To wonder how the UK will look in 3 years time?

[Labradorlover987]

I was inspired to write this after reading the UC post that was just reported - the govt’s welfare bill has passed but was watered down so unlikely to make any real savings.

I earn 40k, have a school age child and just feel like I am living hand to mouth 😩 I 100% think there should be a welfare systems that supports people on low incomes but I wonder how the current system will be sustained in the long run?

Just wondered what other people thought.

I actually wouldn’t mind paying more in taxes if we could be guaranteed more in services etc - for example my council tax just went up and the services seem even worse this year than usual.

“But what does limit life chances is opportunity, some people have very little, they don't have good parents, no money, they are always "put down" don't play sport, have no access to music or even a decent inspiring education.
How about we try to give everyone the same opportunities, as much as we can.”

As a society, we are also to blame for this. We should never be paying anyone long term unemployment benefits. It is bad for mental health. People who do not have a job should earn their benefits by getting up at 7 am like the rest of us, cleaning up the streets, learning to do basic policing and handiwork in their own locality. Nobody who is fit and young should be doing nothing.
If you look at Scandinavia and Switzerland that is what they do.
We now have loads of young long term unemployed on benefits which they then share with their parents all living together not contributing. It is not OK. Even if you have a disability the councils should be insisting on creating work for all of these people that is useful before dishing out benefits. It will help their CVs and motivation and mental health to have something to do.

unfortunately, though, all of this will be academic within the next 30 years. If some people on this Island feel overwhelmed now, this will be as nothing when climate change really bites and hundreds of millions of desperate people from the southern hemisphere need to migrate north

I think there will be more and more white enclaves in wealthy rural areas.

Which poster referred to people being useless, or worthy only for the scrap heap? Please advise.

There are consequences to what you propose. Take entrepreneurs - if they are taxed too heavily, or the investment climate is perceived as anti-business, they will simply scale back, or not invest, or invest in another jurisdiction. I cite Reeves’s NI hike on SME’s, and the non-dom reforms, and the imposition of PS VAT. There is an impact, as we are seeing.

No idea. Maybe it is a protest vote. Maybe she’s very angry and feel that the government is discouraging small businesses. Anyway, the election is some time away so I will see what she does then. Changing from Green to Reform is quite the jump for her.

Please show where i said any pp said this?

But if inequality isn't reduced, thats the outcome.

We still have some quite generous tax breaks for entrepreneurs.

Why are there "consequences" to reducing inequality? i'd suggest that having wealth distributed across the economy, a little more fairly, means more people can buy goods and services, they will also pay more taxes..... & be less reliant on in work benefits

UK has a higher relative inequality index compared to most EU countries, are we booming? have we been?

But what you don't say is how you would raise the money for what we all want... because if the money is mainly in the hands of the few, the only way is to tax them more.... which you don't want.....

Can you share the wealth inequality index you are using?
For those of us in London who have to pay 10x more rent or for a house and then are paid more at work, but taxed through the roof with little to show for it at the end- when we are told we are “rich” compared to someone living somewhere much cheaper, it grates. And now we are meant to pay more council tax too. We are already paying for other regions. Why do taxes in this country not allow dedications for local living costs and the cost of children? I have 4 children - it’s really expensive. We have more than paid our way including for their state education and this country gives us nothing back. We would be better off in most other European countries, given where we sit professionally and on the tax scales. There are no incentives for people like us and our kids to stick around.

@Araminta1003 Gini index.

Oh yes London is super expensive, people look at the salaries and think WoW but living costs are insane.

Its rocketed since i worked there in the late 90s.

And now we are meant to pay more council tax too. We are already paying for other regions.

Are you really? How very odd that Band D council tax in Westminster is £1,017.18, while in Hartlepool it’s £1,703.17. You chose to have four children and live in London. I had one and live in the Shires, why should I pay for your choices?

I'm really confused by your response. To reiterate, most economists now believe that reducing inequality would promote growth. Can you explain how promoting growth would lower everyone's "level"?

Here is a graph of inequality versus GDP per capita. Let's hope they don't reduce inequality too much in Zambia, or they might end up being dragged down to the impoverished "low level" of the Netherlands...

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gini-coefficient-vs-gdp-per-capita-pip?time=2023

Yes through our salaries and the 60 plus marginal tax rates via PAYE we are definitely paying for others and our 4 future workers with top grades will be welcomed elsewhere.

And @blossomtoes- you aren’t paying for us. You need 2 little future workers to replace yourselves and pay for your dotage.

Funny how OP never returned...

Everyone with kids who can is leaving London. It’s a combination of both the high house prices and the taxes. It is not worth staying, working all hours to fund other people working part time with top ups. You can’t do both to people- most successful people do have a brain and can do basic maths so when the balance tips against them, they vote with their feet.

If you are going as a pensioner (not expecting to work) you only have to prove passive income

Portugal €860 per month

Even Spain going as a couple you have to prove you have a €36,000 per year passive income. Which might sound a lot but the basic state pension is £230.25 per week. Add in an extra £100 per person on top of the state pension to stay out of the uk and you meet the requirements. Stay 5 years and you can get residency so if one dies you can stay anyway.

It is much easier if you are not looking to take jobs away from the people in that country.

The same pp wanted higher taxes a year ago and now we’re seeing a £50bn problem, which they want to deal with via more taxes.

How do you know the next round of tax increases won’t just do more of the same and create a bigger hole / reduction?

And who do you want to tax specifically? And how

Thats not quite the full picture... you have to be able to pay for your healthcare, insurances are expensive, most retiring will have on going conditions, so these will need funding separately.
Then there are language requirements..... & some Tax issues.

Angela Rayner wants to charge Central London boroughs more council tax when all the families are already heavily incentivised to leave and they are having to close primary schools left right and centre. They should be working on incentivising successful people who bring their kids up well and send them to school and read to them, to continue to use the London excellent state schools and get deductions from taxes to be able to stay with their children! Add in the high PAYE, the ridiculous stamp duty on pretty much anything in London now, it just does not make sense to stay.

It is the 100 billion sovereign debt. And the welfare bill. Neither are affordable and they are suffocating the remaining workers.

As for your other point, there is really, really robust evidence that inequality damages social mobility. It's such a well established fact that it even has its own name.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Gatsby_Curve

It's kind of obvious really - there's a fixed amount of variation in income; the more that is explained by your starting wealth, the less there is left to be explained by your knowledge, intelligence, drive and hard work.

To put it another way, high inequality is the true social engineering, as it engineers things in favour of those born rich. If you want a meritocracy then reducing inequality should be your number one priority.

I dread to think.
I'd rather bury my head in the sand like an ostrich.

Annoying I know but I just can't help it.....

But yours are going elsewhere apparently …

Where do you get this 50bn from...... One think tank came up with it, with 9bn as headroom....

Other economists say 15 to 20bn..... and its projected over 5 to 6 years..... missed that bit out.

Always Doom and Gloom, so as the IFS said, moderate tax increases, not the 50bn worth that you like to imply this October.

Whatever Labour are doing the pp will want more of - debt and taxes.

Where did I say I was prioritising anything. I was listing things that the NHS spends money on, especially older people in no particular order.

I was merely pointing out that all these things cost the NHS money and if a lot of these pensioners could see a way of spending their retirement years abroad with their state pension + an extra amount to pay for a health insurance policy and to stay out of the country then the money the NHS would have spent on their healthcare could be saved or freed up to spend on someone else’s healthcare plus less people on the waiting list for operations, specialists etc

Plus as they wouldn’t need a home in the UK they could rent out or sell if they own their own place or pass a tenancy onto a family member if they rent through the council or just give up a private tenancy. It would free up housing to get families out of B&Bs etc which must cost the government more than even a private rental would cost.

That’s why I said (in my previous posts) that the government would pay an extra amount to cover having their own health insurance policy and to stay out of the country

It is the 100 billion sovereign debt. And the welfare bill. Neither are affordable and they are suffocating the remaining workers.

How would you reduce the welfare bill?

The sovereign bill isn't 100bn is it? I thought that was just the interest?