Page 2 | To secretly speculate about my friends' future divorces

flossydog · 2025-05-27T20:21:22+00:00

I don't share my thoughts out loud as it'd be mean and hurt trust if it got back to them, but I often find myself trying to guess which of the couples I know are most likely to split up. Is that really bad?? Anyone else do this...?

McCartneyOnTheHeath · 27/05/2025 22:41

I spend more time than I should hoping that one of my siblings will get divorced... 🤐

MsCactus · 27/05/2025 22:41

I do this and it's been scarily accurate so far...

mnahmnah · 27/05/2025 22:43

I’m in my late 40s and only one of my friends’ marriages has ended, which I think is probably statistically unusual! But they are the ones that I always thought I wouldn’t be surprised if they did divorce.

fedup1212 · 27/05/2025 22:57

Wouldn’t necessarily say bad but I do think it’s a bit weird.

ClareBlue · 27/05/2025 23:02

What do you get out of this. A sense of smug satisfaction if you are proved correct. Transferable skills to predict election outcomes or stock market returns.
It's a bit strange in my opinion. Divorce rate has nothing to do with the liklijood of success of marriages. It's just a ratio of number of divorces against number of marriages in any one year. The reason it has gone to nearly 50 perc is the falling marriage rate. 2022 was the lowest number of divorces since 1971 and 25 perc less than 2021 at 80k. Do you factor these trends in?

SarfLondonLad · 27/05/2025 23:02

I'm with you OP. Frightening how often I'm proved right.

Playsillygameswinstupidprizes · 27/05/2025 23:06

Titsywoo · 27/05/2025 21:55

Me and DH every now and then try to guess who will end up divorced that we know. Being that there is a 42% divorce rate it is pretty likely several we know will end up this way (and we are in late 40's now).

And maybe it will be you and your husband? 😂

Crapbagg · 27/05/2025 23:06

And what odds do you give your own marriage, @flossydog ?

ClareBlue · 27/05/2025 23:06

mnahmnah · 27/05/2025 22:43

I’m in my late 40s and only one of my friends’ marriages has ended, which I think is probably statistically unusual! But they are the ones that I always thought I wouldn’t be surprised if they did divorce.

It's not unusual if you are in certain socioeconomic groups. If you are in the more middle to professional earning (not very high earning) it will spike late 50s to early 60s. This is when children are independent and finished school.

Inawhyl · 27/05/2025 23:07

Interesting. I don’t do this!

But out of all my friends only about 4 have divorced and they’re all more childhood friends /aquaintances from my hometown/school.

None of my uni friends have and they all got engaged or married in their 20s and are now close to 40. They all genuinely seem very happy and I love that for them.

Playsillygameswinstupidprizes · 27/05/2025 23:07

To all the married people who do this, it may be you next. I wouldn’t be so smug 👀

mnahmnah · 27/05/2025 23:09

ClareBlue · 27/05/2025 23:06

It's not unusual if you are in certain socioeconomic groups. If you are in the more middle to professional earning (not very high earning) it will spike late 50s to early 60s. This is when children are independent and finished school.

Show quote history

That’s us!

Playsillygameswinstupidprizes · 27/05/2025 23:11

Ohmygodthepain · 27/05/2025 21:53

I once went to a wedding with a group of guests who were making a bet on when they'd break up. It was doomed and lasted less than 2 years.

I'm divorced and it surprises me that some of my friends stay married - their marriages are utterly miserable with affairs, financial abuse, verbal abuse in drink and one physical bust-up. God knows what happens behind closed doors.

You’re divorced though. So hardly anyone to take relationship advice from.

mnahmnah · 27/05/2025 23:11

Playsillygameswinstupidprizes · 27/05/2025 23:07

To all the married people who do this, it may be you next. I wouldn’t be so smug 👀

I have no doubt that some of our friends would have me and DH down as likely to divorce 🤣

Nodlikeyouwerelistening · 27/05/2025 23:14

I don’t make a habit of this but I do have a friend with perpetually terrible taste in men. First husband was a mean old bully and the second one seems no better. Though to be fair this friend is hardly a saint and I don’t think has ever been faithful in any relationship. The latest husband might actually be her match, but not in a good way.

ClareBlue · 27/05/2025 23:14

The biggest factor to whether you stay married is if your parents stayed positively married, then your peer group, socioeconomic status and education. There are significant risk factors like early age, family role model, and cross culture and status marriages along with age gaps. Any marriage can overcome any of these, but they are the main risks.
The biggest risk is marrying a dick head.
What's your criteria for the predictive methodology, OP?

Playsillygameswinstupidprizes · 27/05/2025 23:14

TeenLifeMum · 27/05/2025 22:02

Some of our “friends” didn’t come to our wedding because we selfishly organised it for Reading Festival weekend (it was when my family could come over from USA). They apparently didn’t think it was worth it as my ex had gone round saying I was only marrying dh to her back at him… dh and I started dating 2 months after ex dumped me (after cheating multiple times) and we dated 3 years before marrying. Married 20 years with 3 dc and I still bloody love him.

We went to a very flash wedding where the groom put on this amazing light show (it was his line of work). I commented to dh it was really beautiful and romantic. Dh had a very different perception that groom spent a large chunk of the wedding faffing about on his light show project with friends that was all about him and practically ignored the bride. He was right. Groom had an affair within 2 years.

It’s been over 20 years. Stop talking about your ex.

BabyCat2020z · 27/05/2025 23:14

No, even though the stats are so high none of my close friends have divorced yet, after 15 to 20 years married. Kids are now going off to uni so this might be the time it kicks off!

Playsillygameswinstupidprizes · 27/05/2025 23:16

@flossydog are you single by any chance? You seem bitter.

beasmithwentworth · 27/05/2025 23:18

Are you married @flossydog?

ClareBlue · 27/05/2025 23:21

BabyCat2020z · 27/05/2025 23:14

No, even though the stats are so high none of my close friends have divorced yet, after 15 to 20 years married. Kids are now going off to uni so this might be the time it kicks off!

The stats aren't high. It's a miss reading of stats that people quote to predict marriage failure. The lowest number of people got divorced for 50 years in 2022. It's that a significant number of people are not getting married anymore that increases the DR. That's the real social change, not people giving up on marriage.

BumpyaDaisyevna · 27/05/2025 23:22

It’s funny but now you’ve made me come to think of it all of our old friends, school mum /dad friends and five siblings plus dhs/dws are still together - bar one couple.

thats about 30 couples and only one divorce. Pretty good going I reckon!

CandyCane457 · 27/05/2025 23:23

Yeah I do this too! My friendship group and my boyfriends combined has about 12 couples, and we’ve definitely found ourselves discussing who we predict will go the distance and who won’t. Just between me and my boyfriend that is, would obviously never tell another couple I imagine them to get divorced one day!

Playsillygameswinstupidprizes · 27/05/2025 23:26

CandyCane457 · 27/05/2025 23:23

Yeah I do this too! My friendship group and my boyfriends combined has about 12 couples, and we’ve definitely found ourselves discussing who we predict will go the distance and who won’t. Just between me and my boyfriend that is, would obviously never tell another couple I imagine them to get divorced one day!

They probably think the same about you and your boyfriend 😂

ClareBlue · 27/05/2025 23:26

That's the reality unless you are in certain specific socioeconomic groups. Nobody understands how they experience this when we are told 1 in 2 marriages fail. But they don't.