like Labour, there needs to be a strong opposition for people to vote for. There isnt.

Im not conservative, but i do vaguely remember thatcher, major, Cameron presenting as understanding parliamentary democracy, and some centrist policies. Yes they are 'right wing' but not in a have the army roam the streets and shoot immigrants way.

I do think lib dems are making a bit of progress again. People need to get over the tuition fee thing and think how they moderated other conservative actions and we're the smaller partner.

The only two parties on an upwards trajectory rn are Greens and Conservatives. Mostly due to their leaders. Labour is a ski slope downwards and Reform may or may not go up again.

We can only hope.

Old Nige will be off to his next grift

Yes but what in Farage’s behaviour and that of the defectors could possibly have given you the idea he’s going to be different?

I think they shall peak soon

The Conservatives shall strengthen as they can separate themselves from Reform with all these loser Tories jumping ship

Labour will very likely have a new leader by the next election and could possibly forma coalition with the LibDems (Greens will also likely gain a few seats)

Maybe they could win if we had a PR system but I think with FPTP it’s unlikely they would get a majority. Also if tactical voting pacts can be made that may keep them out. I don’t know, maybe they will get in, but I think FPTP will probably mean they don’t get a majority.

And I thought I was an optimist!
How are there going to be visible NHS improvements when the population is growing older and poorer and more mentally ill, and it will take rafts of extra money even to keep it struggling on at the same level?

I’m not particularly bothered who is in government. Either way we are fucked.

Can't be worse. Reform are the "fuck the lot of you" choice. A protest vote just like Brexit. But better because its only a 5 year gamble.

I'm a total politics nerd and I don't believe they will win a majority.
Farrage is very devisive. Many people will be motivated to vote against him.
Lots of right wingers dislike him too, and I imagine those people are further put off by all these Tory defections.
I think next election will be messy in terms of no or very narrow majority and probably some coalition/s.
The 2 party system is breaking down isn't it?

Its far too early for accurate predictions. A lot can happen in the next few years. Maybe it's time for a new political party. Be interesting to see what happens in this upcoming by election. I think Labour will win. But with a much reduced majority.

In 1928, the Nazi party only got 2.6% of the vote. By 1933 they had absolute power. You underestimate Reform at your peril.

How Farage got away with saying "what 350 million quid mate?" the day after the referendum and anybody would trust him with ANYTHING is beyond me.

He pushed Brexit and we can see how much damage and cost that's caused this country.

TBH Reform aren't that popular.... it's just that the vote is really split at the minute.

The odds shifted dramatically after Burnham was blocked. He probably would have but now it might be between Reform and Greens.

I'm a member of the reform party, I hope they do win, but 3 years is a very long time in politics. They'll be some sort or merger with the Tories, well if there's any left that haven't defected across that is. The left will have to follow suit as well. Whatever happens a seismic shift is coming.

If Labour can be seen to “stop the boats” they would pick up so many votes.

The boats is such a huge issue for so many communities. Rightly or wrongly.

Labours infighting and u turns are turning people off.

I loathe Reform but I can see them circling like vultures.

I did a few months back but not now. I live in Wales and Plaid will win the Senedd. Greens are winning over Reform in some places in England and as people associate Farage with Trump, and all that is now imploding, I don’t think they will any more. I don’t know who will, but I think Reform won’t be a strong opposition. Plus Reform are Tories 2.0 now.

Also frozen rail ticket prices

I am in Wales too. I think Plaid will probably manage a win, but I am still a bit nervous about it.

And you have a vote - use it! Tactically if necessary

This and the subsequent additions are an impressive list.

Reform on the other hand - 164 flags up at a cost of £75,000.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz68d284dvyo

If there's any justice in the world, Clacton will vote Farage out at the next election for his remarkably poor performance as an MP. Not that I believe there's much justice in the world, but as long as there's some, we can hope.

From low attendance to little casework: Facts show Nigel Farage’s appalling record as MP - Left Foot Forward: Leading the UK's progressive debate

I think we need to brace ourselves for the fact that, as with Brexit and Trump, the social media algorithms will promote Reform far more than they deserve, and that amplified messaging is likely to impact voting.

We live in a really dangerous time, where manipulation of social media is having a pervasive and often hidden effect on our ability to function as a democracy. There will be misinformation, scare stories, convincing AI inventions…

The problem is that social media impact is largely driven by negative emotions - it will be focused on creating fear and outrage, and they will drown out more moderate messages. That fear and outrage will be directed at the usual easy targets, those with the least power in society to defend themselves against it (particularly immigrants and asylum seekers).

You can be sure that the noise this generates will stop people looking at issues that I would argue are more important, from UK issues like huge wealth inequality, lack of social mobility and the gradual collapse in living standards of all but the very wealthiest in our country to more macro issues like climate change and the risks of AI and our children’s diminishing prospects of living decent, fulfilled lives.

The noise will also dissuade people from thinking too hard about the motivations of the disaster capitalists - from acknowledging that, much like Trump, Farage and his ilk are largely motivated by the opportunity that power brings for making them enormously wealthy - at the expense of the UK electorate.

In the face of all this, will we be able to heed the clear warnings from the US and recognise that this is not a path that will benefit ordinary working families?

As I see it, Reform will make most of the country (except for a very small elite) poorer and angrier.

When the time comes to vote again, people will look around them and wonder why it all went so horribly wrong. What’s left of Reform will stand there and tell them that it would’ve all worked, if only they had been allowed to be more Right wing, less held back by all the liberal, woke do-gooders - and then the whole merry dance will begin again.