To wonder how people feel about this recent Tory admission in relation to Brexit

[MrsBennetsPoorNerves]

I haven't seen any discussion about the recently leaked admission by the former Tory immigration minister about how his government had failed to anticipate the impact that Brexit would have on the small boats issue. I would be particularly interested to know what Brexit supporters feel about this.

https://news.sky.com/story/leaked-recording-reveals-top-tory-knew-of-flaws-in-post-brexit-plan-to-return-illegal-migrants-13367821

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-brexit-small-boats-asylum-philp-b2751177.html 

The Tories didn't think about the impact it would have on anything. I think they are so detached from reality that they didn't think people would be stupid enough to vote for it.

I voted remain and it’s a distraction briefed to divert from over 1000 crossing in three days.

Each time it goes higher Labour brief. Next it will be hubs in the Balkans.

DA figures are publicly available, it’s always been low in every country and we took more than sent back. It was a way in more than anything. It’s a red herring for any country which is why the EU till has the same problem.

Interesting theory. It would be unusual for Chris Philp to embarrass himself and his party simply in order to provide a distraction to help the Labour Party.

It’s not a ‘theory’ it’s easy to look up DA figures.

They are a few hundred. That is similar in other countries. No one is sending mass amounts of people anywhere under it.

If they can why do you think EU countries don’t resolve their migration issues with it?

Here you go from another thread. It’s all available.

January 2025
In 2024 Germany has asked Bulgaria to take back 8,090 people who were registered as migrants for the first time on Bulgarian territory. Bulgaria has said it is responsible for 3,297 migrants, but in reality 290 people have been returned.

Italy was supposed to take in 12,841 migrants, but in fact it took in only three.

Other EU countries, which send the most migrants to Germany, are also taking in almost no people, despite being obliged to do so. Greece has taken in 22 people, and Croatia has returned 533 people [taken back - returned means in either direction under Dublin rules which is convenient for politicians as the public assume they are talking about sending asylum seekers out of the country when it can mean outgoing or incoming], although almost 13,000 should have been.

The Secretary General of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Carsten Linemann, said that for him this was "further proof that the asylum system in Europe is not working"

"The data speaks for itself. We need a change in migration policy. We must stop illegal migration to Germany and return people from the German borders," he said.
*
in 2024 Germany managed to return only 13 percent of the migrants that other countries were supposed to take care of, while at the same time taking back 45 percent of the people who were supposed to be returned to it.
https://fakti.bg/en/world/941309-refugee-wave-bulgaria-has-accepted-290-migrants-returned-from-germany

I was talking about your theory that this was put out as a distraction tactic to divert attention from the recent arrival figures.

Are you suggesting that Chris Philp deliberately leaked the recording in order to help the Labour government?

David Cameron very clearly asked the public to vote against Brexit.
Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition, could have stood by Cameron and together they could have united to say the same thing - vote remain. But he said nothing.

I agree it wasn't thought through by conservatives (the big dogs who instigated it, probably threatening Cameron that they would withdraw support for him unless he called a referendum). But Cameron absolutely tried to stop this, whilst Corbyn did fuck all.

And the public were quite rightly confused. Some actually went on TV to say that they voted against what Cameron said, just as a kind of fuck you.

All in all a total shitshow - coercion of Cameron by the tory dogs, Corbyn doing nothing, a circus created by Bojo and his fucking bus, a confused public. What a shite nation we have here.

So you think Philp was wrong in the statement that he made to Tory members? Is that because he was lying, do you think? Or has he misunderstood?

ETA Sorry, this was supposed to be directed at @EasternStandard.

Would it have been any better if they had anticipated it and carried on anyway?

The referendum wasn’t even Legally Binding. The whole thing was an attempt by Cameron to stop the Conservative Party from splitting, without much thought of the consequences.

The Conservative Party has split anyway.

Its easy to say “Brexit has / hadn’t delivered” (depending which side you are on), as the Deliverables were so wooly, you can’t pin anything onto them.

An expensive of time all round.

I think he got it wrong and likely exaggerated something to get to another point. It was a leaked clip wasn’t it?

Anything leaked isn’t checked and it doesn’t tally with how the DA works. All the figures are online for U.K. and EU. They are incredibly low and for us more a way in not out.

Well, I guess that might depend on the point at which they had anticipated it, and what they chose to do about it at that point.

I'm keen to understand what Reform voters feel about it.

Yes, it was a leaked clip of him talking to Tory members.

So what point do you think he was trying to make by exaggerating the failure of the Tory government which delivered Brexit to properly think through the potential consequences of Brexit? It's quite an admission to make, so I'm curious to understand more.

Why would he leak it?

It just says ‘But in a leaked recording obtained by Sky News’ it doesn’t say who. Do civil servants sit on calls? Are you saying he leaked it, are you sure? People tend not to for stuff that makes them look bad.

I agree entirely. You were the one who was suggesting that this had been put out as a distraction from recent arrival figures, so I thought you were suggesting that the whole thing had been staged simply in order to do that. I did think that seemed rather far fetched.

However, it seems that we're in agreement that this is highly unlikely that the former Tory immigration minister actually made these comments in a meeting with Tory members in the knowledge that they would be leaked, so presumably he actually meant them. I can't personally think why he would make those statements if he didn't actually consider them to be the truth, but perhaps you'll have an alternative theory.

Given that the comments appear to have been genuine and not staged, I'm not sure if it really matters too much as to who leaked them. An admission like this will always attract attention from the media as it is quite a significant admission on the part of a former minister and current member of the shadow cabinet. I'm not too sure if civil servants would actually attend meetings between shadow ministers and party members?

I’m not agreeing with this even though you’re writing as I do 😬

People do zoom calls and things get leaked. Whoever did it is not CP and using it to damage. More likely someone in Labour. Why not?

Generally the competition wants to do that. They got hold of it and sent it to Sky.

Well, yes of course anyone wanting to damage the Tory party would use the clip, that's stating the obvious. Any political party would jump on that kind of ammunition to help make the case against their opponents. So what?

The interesting thing here isn't that the clip was leaked, who leaked it or why it was leaked. The interesting thing is that the clip existed to be leaked in the first place.

The former Tory Immigration Minister and current Shadow Home Secretary made a fairly frank and open admission about the fact that the Tories had seriously failed to anticipate and plan for the impact of Brexit on the numbers coming into the country on small boats.

You can disagree with his assessment if you wish, although I'm guessing that he was somewhat closer to the action than you were at the time. You can argue that it is being put out now as a distraction. But nonetheless, he said it, and that is quite a significant admission.

I'm interested to know what others think about that admission.

I’ve read his comments and they do not tally with DA figures below.

He has it wrong. There’s no great mechanism for retuning high numbers of people with the DA.

Did you read the figures in pp re other countries? Can you see why his statements don’t match what is happening?

It doesn't really make any difference to anything. Everyone knows that neither the Tories or Labour have any intention of reducing immigration or stopping the boats. "Smashing the gangs" ffs. Total bullshit from Keir and Cooper. She'll be out of a job soon and voters will continue to flock to Reform.

I understand that you disagree with his assessment, and you may or may not be right. I don't suppose we have any way of knowing whether or not the historic figures would have been predictive of what the numbers might look like if we were still in the EU now. A lot has changed since that time.

But regardless of who is right and who is wrong on this matter, it is significant that the Shadow Home Secretary and former immigration minister believes it to be the case that the then Tory government failed to anticipate and plan for the impact of Brexit on the number of people coming into the UK on small boats. And with the greatest of respect, people are going to be more interested in the opinion of the Shadow Home Secretary and Former Immigration Minister on this subject than they are in the opinion of an anonymous but prolific poster on Mumsnet with unknown credentials.

I'm interested in hearing what people think of Chris Philp's statement.

@MrsBennetsPoorNervessurely you can look at the figures for countries still with the DA and see how it works?

Our figures are similarly low. I don’t get this refusal to read facts and say may be maybe not. They’re there in black and white.

On the last point I’ve never known so many Labour supporters intent on believing Chris Philp. It’s confirmation bias at its best.

Honestly it’s just numbers. They are not made up. Nor is the quote from the German politician on why the DA isn’t working for returns. Do you believe a German non leaked spokesperson over an mner?

Here you go @MrsBennetsPoorNervesin case you missed it. He has the same view as me about data. This is with the DA in place.

The Secretary General of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Carsten Linemann, said that for him this was "further proof that the asylum system in Europe is not working"

"The data speaks for itself. We need a change in migration policy. We must stop illegal migration to Germany and return people from the German borders," he said.
*
in 2024 Germany managed to return only 13 percent of the migrants that other countries were supposed to take care of, while at the same time taking back 45 percent of the people who were supposed to be returned to it.

JC is and always has been a Euro skeptic, so why would he have spoken out? I think he kept quiet because the LP didn't have a consensus viewpoint on it, which seems reasonable.

Well, as you say, people tend not to do stuff if it makes them look bad, so I can't think of any reason to disbelieve Chris Philps on this occasion. Why would he make stuff up to make himself incompetent?

And like I said, you may or may not be right on the DA stuff. That isn't actually what I'm here to discuss.

I want to know how people feel about Chris Philp saying that the Tories failed to anticipate and plan for the impact of Brexit on the small boats issue. Even if he has got it wrong, it's still quite interesting that one of the most senior Tories with a brief that covers immigration appears believe that Brexit damaged our ability to respond to the small boat issue effectively. And I would like to know what others think about that.