Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?

[AlertEagle]

posted from another forum
Serious question. The UK’s birth rate is well below replacement level, meaning fewer young people entering the workforce. At the same time, the political mood seems pretty anti-immigration, even though immigration is one of the only things that’s kept the tax base stable.

State pensions are paid by current workers’ National Insurance contributions, not some magic fund. So… what happens when there’s a huge retired population and not enough working-age people to support them?

Will the government raise taxes, increase the retirement age, cut pensions, or eventually U-turn on immigration just to prop things up?

Feels like a ticking time bomb no one’s really addressing. Curious what others think, is anyone actually planning for this?

Or are we as a nation willing to give up state pensions if it means less immigration?

Healthy life expectancy is irrelevant.
It important to know, as an individual, but financially irrelevant. If you pay people on average to 81-ish you have to make financial calculations on that.

Healthy life expectancy is about 75. So if you retire at 67 that’s 8 years on average of healthy retirement, even 70 gives you 5, about the same as it used to be.

100% agree. Used to work as an Employment Advisor a few years ago in jobcentre and many by late 40s who have recently been made redundant from a long term career were quite aggressive in communicating they had ‘put in enough and now they’re just focussed on drawing their benefit’. Almost all had nothing wrong health wise but it was like they had their own personal mental counter to ‘checking out’ of work as it were and almost always as I learnt, triggered by a job loss within late 40-early 60 age range. Absolutely no interest in seeking more work. The only ones that remained focussed were usually decently earning professionals.

So as PP said, raising state pension age beyond 70, I don’t think will affect much as the net effect remains the same since so many people already are (and post 60s) will be claiming off the government coffers due to perceived or real health conditions still albeit by a different name.

My father has been drawing his final salary pension since he was 54. He is now 89, so that’s 35 years already. They must regret offering these early pensions, thinking they would all be dead within 20 years!

I think they also need to tackle to the pension credit rules too. So many people going into state retirement age on PIP ( which can be double Attendance Allowance) and then getting disability premiums on pension credit too. The bill must be enormous. Obviously as more people start getting more in private pensions this will go down in years to come but for now it needs looking at.

"For the three aggregated years 2020–22, although male life expectancy was 78.8 years, average healthy male life expectancy was only 62.4 yearss – ie, 16.4 of those years (21%) would have been spent in poor health. Female life expectancy was 82.8 years, of which 20.1 years (24%) would have been spent in poor healthh. Although females live an average of four years longer than males, they spend a higher proportion and more years of their lives in poor health."

"Similarly, disability-free life expectancyy_ is almost two decades shorter than life expectancy, and is higher among males (61.8 years) than females (60.5 years)."

And there there a big socio economic factors that play into life expectancy & healthy life expectancy

Healthy life expectancy is irrelevant.

How can it be irrelevant if you want people to work longer & have reduced numbers on sickness and ill health benefits?

Healthy life expectancy is about 75.

No it isn't!

"According to the most recent data from the ONSS_ male HLE at birth in England for the period 2021 to 2023 is estimated to be 61.5 years. Similar to trends in life expectancy, HLE is higher for females at 61.9 years in England for the same period.
HLE in England remained relatively stable between the 2011 to 2013 data, and the 2017 to 2019 data. Since this pre-coronavirus pandemic period, HLE at birth has fallen in England by 1.7 years for males and 1.9 years for females"

Raise pension age further / means tested = outcry

Introduce assisted dying = another way to cut pension claims, but dressed up as respecting autonomy therefore more palatable. It worries me a lot

The current labour government have just done the complete opposite. There is very little incentive to raise a large private workplace pension - its tied to state pension age so you can only access it 10 years before your state pension age, they keep threatening to reduce the 25% tax free element (its already been capped) but more pressingly, from 2027, everything left in your pot when you die will be Subject to inheritance tax and then will be taxed again when your children claim it, at their income tax rate. So its likely to be taxed at roughly 65%!

We have 18m more people than when I was born in the UK. If we could 20m then I might start to think about pensions but I will be happily working until I die anyway so I am not concerned about paying for pensions whatsoever. I just want 20m fewer people in the UK

just want 20m fewer people in the UK

No government has seriously tackled immigration because we have a capitalist model.

The only real answer is to plan a retirement where you aren't reliant on the state.

Money accrued going into an investment fund seems like an interesting approach. However how are pensions then funded for people who haven't contributed anything to the investment fund for their pension during their lives up till pension age?

The only real answer is to plan a retirement where you aren't reliant on the state.

whilst paying for all those who are reliant on the state, bit of a hard sell! 😆

I think current home owning mortgage-free wealthy 75-85 year olds should be thinking of skipping a generation when it comes to writing their will. Most of their adult children will already have housing sorted, even if they are still working and paying off their mortgage. It makes no sense to me to give their adult children all their estate, leaving them possibly with excess after paying off their mortgage, while their grandchildren are still having problems trying to find even basic housing that's affordable, and may even still be in the family home.

Yes, the parents can just give them a deposit out of any inheritance they are left but there are tax implications of that if they were then to die themselves.

So basically rather than inheritance going down just one generation perhaps it needs to be going down two.

childcare is so expensive. Its not an option for one income families these days. Its a shit storm. I doubt ill see 70 as generations of my family before me havent lived past 65. Ill die at my desk - if ive still got a job and im not taken over by AI…. 🤖

Why are you assuming immigrants are contributing to pensions when the vast majority are a net drain on the public purse?

@EggnogNoggin are they?

Exactly. If I don't get my state pension then I won't be loving and spending in Britain, I'll look to mostly live abroad and the welfare state can support itself.

I'm not rich but I am fed up. The way its going it will be better value to sell or rent the family home and use the money to travel with a decent worldwide tourist health insurance package.

Are you expecting a pension in 20-30 years time op? Lucky you.

By that time the baby boomers will have died off, my gen x’ers will no doubt die a lot earlier thanks to having had harder lives. Meanwhile all these millions - millions, op - of young immigrants we have already taken in will be gratefully paying for us out of their productive lives, in thanks for us taking them in from their terrible homelands, and their many many children will also be high skilled individuals.

No-one, because when it’s politically expedient, the state pension will be abolished or restricted to the oldest pensioners.

The old age pension age was originally 70, at a time when the life expectancy for most people was lower than that. It’s not really sustainable long term.

People can live a long time and still be unhealthy.
illnesses impact a persons ability to work. Raising the state pension age to an unreasonable age will make no difference to people’s age related illnesses. There will simply be more people on other welfare benefits.
In the long run and given current policy that means more people once they retire will have the additional benefit of disability allowances. Something that one can only apply for before state pension age

Its all about balancing the cost out

Well I clearly think so from what I've read online. You're welcome to Google yourself to inform your own view. I wouldn't want to bias you (and honestly, I don't want to spend my Sunday citing sources, im not at uni now!)

Deed of variation. No tax implications then. It's entirely possible to give away an inheritance.

Well I clearly think so from what I've read online. You're welcome to Google yourself to inform your own view. I wouldn't want to bias you (and honestly, I don't want to spend my Sunday citing sources, im not at uni now!)

No one saw that coming! 😆

If you had gone to uni you would know you shouldn't just make things up....

There's a difference between immigrants & illegal immigrants....