Concerned about depopulation

[Shawlshare]

AIBU to think the threat of depopulation is being massively underestimated in the UK?

I am early 50s, 3 kids and have lots of friends, young professionals in their 30s involved in the same hobby as me and nobody is having kids. Nobody wants them. People can’t afford accommodation big enough for kids, cannot afford childcare and find day to day life trying to stay ahead of the cost of living crisis tiring enough. They want to spend the weekend doing what they want to do, which is fair enough, but the UK will rapidly become extinct if this goes on for long.

South Korea is likely to become extinct as a country within 4 generations do to similar issues. I can see the UK going the same way. It’s scary and sad. I can’t see it reversing though as any hint of free childcare / flexible working etc etc is politically unpopular with so many. Anyone else concerned? What’s the solution?

On the subject of robots, a tech expert i heard on the radio a few months ago said that there are rising concerns that robots more intelligent than humans can now be made and unless governments intervene, a "sinister " robots capable of destroying the human race may be invented 😳

it's not about absolute numbers, but direction of travel.

There was a study in Spain that found when men took paternity leave and spent more time with their kids they had a much better relationship with their children but wanted fewer. Probably because they realised how much work it is.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/20/paid-paternity-leave-study-spain-men-fewer-children

There are so many reasons I don't want to live long, it is uncertain that there will be enough people to provide quality care for elderly, nor my pension pots will last long enough despite mine is higher than average.

I think it was Denmark that announced it would increase the state pension to 70 this week

Yes, there have been protests I believe. But they don't have quite the same system as us, we get the shittier deal.

@User37482 that makes sense!

But the children of the future will be different

I think the time of people having the right to randomly have kids is gradually phasing out. It's being brought about already through economic and social pressures

That's what the consequences of depopulation is going to be.

Big Fertility practices of egg screening etc will become not just used for those with fertility problems, but increasingly those who can have children but want to eliminate as much as possible risks of illness as well as have genes selected for intelligence, looks etc. We've made great strides forward in DNA screening and gene editing and I think eventually they'll be used in humans and then humans defacto

In a culture that has no time for kids or old people, the obvious next thing that no one will want is the disabled (I say this as someone disabled myself). The Government is already giving this message.

As these sorts of tools start to be used the children of the future will all be carefully chosen and planned and cost £££ to even conceive.

Having a random normie kid will be frowned upon.

So I think far fewer people will be having children or be entitled to that privilege.

Many working class men in menial or physical jobs are simply unable to continue to 70. Their jobs are more demanding and they face physical burnout sooner.

and healthy life expectancy hasn't changed much. Don't people in poorer areas have a much lower healthy life expectancy than richer areas. We will just get more unequal.

Yup, DH is very hands on, we have one, he would have in an ideal world liked two but he’s happy with one. He always thought he’d want 4 kids.

I watched this awhile back and remember it was very interesting.

Immigration is correlated with reduced both rates in both the settled / extant population and the migrant population. This is the same the world over, both internationally and within countries. For example, the birth rate in Lagos is half that of Nigeria as a whole. Cities often act as massive population sinks. They draw people in and are sustained by that inward migration, not by their own progeny. Thus, a western born person might look at a migrant family and think 4 kids is a big family, but the parents may well be one of 7, 8 or 9 themselves and their children often only have 2 children. So there is a massive reduction in birth rates among people from all over the world.

Traditionally 2.4 was seen as the replacement level, but that’s not accurate. The U.K. hit that milestone about 50 years ago, but it needs less than 2 to be at replacement level because of inward migration, and even without migration, good healthcare would mean a birth rate of 2.1 would be sufficient. Combined with increased life expectancy, this means that there wasn’t a decrease in the U.K. born population despite a falling birthdate.

@Icanttakethisanymore We need to do more than talk about it.

We need to act now.

We need to actively pursue policies that promote economic security for young people and families, put their housing needs first.

The older age group, who have more of the wealth need to start paying more towards the social and health care that they need as a group - this can be in form of insurance, direct payments, delayed payments (until assets sell) or increased inheritance tax (no it's not double tax - it's mostly increased housing value due to unwise monetary policy)

You cannot have a healthy society if you neglect the young, overburden the working age population and overindulge the retired.

@BadDinner I think there is an element of that already. I feel having dc is so much more intense than when my parents had me. I'm
not sure how to verbalise it but I am on it in terms of dc's education, saving for them, etc. My parents are immigrants so education was important but I feel like there is just so much more time and money involved in raising dc today.

@User37482 I wanted 4 but no way could I afford it.

I think the point around lots of women without children having wanted them but ‘left it too late’ is completely overblown. More likely that they just didn’t want children enough and preferred to prioritise other life goals, which is fine. The people I know who really wanted children found a way to have them. With advances in fertility treatment and technology, a woman who really wants a child can have one with a sperm donor, she doesn’t need to find a partner. If 25% of women aren’t having children it will be because close to 25% of women don’t want children enough to direct their lives around having a baby.

Someone I follow on twitter (she’s a researcher and has looked at sex and demographics). She pointed out that people are staying single for longer and often not coupling up in stable relationships. I wonder if we are looking at the end point of that when we talk about birthrates.

There are a few people in their 30’s in my family who are not married or in relationships which used to be unusual in Indian families but increasingly becoming the norm when I look at my younger family. I have the odd unmarried aunt as well and across both my DH and my family people who coupled up after they we’re likely to be able to have children without IVF (in 40’s). We haven’t really done arranged marriages since my parents generation though so I think perhaps from my own anecdotal data she may have a point. When people do form stable relationships later they have less time to have the children they want. It was ceramic true for me, by the time I got around to having a child I was in my late 30’s. If I had met my DH ten years earlier perhaps I would have had more.

The older age group, who have more of the wealth need to start paying more towards the social and health care that they need as a group - this can be in form of insurance, direct payments, delayed payments (until assets sell) or increased inheritance tax (no it's not double tax - it's mostly increased housing value due to unwise monetary policy)

They just won't go for it though, as I said upthread look at winter fuel means testing. So we are fucked really.

Also part of the drop in birthrates is from teens and very young 20’s having kids. Which tbh I think is a good thing.

I also think our parents grew up in a Britain with virtually 100% employment, in which you could have a successful career far more easily if you didn’t thrive at school. There was far less red tape for setting up and growing a business, employing people etc. The barriers to success seem to grow all the time.

The people I know who really wanted children found a way to have them.

I'm not sure, I wouldn't have wanted dc without a house or to do it alone.

I actually think a lot of women do date hoping for stable relationships. You see it here all the time, women waiting for men to be ready to have kids and then finding he’s never going to be ready. I suspect a lot of the problem is actually with men.

There are plenty enough births to keep the world going and a falling birth rate is favourable in many aspects for the planet.

In the UK there are different cultures who have many children compared to others who have less. The actual birth rate isn't in decline, it's just become more differentiated.

Means testing winter fuel payments is only valuable if it saves significantly more than it costs to administer. If put it at the 40% tax bracket and reinstate free TV licences for moderately poor elderly people because heating and company are so important for people who are but themselves and can’t get out and about easily.

The family might have male members who could help out but they won’t they need to work can’t interrupt the men keeping all the financial power

If women work, choose not to have babies they are likely to have some provision to pay for any help if needed.

It’s about the recontrol of women, get those men back at the top of the pile, just the men mind

Same here. Overpopulation was a big concern in the 1970s, and the world’s human population has sharply increased since then. A decreasing population may require some economic adjustment in the short term. But, my god, that’s nothing compared with the prospects of people fighting over water supplies.

Also, we’re already driving other species into extinction. Human overpopulation is selfish and unjust.