I am intrigued by the certainty with which some posters feel sure any missile would get shot down.
Here’s ChatGPTs take for anyone interested:
1. Flight Time of an ICBM from Russia to the UK
An intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) travels extremely fast—typically at speeds of up to 24,000 km/h (15,000 mph) in midcourse. Here’s an approximate timeline:
Distance from western Russia to the UK: ~2,500 to 5,500 km, depending on launch point.
Flight phases:
Boost phase (launch to space): ~3 minutes
Midcourse phase (in space): ~20 minutes
Reentry and terminal phase: ~1–2 minutes
👉 Total estimated time: 20 to 30 minutes, possibly as little as 15 minutes for some shorter-range ICBM trajectories.
2. Likelihood of Interception Before Impact
Intercepting an ICBM is one of the most difficult challenges in missile defense:
Factors that make interception hard:
High speed and altitude: Midcourse phase occurs in space, making it hard to detect and target.
Multiple warheads: Many ICBMs carry MIRVs (Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles).
Decoys and countermeasures: To confuse missile defense systems.
Limited coverage: Few countries have systems capable of attempting intercepts of ICBMs, and most are untested in real-world conditions.
UK missile defense reality:
The UK does not currently operate its own dedicated missile defense system against ICBMs.
The UK relies heavily on early warning from the US and NATO.
The US has Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) and other systems, but these are:
Designed primarily to counter limited launches from rogue states.
Not guaranteed to stop a full-scale ICBM attack from a nuclear power like Russia.
👉 Intercept probability: Low to very low, especially for a full-scale or surprise Russian strike.
Not to depress you or anything…