I work in this sector and have 3 autistic children, 2 went through mainstream and one at a special school.
I also work for an LA in a role close to the SEND team.
The answer can't be to build more special schools. The whole concept of a special school is that they should provide something vastly different to a mainstream.
However the issue is that mainstream schools are often (mostly sadly) very hostile places for children with SEND, much more so than they used to be.
The answer is to look at the fundamentals of what a mainstream state school is. There are some any things that are done because they are just seen socially as part of school, a few examples:
Uncomfortable uniform
Formal classroom/curriculum from year 1
Sedentary learning from year 1 (seated etc)
Loud bells
Having to be outdoors at break/lunch
Academic curriculum only
Communal changing areas for PE
No choice over what sports are done at PE and the sensory implications (e.g. basketball indoors is a sensory nightmare)
Increasingly huge secondary schools
Immediate detention if you forget homework/equipment (so disproportionately affecting those with poor executive functioning skills)
Social communication based on tradition e.g. calling teachers miss/sir
Souch of this could be fixed without spending a penny of facilities and resources.
Then targeted spending on speech and language therapy, occupational therapy, emotional literacy specialists, TAs trained in social communication skills etc.
Offering vocational curriculum options from a much younger age and not presenting it as a back up option for those 'not good enough'.
We need to overhaul what the experience of a mainstream school is to make it an enabling environment for children with, for e.g. autism, ADHD, communication difficulties, anxiety and poor mental health (endemic since COVID).
However as a country we are so wedded to the social indicators of a quality school being traditional uniform, sitting quietly in rows and following an outdated and rigid curriculum it is a major barrier and this is leading to huge numbers of kids having to go to special school because it is a manageable environment not because they require specialised approaches and specialist equipment.
My son is one of those kids. He now goes to special school 11 miles away which means he has no school friends nearby, relies on LA transport etc. I know the fees for his school are 40k. With the right approach the local high school would have been suitable, he would have a shorter day, local fri mfs etc but they have no interest in doing this.
I know this is a bit of a rant. I think EHCPs are going to have to go.
They are unsustainable.
They were designed in a time were most people accepted that public funds would provide 'just enough' for a child. And many parents still realise this. But a culture of expecting utter perfection in terms of high levels of personalised provision for children with moderate needs, combined with increasingly adversarial approaches on all sides has created an unsustainable situation and someone does need to make some brave decisions that will be unpopular.
20% of the school population have SEN. This has been a fairly consistent figure for decades. We cannot move towards a position where 20% of the school population are in specialist schools. We need to rethink the mainstream sector so it is enabling for all but those with the most complex SEN needs.