To wonder how the UK will look in 3 years time?

[Labradorlover987]

I was inspired to write this after reading the UC post that was just reported - the govt’s welfare bill has passed but was watered down so unlikely to make any real savings.

I earn 40k, have a school age child and just feel like I am living hand to mouth 😩 I 100% think there should be a welfare systems that supports people on low incomes but I wonder how the current system will be sustained in the long run?

Just wondered what other people thought.

I actually wouldn’t mind paying more in taxes if we could be guaranteed more in services etc - for example my council tax just went up and the services seem even worse this year than usual.

I was merely pointing out that all these things cost the NHS money and if a lot of these pensioners could see a way of spending their retirement years abroad with their state pension + an extra amount to pay for a health insurance policy and to stay out of the country then the money the NHS would have spent on their healthcare could be saved or freed up to spend on someone else’s healthcare plus less people on the waiting list for operations, specialists etc

Surely this would be too costly? Other countries spend more on healthcare so we would have to pay them more to take in old people. Also most countries don't want more old people...

So you think if older people all left the country (after more than 40+ years of paying taxes) the health of the remaining obese population would magically improve? Of course you might also miss the 14% of all income tax that people over 65 contribute to the economy.

Angela Rayner wants to charge Central London boroughs more council tax when all the families are already heavily incentivised to leave and they are having to close primary schools left right and centre.

Schools are closing because young people have stopped having dc, they are leaving it later, having less or just none. This isn't just a London thing but country wide. Brexit also meant more European families left London.

Average weekly earnings in Great Britain - Office for National Statistics

• Annual growth in employees' average earnings for both regular earnings (excluding bonuses) and total earnings (including bonuses) was 5.0%.

Growth of tax receipts of 3.5% on the top of 5% of wages simply says that tax base is reducing.

Then this:

Capital gains tax receipts fall after big cuts in allowances

Revenue falls 18 per cent in 2023-24 to £12.1bn as the UK’s efforts to increase revenues from the levy backfire

Yes I know that this allowance was cut by Tory but you want it even more?

I dont "want taxes", I want to reduce inequality. Inequality is a threat to my country, my children and to democracy (see: Elon Musk).

I'm agnostic on how to get there. Progressive taxation is means not an end and if there are better alternatives then I'm open to them (genuinely).

This is an emergency, almost everyone will be harmed, and step one is simply getting people to see that. There are so many parallels with climate change. I remember when there was still genuine , mainstream debate about whether climate change was real, and everyone said that it would be nice if the UK was a couple of degrees warmer...

As with climate change, the solutions will be hard and complicated. But we can't even start to engage with that unless people realise there's a problem.

I’ve been away actually - reading through all the comments now.

Not everything is some big conspiracy theory!! (Although not sure what conspiracy it would be?)

Exactly, we are in a bigger hole now than we were under the tories. Clearly it doesn't work but apparently nobody can think outside of the higher taxes box.

@EasternStandard would you just ignore the "black hole"?

Yes, I agree.

I’m surprised it’s not more popular with the electorate to tackle the welfare state?

I do think, if you are in receipt of benefits, you should have to go somewhere every day (just as you would a job) I think this would surely make some people want to go back to work??

Just try to apply some brain - will this be your poorer state dependant pensioners leaving? or wealthier ones chasing the sun? so it's not just their income and VAT tax will go, but also their IHT? So I move, give up my tax residence, die in Italy, my DC get my inheritance without paying a penny. Inequality improves?

Exactly, we are in a bigger hole now than we were under the tories. Clearly it doesn't work but apparently nobody can think outside of the higher taxes box.

I'm interested in what the alternative is? I would love there to be an alternative!

Exactly. The alternatives are borrow more, cut public services or raise taxes.

We’re already in debt to the hilt, public services are on the floor so what does that leave?

I’m surprised it’s not more popular with the electorate to tackle the welfare state?

Almost half of the budget is spent on pensioners so there isn't much leg room

The state pension alone is about 40%

Ok from this and the mention of Elon Musk is the threat also from people not in the U.K.? Who is it that is included in the threat you see.

The mega rich or others too?

I’m interested in hearing more but also there needs to be reality on what higher domestic taxes do here to growth.

We’re already in debt to the hilt, public services are on the floor so what does that leave?

I think we are fucked regardless now

You're conflating more progressive taxation with higher taxes for everyone.

The IMF, among others, think that more progressive taxation would reduce inequality while also increasing growth and promoting social mobility.

Do you disagree and if so why? How else would you achieve these goals?

Can you have a look at my post at 00:35?
89% ok UK billionaires are self made, only 11% are inherited.

Those self made ones generated economic growth, employment and business taxes.

🤣 hope you enjoyed your break from work.

Tbh I would have preferred to avoid the £50bn by not hitting SMEs. Labour will have to deal with the ramifications of the NI tax. A few will want higher taxes on mn but politically I think they’ll struggle.

Reposting for @floormats

The state pension alone is about 40%

You are wrong here.
Welfare bill is enormous and needs to be cut drastically before talking about any further tax rises.

Yes I saw that. What exactly is meant by self made? If it just means that your parents weren't billionaires then it's a very poor measure of social mobility. Your parents could give you £999,999,999 and if you add £1 you're a self made billionaire.

There are also only about 150 billionaires in the UK, so the data is not very robust.

The measures used in the Gatsby curve are much better, as they deal with the whole population, so much larger numbers, and all the data (not just a binary yes/no). These show that, compared to similar countries in Europe, the UK is both very unequal and very immobile.

@nearlylovemyusername from the OBR

"Welfare spending is the biggest source of AME spending, with pensioner spending the biggest item in the social security budget (accounting for 48.1 per cent of the total in 2023-24)."

"The state pension is the largest single item of welfare spending, forecast to make up 42 per cent of the total in 2023-24"

"I’m interested in hearing more"

Music to my ears 😊

I really do think that we're all pretty much in the same boat, long term, and most of us have shared vested interests.

There are probably many things we agree on - I too am troubled by high taxes on medium/lower earners, the difficulties faced by small businesses as a result of NI hikes etc.

Maybe we should make a list of things we agree on...

I mentioned Elon as a particularly obvious example of how wealth can distort elections. It's pretty obvious that politics is influenced by wealth in the UK. Not as much as the US but that is the direction of change, if inequality is not curbed.

@Twofoursixeight you are right re self made, it's often just wealthy getting wealthier. Using money & connections to get richer, nothing wrong with that but not really self made.

No billionaire is self made. That amount of money can only be made on the back of the work of others.