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Welfare spending to rise by £73.2bn to £406.2bn

1000 replies

topicalaffair · 23/01/2026 14:25

Over the next five years, the OBR is forecasting that UK welfare spending will rise by £73.2bn to £406.2bn.

How does everyone feel about this? I’m livid because I pay lots of tax. I don’t mind paying tax to maintain a civilised society - but this? This is surely taking the piss and will result in weaker and weaker services as the amount of £ available reduces day by day.

YANBU - it’s totally deranged. The every growing uk population can’t function effectively on such a benefits for all basis.

YABU - this welfare spending bill is truly representative of need.

Welfare spending to rise by £73.2bn to £406.2bn
OP posts:
Thread gallery
9
LakieLady · 23/01/2026 16:44

Nikii83 · 23/01/2026 14:33

The biggest cost is rent, due to the lack of affordable social housing and the large increases in cost of private sector rent. Then the triple lock state retirement pension.

until we regulate rent and have better social housing stock and people are paid an actual living wage the cost will continue to soar

I've been saying this about rents for years.

My pensioner MIL lives in a council house and her rent is £135pw, covered by housing benefit. The identical house next door to hers was bought under right-to-buy and is now rented out for £1,500 a month, nearly £1,000 more.

Someone on benefits renting that house could get up to £356pw UC towards their rent, over £10k a year more. And as social housing is cost neutral in the medium-long term, building more of it makes a lot of sense.

Frequency · 23/01/2026 16:45

PandoraSocks · 23/01/2026 16:36

However, Reform's core support is amongst people on benefits. A conundrum for Farage.

The turkeys are voting for Christmas again, and if they get what they want, they'll be back on TV whining that no one warned them Farage was lying.

EasternStandard · 23/01/2026 16:45

Boomer55 · 23/01/2026 16:42

Well it’s spread amongst many groups - rural communities, pensioners not on means tested benefits etc

They have made it crystal clear that they don’t buy into adult sickness/disability claims for anxiety etc or things for children like ADHD etc. They've made it clear they dont acknowledge “long COVID”

I don’t know or care if they will be elected - but things might change if they are. 🤷‍♀️

Edited

I don’t think it does lose them votes anyway as one of the few times they dropped in the polls was when he talked about removing the two child cap.

Allseeingallknowing · 23/01/2026 16:45

bathsmat · 23/01/2026 16:40

@Allseeingallknowing I don’t understand what you mean. The 2 child cap is separate to child benefit. Child benefit needs to be paid back if you earn “ too much”.

Edited

Perhaps this will help
https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2024/07/martin-lewis-two-child-benefit-cap/

Kirbert2 · 23/01/2026 16:49

topicalaffair · 23/01/2026 16:14

‘Families on benefits can be better off than those earning £70k’

That shouldn’t be a thing. People shouldn’t be better off on benefits than working. What a mess.

It's very misleading.

That can only be possible in very few circumstances such as living in central London with several disabled children.

Otherwise the benefit cap applies.

Lifestooshort71 · 23/01/2026 16:49

bathsmat · 23/01/2026 15:12

@Badacrowe state pension is a benefit, what is so hard to understand?!

What I find hard to understand (apologies for continuing with this patronising phrase), is that as I have to pay tax on my SP, why aren't all other benefits taxable? And before I get shouted down, my SP is about 15k a year so more than the basic.

bathsmat · 23/01/2026 16:50

@Allseeingallknowing I understand they are separate?

as the article says re child benefit, I think “higher earners” shouldn’t have to pay it back.

“"Plus, there is another restriction on Child Benefit that depends on what the highest-earning parent earns. So, once they earn £60,000 or more, then the Child Benefit is clawed back through the tax system via what's called the high income Child Benefit charge. If their income is over £80,000, then that charge is the same as the Child Benefit – so, effectively, you do not get any Child Benefit”

YesSirICanNameChange · 23/01/2026 16:50

Still waiting for the OP to tell me how to become a high earner...

bathsmat · 23/01/2026 16:51

@Lifestooshort71 not everybody pays tax on their SP, it depends on other things.

Samdelila · 23/01/2026 16:51

topicalaffair · 23/01/2026 16:33

There are some charts here if you click the archive link to the news article I linked earlier. Here again fyi

https://archive.ph/DWQBX

I had a quick look at this and I don’t mean to sound ungrateful but it’s not quite what I was looking for. I’m interested in a clear, simple breakdown of what’s spent on:
Pensions, pensioner benefits, universal credit, disability benefits, housing benefits, child benefit, Jobseeker’s Allowance, any other benefits or supports included in welfare.

bathsmat · 23/01/2026 16:52

And as social housing is cost neutral in the medium-long term, building more of it makes a lot of sense.

People don’t want houses built near them

UserFront242 · 23/01/2026 16:53

Samdelila · 23/01/2026 16:51

I had a quick look at this and I don’t mean to sound ungrateful but it’s not quite what I was looking for. I’m interested in a clear, simple breakdown of what’s spent on:
Pensions, pensioner benefits, universal credit, disability benefits, housing benefits, child benefit, Jobseeker’s Allowance, any other benefits or supports included in welfare.

Maybe a breakdown of UC too. UC covers several benefits.

Frequency · 23/01/2026 16:53

Kirbert2 · 23/01/2026 16:49

It's very misleading.

That can only be possible in very few circumstances such as living in central London with several disabled children.

Otherwise the benefit cap applies.

I'm sure this was debunked on the last benefit-bashing thread. I think the numbers add up if you use a disabled woman, raising three disabled children, in private rented housing in London.

Honestly, if a disabled single parent can raise 3 disabled children on her own, she deserves a lot more than £70k p/a, but in reality, how many families like this actually exist?

Vinvertebrate · 23/01/2026 16:54

EasternStandard · 23/01/2026 16:28

Labour did say they wanted to bring the cost down but both of these are in the opposite direction.

Yes, I’m certainly noticing a “forked tongue” in much of the ordure coming out of Labour. Talking a good game about PIP spending, but too frit of their own back benchers to do anything. Lots of mood music and smooth talking about supporting SEND kids, while removing their parents’ legal rights.

As my dear departed nanna would say, “they’ll piss on you and tell you it’s raining”.

bathsmat · 23/01/2026 16:54

@Frequency hardly any, even the article says it’s highly unusual

Countingcro · 23/01/2026 16:54

PandoraSocks · 23/01/2026 16:21

<Deep breath> - my mother's-sister's-neighbour's-nephew's-daughter is claiming PIP for acne plus UC. DWP also pay for a support monkey and a goat. And of course she has a free Range Rover to cart the animals about.

It is outrageous.

Have fun on MN @topicalaffair Always good to have a fresh benefits bashing thread from a fresh name.😊

I don’t get this attitude. This rise in welfare is economically unsustainable. Surely you know that? You cannot be that foolish. It cannot keep increasing because the entire country will be bankrupt.

This issue isn’t talked about on here nearly enough if you think it’s funny. Whenever anyone goes through some sort of tougher time half the posters say ‘oh apply for x, y, z benefit as though that should be a natural port of call. It’s nonsense. Claim disability benefit only if the alternative is that you’d be on the streets, not because you want a bit of extra cash. The triple lock should have been binned 10 years ago. Along with public sector defined benefit pensions.

Too many pathetic governments are too scared to confront the electorate about the mindblowingly scary financial situation we’re in. And so despite my husband and I and lots of other hard workers paying over £100k of income tax last year the country is fast tracking to financial annihilation.

Allseeingallknowing · 23/01/2026 16:54

bathsmat · 23/01/2026 16:50

@Allseeingallknowing I understand they are separate?

as the article says re child benefit, I think “higher earners” shouldn’t have to pay it back.

“"Plus, there is another restriction on Child Benefit that depends on what the highest-earning parent earns. So, once they earn £60,000 or more, then the Child Benefit is clawed back through the tax system via what's called the high income Child Benefit charge. If their income is over £80,000, then that charge is the same as the Child Benefit – so, effectively, you do not get any Child Benefit”

https://www.facebook.com/mrmartinlewis/posts/an-important-clarification-pls-sharethere-is-no-two-child-cap-on-child-benefitiv/10159537016696540/

Martin Lewis

An important clarification - pls share. There is NO two child cap on Child Benefit I've had questions, as many media outlets write confusing statements or use 'child benefit' as shorthand. The...

https://www.facebook.com/mrmartinlewis/posts/an-important-clarification-pls-sharethere-is-no-two-child-cap-on-child-benefitiv/10159537016696540/

pointythings · 23/01/2026 16:54

Frequency · 23/01/2026 16:53

I'm sure this was debunked on the last benefit-bashing thread. I think the numbers add up if you use a disabled woman, raising three disabled children, in private rented housing in London.

Honestly, if a disabled single parent can raise 3 disabled children on her own, she deserves a lot more than £70k p/a, but in reality, how many families like this actually exist?

Pretty sure that 'calculation' was either the Mail or the Torygraph, and they don't have an agenda at all, oh no.

Allseeingallknowing · 23/01/2026 16:55

The two child cap is about benefits

bathsmat · 23/01/2026 16:55

Aren’t the benefits reforms coming in for new applicants but not current ones?

bathsmat · 23/01/2026 16:56

@Allseeingallknowing why do you think I don’t understand that?

I don’t have an issue with removing the cap and as a separate point I think all incomes should receive child benefit.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 23/01/2026 16:56

it’s ridiculous that a household bring in up to 70k still gets the winter fuel but look at the outcry

IMO it's ridiculous to keep the triple lock too, but nobody seems prepared to touch it

And that's coming from another pensioner ...

Countingcro · 23/01/2026 16:58

bathsmat · 23/01/2026 16:55

Aren’t the benefits reforms coming in for new applicants but not current ones?

No. Labour backbenchers decided it wasn’t a kind thing to do, displaying just how thick they are.

Cappuccinodelight · 23/01/2026 16:58

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UserFront242 · 23/01/2026 16:58

bathsmat · 23/01/2026 16:55

Aren’t the benefits reforms coming in for new applicants but not current ones?

Yes, people getting LCWRA from April will be on a lower rate.
There was also talk of LCWRA being linked to PIP, as in you wont get LCWRA if you do not get the Daily Living element of PIP. Which makes no sense at all as PIP is not an out of work benefit.

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