Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?

[AlertEagle]

posted from another forum
Serious question. The UK’s birth rate is well below replacement level, meaning fewer young people entering the workforce. At the same time, the political mood seems pretty anti-immigration, even though immigration is one of the only things that’s kept the tax base stable.

State pensions are paid by current workers’ National Insurance contributions, not some magic fund. So… what happens when there’s a huge retired population and not enough working-age people to support them?

Will the government raise taxes, increase the retirement age, cut pensions, or eventually U-turn on immigration just to prop things up?

Feels like a ticking time bomb no one’s really addressing. Curious what others think, is anyone actually planning for this?

Or are we as a nation willing to give up state pensions if it means less immigration?

You're all forgetting one thing - Immigrants also age.

If people aren't having children, what family will there be to 'step in more,' especially if we're all working two jobs just to pay for rent, mortgages and Uni?

Plus, it's nigh on impossible to get a decent job once you're over the age of 50.

That's true to a degree but it varies wildly particularly regarding how "fit" people are. Where I live healthy life expectancy for women is 56, and 58 for men (out of an overall life expectancy of 81f and 78m). In Surrey it's more like 69 for both (out of 83f and 80m).

Which is an interesting stat, places that are more economically deprived are likely to have lower healthy life expectancy so less people physically able to work longer but also less people economically able to retire early as they wouldn't have access to good private pensions / savings / high capital in houses etc.

Isn’t that the aim?

I’m 46, I don’t expect to get a state pension when I retire. Anybody my age or younger should be paying into an employer pension scheme and/or a private pension.

Yes good point. The whole future looks so depressing tbh. Think people will be having to get used to living on a lot less. I am resigned that my kids are going to have a much harder time of getting on in life than I did. Super high house prices, fewer job prospects, massive student debt, climate change. It's depressing.

Basically state funded retirement will be the absolute basics at an older age.

You want more money and/or more time you will have to pay for it yourself - which is already the case to be fair,.

I agree our expectations are completely unrealistic, and have been for decades.

The only viable long term solution would be more fixed term working visas, which would contribute to the economy without burdening it in the long run.

Many first generation immigrants move back to their home countries for retirement (where their UK pension goes s lot further). It’s actually a fairly good solution for many people, because they can afford to buy in help around the home which would be unaffordable (or paid for by the state) in the UK.

We can’t afford children now, paying for something in 30 years is not really on the priority list.

They do. And increasing birth rate isn’t the way to go with AI and automation looming.

In theory we should be rolling in disposable income.

But putting £60k into a pension each year, overpaying every penny on the mortgage to be clear for uni fees, and me not selling my inherited house because we are trying to keep it rented out until teens need a house deposit means our standard of living is lower than our parents, on a much higher income.

They retired at 60 and 65, had smallish but enough fins salary pensions and didn’t need to give me much for uni or housing.

So to attempt to give our kids something close to the start we had we are looking at £200k NET per child (I got around £30k all in)
To have a retirement at anywhere near the same time and standard as our parents looking at pension pot of £800k-£1m

It’s a lot to find. But we have decided to take the hit for our kids. And in many ways feel “lucky”

We are 50 and have been in this planning for over 10 years now. So it’s not a surprise.

Our standard of living is lower than our parents, and our kid’s is likely to be lower still.

But what to do? Have to deal with the cards you are dealt. And we are doing our small bit for the population (although not sure how much hep it will be one wants to I’ve in Europe one in Canada)

No because life expectancy is also increasing. Pension age should increase with life expectancy.

That used to how it was 50+ years ago.

I am an OAP. I think the triple lock should stop now.

There just won't be state and public sector pensions as they exist now. Was never remotely sustainable and we should have been far more realistic decades ago.

I'm not confident on how to solve that problem or negate it but I can educate our children to understand that they will need to allocate funds for a private pension and the value of a workplace pension and how to make the most of that when that starts, the earlier they start the better.

Lots of children in the UK are not taught financial literacy, generations of families have a blindspot, there needs to be an overhaul in how we approach this as a personal responsibility because the state pension is not a reliable back up imo.

That’s what the eventual aim is.

Where's the evidence for this?

Lots of people didn't in the past. It used to be 70 and that was back when life expectancy was lower.

Life expectancy isn’t increasing anymore though is it? Although be interesting to see if the weight loss drugs make a dent in the decline

I wish they would undo some of the crap financial choices ( such as leaving the EU) rather than trying to put the burden on individuals

but the extreme right wing position is everyone for themselves and no state anything so it’s creeping in

most people are worse off under such a system

It’ll be up to individuals to save up their own pension, and for the pension sector to publicise the impending disaster coming with the state pension and advertise their products. No one else has any skin in the game to sort it out.

Once enough people wake up to not relying on the state, there will be pressure for the government to scrap the state pension. No one wants to be paying NI for a benefit they’re never going to get.

Childcare cost needs addressed or it will continue to be those less economically active that have large families who do not fund the country at all , more children isn’t the answer its children who will gain employment and pay tax

Forgive me if I’m misunderstanding, but is it not the case that at the moment, we’re struggling so much because the pension claimants are baby boomers and that’s an enormous generation? Whereas Gen X is small, so as the boomers die out, it will be Millennials (another big generation) who are funding the smaller generation above them? And therefore it will be manageable?

And how do you propose the country manages that?

By saying only the “right” people can have children?
And how do you then define right?

Still partly depends on how long a person lives.

If you have a lot of people icing to 95, and pension is 67, there is 30 years person with more pensioners being added yearly.

Private pensions.

I cannot believe people are still
relying on a state pension.