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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To wonder how the UK will look in 3 years time?

905 replies

Labradorlover987 · 11/08/2025 13:19

I was inspired to write this after reading the UC post that was just reported - the govt’s welfare bill has passed but was watered down so unlikely to make any real savings.

I earn 40k, have a school age child and just feel like I am living hand to mouth 😩 I 100% think there should be a welfare systems that supports people on low incomes but I wonder how the current system will be sustained in the long run?

Just wondered what other people thought.

I actually wouldn’t mind paying more in taxes if we could be guaranteed more in services etc - for example my council tax just went up and the services seem even worse this year than usual.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
5
BIossomtoes · 13/08/2025 14:04

Araminta1003 · 13/08/2025 13:57

In theory though, it is absurd that two people working full time on the National minimum wage from 18-65 are not paying enough tax to cover the cost of themselves to the country, at the point they are working. It is basically stealing from the future generation.
I am sorry but the triple lock has to go and pensioners who can have to pay the equivalent of NI into an NHS top up fund. It should not be that a pensioner drawing a 50000 pension a year is better of than a worker with 2 kids, it makes no sense for society.

Even when that pensioner paid high levels of tax for decades and took nothing out? There are a lot of us in that situation. I agree that the triple lock should go and perhaps we should pay NI at the level higher tax payers do, 2% would be acceptable.

StarDolphins · 13/08/2025 14:05

Trendyname · 13/08/2025 12:35

Of course it is not going to be fixed in one year when it took years to reach issues where they are. Tell us a politician or a party who is going to fix it, Maybe we can all vote for them in next elections.

🤣Where did I say I expected it to all be fixed in 1 year? I expect things not to have got worse. You know, like they have.

Araminta1003 · 13/08/2025 14:09

“Even when that pensioner paid high levels of tax for decades and took nothing out? There are a lot of us in that situation. I agree that the triple lock should go and perhaps we should pay NI at the level higher tax payers do, 2% would be acceptable.”

Yes I think so @blossomtoes. It should be the equivalent of what workers pay in NI contributions, same amount, same thresholds.
By all means, make it a care fund then. To go into respite care whatever, there is so much need for this stuff.
I also think that those actually working should get priority on NHS lists for treatment, but that is more controversial. Especially those doing physically demanding jobs. You cannot work if you cannot get treatment quickly. As we have an increasingly ageing population, we will have to make decisions like this.

MrsSkylerWhite · 13/08/2025 14:11

StarDolphins · 13/08/2025 14:05

🤣Where did I say I expected it to all be fixed in 1 year? I expect things not to have got worse. You know, like they have.

That things feel worse is because we are all still suffering the negative effects of policies implemented by a succession of incompetent conservative governments for many years. Like a large ship being slowed, stopped and turned round, the same is true of an out of control economy. It takes time. Certainly considerably more timethan a year.
We are all still paying for the disaster inflicted on us by the Truss/Kwarteng “government”.

EasternStandard · 13/08/2025 14:12

MrsSkylerWhite · 13/08/2025 14:11

That things feel worse is because we are all still suffering the negative effects of policies implemented by a succession of incompetent conservative governments for many years. Like a large ship being slowed, stopped and turned round, the same is true of an out of control economy. It takes time. Certainly considerably more timethan a year.
We are all still paying for the disaster inflicted on us by the Truss/Kwarteng “government”.

It’s really not this. Ik it’s your view but most can see it’s not.

Araminta1003 · 13/08/2025 14:13

As for the very rich, I really do not think a 2% wealth tax will work. Too few of them and just a few changing their behaviour leads to the money not being raised.
Better to do an incentive - a war time style bond to bring down the sovereign debt and give them tax incentives to do so and some patriotic credit. I am sure some financiers can come up with something. There are quite a lot of patriotic rich people left who would contribute something.
Look if private schools can raise 500 million in prepayments in a few months by offering a discount equivalent to what they would have paid in income tax on savings, then the Government can do similar with a bond. Borrow from your own rich at a rate where they are tax neutral and we are all better off.

MrsSkylerWhite · 13/08/2025 14:14

EasternStandard · 13/08/2025 14:12

It’s really not this. Ik it’s your view but most can see it’s not.

It really is 🤣

BIossomtoes · 13/08/2025 14:16

Araminta1003 · 13/08/2025 14:09

“Even when that pensioner paid high levels of tax for decades and took nothing out? There are a lot of us in that situation. I agree that the triple lock should go and perhaps we should pay NI at the level higher tax payers do, 2% would be acceptable.”

Yes I think so @blossomtoes. It should be the equivalent of what workers pay in NI contributions, same amount, same thresholds.
By all means, make it a care fund then. To go into respite care whatever, there is so much need for this stuff.
I also think that those actually working should get priority on NHS lists for treatment, but that is more controversial. Especially those doing physically demanding jobs. You cannot work if you cannot get treatment quickly. As we have an increasingly ageing population, we will have to make decisions like this.

Nope. 2% across the board. And NHS treatment should continue to be based on clinical need. If working people want to be head of the queue they should take out health insurance which is completely unaffordable if you’re a pensioner.

EasternStandard · 13/08/2025 14:16

MrsSkylerWhite · 13/08/2025 14:14

It really is 🤣

Emojis won’t help Labour either.

BIossomtoes · 13/08/2025 14:17

EasternStandard · 13/08/2025 14:16

Emojis won’t help Labour either.

They don’t help anyone. They’re highly expressive though.

MrsSkylerWhite · 13/08/2025 14:18

EasternStandard · 13/08/2025 14:16

Emojis won’t help Labour either.

Eh?

BIossomtoes · 13/08/2025 14:20

MrsSkylerWhite · 13/08/2025 14:18

Eh?

She hates emojis. 😂

EasternStandard · 13/08/2025 14:23

BIossomtoes · 13/08/2025 14:20

She hates emojis. 😂

You fill too much head space with this type of stuff.

Trendyname · 13/08/2025 14:36

EasternStandard · 13/08/2025 12:38

The public don’t want to see it get worse. Ie lower jobs, higher taxes and other policies that are failing.

If it was getting a bit better even slowly Labour would have more support.

So what’s your solution? Question is not about the kind of policies which will fix them, we all know that. Who is going to do that. Tory? But they were crap. Or Farage, who lied about benefits of Brexit. I would like to know which party, in your opinion, will implement those beneficial, nation building policies.

Trendyname · 13/08/2025 14:39

EasternStandard · 13/08/2025 13:15

Because you’re ignoring Labour’s decisions 🤷‍♀️

So which party has been great at making good decisions? Why not update us with that so we can vote for them.

MrsSkylerWhite · 13/08/2025 14:42

Trendyname · 13/08/2025 14:36

So what’s your solution? Question is not about the kind of policies which will fix them, we all know that. Who is going to do that. Tory? But they were crap. Or Farage, who lied about benefits of Brexit. I would like to know which party, in your opinion, will implement those beneficial, nation building policies.

Nation building? That would be nice, wouldn’t it. That anyone actually believes Farage cares about the people of this nation is nothing short of laughable.
Were he, perish the horrific thought, to become PM, he would follow the pattern demonstrated as an MEP and now MP. Barely turn up, when he does spout shite, cream off any direct or indirect benefit he can and then piss off to the US when it all becomes a bit uncomfortable and the public begin to hold him accountable for the disaster he will unleash.

Why, oh why does anyone believe this man of the people persona he’s adopted?

Cattenberg · 13/08/2025 14:46

BIossomtoes · 13/08/2025 13:06

I agree. It’s why the entire “net contributor” argument is so pointless and illogical. I was a higher rate tax payer for over 20 years during which I had no health issues at all, essentially I took virtually nothing. Now I’m a pensioner and the state pension means I take more than I pay in. Circumstances change everything.

It's also illogical because it doesn't include the value of the work itself.

A care worker might not be a net contributor, but they do an essential job, with the additional benefit of enabling their clients' relatives to keep working in their own careers.

A refuse collector might not be a net contributor, but we would have a reduced quality of life without them, and there would also be a risk to public health. There might also be a negative effect on some of our other sectors, such as tourism.

A supermarket shelf-stacker/till operator might not be a net contributor, but their work contributes to the billions of pounds in annual profit made by some supermarket chains.

A bus driver might not be a net contributor, but they provide a (relatively) environmentally-friendly way for others to get to work, attend appointments, go shopping and make use of leisure amenities.

A crop-picker might not be a net contributor, but without them, the crops would rot in the fields, more farmers would go out of business and supermarkets would import more produce from overseas, with the added cost to the environment.

Trendyname · 13/08/2025 14:49

StarDolphins · 13/08/2025 14:05

🤣Where did I say I expected it to all be fixed in 1 year? I expect things not to have got worse. You know, like they have.

🤣 to keep in sync with your communication style.

Now to serious stuff -

You are complaining about the government after just one year of them elected when ( one) the country’s issues are far more complex and long standing and developed over many years.

2 there are things happening at global levels which have also contributed to prices (A) going up every where and UK being a country of imports is impacted by it. (B) migration crisis of west due to conflicts in Middles East and parts of Africa.

But the great thing is that elections will take place again, and you are free to elect your favourite party to make Britain great again.

LongDistanceTravel · 13/08/2025 14:52

nearlylovemyusername · 12/08/2025 21:49

I posted this sometime ago on another thread but this is still relevant. The below is summary of info on gov sites with links supporting every number.

Top 1% (about 310,000 people, on £160k taxable min) pay 29% of all income UK taxes. This is about 80bn.

Top 10% pay 60%, which is 166bn.

About one third of working age population don't pay any tax at all.

Social security spending in Great Britain
In 2025 to 2026 the government is forecast to spend £316.1 billion on the social security system in Great Britain. Total GB welfare spending is forecast to be 10.6% of GDP and 23.5% of the total amount the government spends in 2025 to 2026.

Around 55% of social security expenditure goes to pensioners; in 2025 to 2026 we will spend £174.9 billion on benefits for pensioners in GB. This includes spending on the State Pension which is forecast to be £145.6 billion in 2025 to 2026.

In 2025 to 2026 we will spend £141.2 billion on working age and children welfare. This includes spending on Universal Credit and its predecessors, and non-DWP welfare spending.

In 2025 to 2026 we will spend £75.3 billion on benefits to support disabled people and people with health conditions, and £35.3 billion on housing benefits.
Guidance and methodology: Benefit expenditure and caseload tables - GOV.UK
So welfare payments are only 4.4bn less that all state pensions.

Only 35% of UC claimants are working.
Proportion of Universal Credit claimants in employment in England | LG Inform

There were 7.5 million people on Universal Credit in January 2025, up from 6.4 million people on Universal Credit in January 2024

Universal Credit statistics, 29 April 2013 to 9 January 2025 - GOV.UK
23.7 million people claimed some combination of DWP benefits in August 2024 (of the 17 benefits included in these statistics). Of these:

  • 13.1 million were of State Pension Age (including those in receipt of their State Pension)
  • 9.9 million were of Working Age
  • 750,000 were under 16 (and in receipt of DLA as a child)
Interesting stats on PIP, incl assessment process 1 Link looks strange, but it's Scottish Gov doc. Number of disability benefits recipients in the UK is dramatically higher than in Denmark, France, Norway, Sweden - all comparable countries. "This research has found that extra costs benefits are uncommon in other countries. Indeed, in a New Policy Institute report for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, MacInnes et al (2014 – emphasis added) argue that, as far as they are aware: ‘no other European or OECD country […] makes such extensive use of a cash benefit to meet the additional costs of disability.’7 As a result, the sample of countries examined was necessarily constrained – including only countries with broadly comparable benefits. To this end, this report presents an examination of assessment for disability benefits in: Denmark, France, New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden. Even in countries where extra-costs disability benefits are offered, their reach is far more limited than in Scotland/UK (see Table 2)." 1

If you spend so much on direct welfare payments and 25% of working age population are economically inactive, your only choice is either to cut services to the bone or to increase taxes until you bleed productive part of society dry.

We do not need more taxation. We need to fundamentally reform welfare system, it's both expensive and doesn't leave any money for investment in public services, but prevents growth.

Could the rise in numbers of people on Universal Credit be because ESA is being stopped, and everyone changed over onto it, in fact by the end of this year everyone who received ESA will instead get UC. This process started last year.
Context is important.

EasternStandard · 13/08/2025 14:54

Trendyname · 13/08/2025 14:39

So which party has been great at making good decisions? Why not update us with that so we can vote for them.

Vote for whomever you like. If you’re committed to Labour then go for it.

If posters are that loyal there’s no point in ‘updating’ them.

nearlylovemyusername · 13/08/2025 14:56

LongDistanceTravel · 13/08/2025 14:52

Could the rise in numbers of people on Universal Credit be because ESA is being stopped, and everyone changed over onto it, in fact by the end of this year everyone who received ESA will instead get UC. This process started last year.
Context is important.

Unfortunately not.

It's UC statistics which talks about all benefits.

And most recent news is that the number of UC claimants hit 8mn people last month, 2.8% up from last year

DenizenOfAisleOfShame · 13/08/2025 14:57

BIossomtoes · 13/08/2025 14:00

Very true.

I don’t disagree. The problem is that we’ve got a new head and the school thinks he’s even more embarrassing and hopeless than the last few.

Things have got so bad that the finance manager has been found sobbing in the toilets.

LongDistanceTravel · 13/08/2025 15:09

nearlylovemyusername · 13/08/2025 14:56

Unfortunately not.

It's UC statistics which talks about all benefits.

And most recent news is that the number of UC claimants hit 8mn people last month, 2.8% up from last year

I know of people who have just changed from ESA, onto UC, you have to make a brand new claim with a different department, I am sure that must affect the numbers.
I'm also not sure how we decide who gets benefits and who doesn't, because the criteria is already quite strict, with disabled people struggling to navigate the system.

It's all very well saying stop the piss takers, but how do government go about it?

I think what will actually happen in the future is state pension will be means tested, young people will have to save more into work pensions to support themselves in old age, and once the boomers die off things will even out.
We're just entering the difficult bit before that happens.

Edit to add..universal credit is an out of work benefit, so more people are losing their jobs then? You have to sign onto it between jobs, and it can take months to find a new one, do you have figures for the number of jobs available for all the unemployed people?

LongDistanceTravel · 13/08/2025 15:17
MyNameIsX · 13/08/2025 15:24

Twofoursixeight · 13/08/2025 10:30

As for your other point, there is really, really robust evidence that inequality damages social mobility. It's such a well established fact that it even has its own name.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Gatsby_Curve

It's kind of obvious really - there's a fixed amount of variation in income; the more that is explained by your starting wealth, the less there is left to be explained by your knowledge, intelligence, drive and hard work.

To put it another way, high inequality is the true social engineering, as it engineers things in favour of those born rich. If you want a meritocracy then reducing inequality should be your number one priority.

I have lived a life, by most metrics.

During my career, in Europe, Asia and the US, I have met some truly exceptional people, but the vast majority are what you might term ‘mediocre’, of various grades of mediocrity. Without the rain makers, many of these individuals would not have had the opportunity they did.

Remove the incentives for the exceptional, and you will experience unintended consequences.