To give DD school (and the SATs agency) some basic statistical literacy?

[drspouse]

DD has her SATs report with her end of term report.
She got 89 in her English grammar and 93/94 in her other English and in Maths.
This has been reported as "not reached standards" or similar by school.
As a PhD in a subject requiring statistics I know that 85 would be one standard deviation below the mean (100) and that scores of between 85 and 115 are statistically indistinguishable from 100.
Put another way, if you have to have 100 to "reach standard" they are assuming that half the children automatically won't reach the required standard.
AIBU to explain this to you and to school and my fellow parents?
DD was in a group of 2 struggling with maths at the bottom of the class for several years and I'm really proud not just that she's progressed but also that she's now in the middle of the national scores.
This is a ridiculous way to "explain" to parents (unless their explanation is wrong and it's not a normal distribution with a median of 100?)

Am I being an idiot or does OP not understand statistics? It's been ages since I studied statistics but why would the standard deviation be 15 even if it was a normal distribution? Is this because OP thought it was a standardised score?

Why does being within 1 standard deviation of the median mean an individual result is not statsicially significant? Is this not standard error which varies?

Ultimately its not the school who've said your Dd is below standard it is the government. A quick Google could have told you how the SATs scores work. It's pretty arrogant to think you can go in and educate the school on statistics when I don't think you have a good grasp yourself

Ok - I think it should be possible to calculate what you want to know. We know what the raw scores are for each scaled score and I think that it is reasonable to assume that the raw scores are normally distributed as there is a lot of people doing these tests.

We know what the median result is. (About 106 I think.) We know what proportion get a scaled score of 100 or higher (70 something percent depending on the subject) and we know what proportion get a scaled score of 110 or higher. Translate these all into raw scores and it should be pretty easy to work out a rough standard deviation and then a confidence interval.

Considering her SEND and then such a serious illness and consequentially attending for the equivalent of one half term, to then only just fall under 100 by probably one question? She's absolutely going to smash her GCSEs.

I've shared the actual distribution of scores for each previous year upthread.

My experience as I secondary school teacher is those scores will mean she is in the lowest approximately 5% of attainment and will probably be in the lowest attainment set, if they set students.

It sounds like your DC has a more complex background than others, and hopefully she will have support going into secondary school.

The national data, unless I'm missing something, don't give the confidence interval - I don't need this but just like when my DS has had standardised tests administered, I'd like to know the range of possible scores.
A bit niche, some might say, but as they put it in all reports for children who see an EP, it's not that weird to look at these.

That's also helpful to know (this year's scaled scores don't give that). So this is analogous to the point on an EP report where they say "standard score of X, centile of Y" and the centile is like your child's growth curve that they hope that a baby sticks to.
But generally it's accepted that tests have some error and that's why they give CIs.
I know I'm more or less the only person who wants to know this - and I am genuinely curious whether they release the distribution as well.

She got 107 in reading comprehension
99 in maths
98 in spag

they seemed very excited about the scores and then I read on mumsnet means will struggle to get 4s but suppose that’s the issue with comparing nationally it doesn’t take in to account other things happening at the time.

she is going to a small independent school for secondary with speech and OT provision which would likely help ?

They don't set students in her new Y7 - but as I've said upthread, we already knew she's getting some extra help.
Another poster suggests between the 5th and the 10th centile but again, because I like numbers, I'd like to know the confidence interval - it could be "really" the 1st to the 30th, or the 4th to the 11th.
I know, I'm weird, and the odd non explanation on the report didn't help at all.

Only just spotted this. A job for Monday lunchtime on my work computer I think!

this is where I’m confused though as for a child to the sats the head teacher must be sure they are
“ working at the key stage 2 level “
“ have completed the key stage 2 curriculum “
“ are physically / mentally well enough to take them.

so if those who have done the test are all working at key stage 2 curriculum and managed to get a score but low are in bottom set

where are the kids that wouldn’t reach the 80 whatever it is ?

The school couldn't have explained what you want to know, because they don't have that information. SATs scores say something about ability to learn and remember (not actual ability), motivation and executive functioning skills. That's all, but there is quite a bit of correlation between them and GSCE scores.

There's very few below 80 in mainstream. I've taught 5 I think in 15 years.

I would agree. The ‘under 80s’ will have traditionally been managed through primary, but typically transfer to special schools or units within mainstream at transition.

However, more recently special schools have become so oversubscribed that there is simply no space for these children in Y7. Temporary (unsuccessful) accommodation in mainstream or last resort home ed is then the result. I know of 3 children last year going from 1 primary, and at least 2 this year, who are having to follow the mainstream route.

Well this is what I mean, my daughters primary she just left is a one form entry mainstream primary and at had 5 with educational needs. They are all going to mainstream secondary’s apart from my daughter.
one had a play date recently and she couldn’t read a simple poster.
but going to one of our biggest state schools.

Quite clearly an academic Op who is very much struggling and not wishing to address the elephant in the room…, DD is significantly below her peers on this particular academic marker

We have established up thread that it’s not the case !

Op have you decided whether to “educate” the head teacher?

And how will the confidence interval help your DD - it’s irrelevant and not available . The bandings are in my post of 12.16.

I wouldn’t worry about your interpretation of the data. I’d worry about why your DC is so significantly behind and what you can do to help. It’s so arrogant to assume you know better, because you disagree with the scores. All of mine have gone through state schooling and have got greater depth in all areas. The Sats are not that hard!

that I've said mean in my OP when I mean median. Gah! My supervisor would have my guts for garters.

good job you started this thread before emailing the head Op

you’d have made a right t*t of yourself!

Read the thread - it’s not that she is not worried and she knows the issues her DC faces.

Oh and the end of your comment is just mean and the reason why so many children maybe academic but lack basic skills in humanity and kindness.

great for your children they can do maths and English but shame they don’t have a parent who will teach respect.

there is many children for a multitude of reasons might not get the scores your precious wee ones got !

Not necessarily true. As the kid who just scrapes the pass will have a higher Progress 8 target grade for GCSE - so the school will more likely target intervention to those who are less likely to meet their P8 target grade (over a student who has lower SATs scores and therefore a lower P8 GCSE target they are more likely to meet as its lower.)