Concerned about depopulation

[Shawlshare]

AIBU to think the threat of depopulation is being massively underestimated in the UK?

I am early 50s, 3 kids and have lots of friends, young professionals in their 30s involved in the same hobby as me and nobody is having kids. Nobody wants them. People can’t afford accommodation big enough for kids, cannot afford childcare and find day to day life trying to stay ahead of the cost of living crisis tiring enough. They want to spend the weekend doing what they want to do, which is fair enough, but the UK will rapidly become extinct if this goes on for long.

South Korea is likely to become extinct as a country within 4 generations do to similar issues. I can see the UK going the same way. It’s scary and sad. I can’t see it reversing though as any hint of free childcare / flexible working etc etc is politically unpopular with so many. Anyone else concerned? What’s the solution?

This faith usually in my experience has larger families that live together and have different beliefs and values

Muslim people have lots of values in common with other people in the UK. They are not some kind of alien species.

Why is it a problem if Muslim people have larger families than average?(do you have any actual stats on that?). We need the people who are living here to have more babies.

Presumably because it’s the tradition to give boys the first name Muhammad even if they then go by a middle name (which lots of people do). If it really was because Muslims are taking over the country then you’d expect a female Muslim name in the top 10 too.
We don’t have an equivalent naming tradition in the UK so comparing it is stupid.

But where is your evidence, fact based evidence on Muslims having larger families or what is the relevance of Muhammed being a popular name among muslims?

I think men and women want children in equal amounts. Men just don’t want to parent them to the same degree.

I think it's already course correcting. The state pension age is continually being increased and eventually we won't have state pensions. We are all working longer and paying private pensions now. AI is coming at a fast pace and is going to cause lots of changes in the workforce, classrooms and in health care. For better or worse. Things change and adapt it's the circle of life.

Nothing. It's a worldwide problem.

I’m not overly worried about depopulation, but I am worried that we have created a society that not only does not value children, it makes it difficult to afford to have children. There are some pretty big studies that show that about 5% of the female population don’t want children, which is fine. However, a further 25% of women anticipated having children, but reach the end of their fertile years never having had them. A small percentage will have endemic infertility issues, but for most it is simply a matter of having left it too late because our society prioritised careers and other factors over meeting a spouse and raising a family. That’s really sad. I think it’s also bad for humanity, because children are a joy and because teenagers and young adults are often more innovative and creative, which helps social progress.

@Icanttakethisanymore true, I read a lot of economic stuff due to my job.

no one is very honest about the impact of low immigration and low birth rates.

Yep, that message won't go down well.

It’s not that straightforward because high immigration is also correlated with reducing birth rates, perhaps does to increased pressure on infrastructure and cost of living. The U.K. had a broadly stable population among its settled population for decades after the introduction of the birth control pill. It’s only on the last couple of decades that it’s dropped below replacement level.

And politician don’t like saying unpopular stuff… let’s see how popular it is when the state pension gets cut / means tested / scrapped, or when we can’t afford a universal healthcare care system anymore. The real kicker is these are long term problems so the time to talk about it was probably years ago but the second best time is now (not in 20 years)

The state pension age is continually being increased and eventually we won't have state pensions'
That's a hard sell to the current working population!

high immigration is also correlated with reducing birth rates

that’s interesting (not trying to be combative) but do you have a source for that? I’m interested, not trying to catch you out

I think we should not discount the role of AI and robots in the future. In my opinion jobs in the care sector, farming, construction, medicine etc will be done by robots. That is how humans will adapt to depopulation.

because children are a joy and because teenagers and young adults are often more innovative and creative, which helps social progress.

really important point, you need new blood to innovate and progress.

Agree

Not to hand. I’m on holiday. But I teach this stuff. There’s piles of data and some great documentaries out there.

@Icanttakethisanymore immigrants who move do tend to adopt similar birth rates.

Ok thanks - I’ll have a look

It’s only on the last couple of decades that it’s dropped below replacement level.

I believe it dropped 50 years ago

It’s not that straightforward because high immigration is also correlated with reducing birth rates, perhaps does to increased pressure on infrastructure and cost of living.

The immigrants are needed to work & pay taxes. As you say despite a lot of it, birth rates are still below replacement level.

That is how humans will adapt to depopulation.

But who funds these jobless humans? Will the AI companies do work for free?

Here we go. Never takes long for the eco-fascists to appear.

The real kicker is these are long term problems so the time to talk about it was probably years ago but the second best time is now (not in 20 years)

Yep but it won't be discussed. Countries like Japan have at least acknowledged it and implemented policies to mitigate the impact, no such look here.

I think it was Denmark that announced it would increase the state pension to 70 this week. All very well for people who are well and able to continue their work, but it contains an inherent bias reminiscent of John Rawls’ veil of ignorance. Many working class men in menial or physical jobs are simply unable to continue to 70. Their jobs are more demanding and they face physical burnout sooner.

Never takes long for the eco-fascists to appear.

presumable they want others to die but not them?

I think people are just weighing up the opportunity costs of having children more carefully now. I think people with small families who are choosing not to have another because of the costs are different from people with zero kids. The couples I know who want kids are pretty determined to have them the ones that don’t want them like their lives as they are. It’s less about money for the zero kids people it’s more to do with lifestyle. Which is completely understandable imo. I think providing expanded access to free nursery would be helpful for families where they are having fewer children than they would like.