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Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Is the Chancellor about to crash the economy?

389 replies

Startingagainandagain · 09/01/2025 18:02

I will start by saying I voted Labour, but I am increasingly concerned about what the government has done so far.

Today there are warning that food prices could shoot up, the pound is going down, there were big jitters on the bonds market and government borrowing is higher than planned.

More generally Reeves seems to have spooked businesses and they have no will to expand or employ more people.

I agreed that the Tories left a total mess.

But Labour seems to just go from bad to worse and I am really starting to wish she could be replaced by someone more competent to restore some confidence.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
8
Newyearsamebs · 12/01/2025 00:09

Startingagainandagain · 11/01/2025 23:58

What I really dislike in the media coverage of disability benefits is the fact that PIP keeps being presented as an 'out of work' benefit. It isn't.

Many people who get PIP work and the payment helps them stay in employment and deal with the additional cost brought by their health condition.

I also don't get the bizarre belief that if anyone declares mental health issues they must be faking it...

Government also needs to realise that employers are reluctant to hire people who declare long term health conditions/disabilities and don't always support reasonable adjustments once they are in the job. So if they are serious about helping disabled people who can work back into work they must also tackle the above.

Not to mention that WFH and flexible working in general help people with disability stay in employment and manage their condition yet employers seem unable to move beyond their obsession with presenteeism.

Mental health services are badly underfunded so people don't get the support they need to manage their condition better.

But I guess it is simpler to say 'let's cut disability benefits and we will fix the economy'. Which of course would be another epic fail by Reeves.

It’s what you voted for. 🤷🏼‍♀️

She’s been banging on about welfare for ages. Osborne was a fan of her ideas, as per your thread - she’s crashed the economy, People will only realise when benefits, welfare and the public sector are cut.

She has literally taxed people out of employment. If people left their welfare/pension/public sector/mn posting echo chamber for long enough; they’d see it.

There is no where else to go. We tax workers, especially higher earners disproportionately in comparison to similar economies. We’ve now scared business off from hiring and redundancies are around. The jobs market in many industries has crashed.

TheHateIsNotGood · 12/01/2025 00:30

I've been poor for ages. goes with the territory of being an enforced unpaid carer watching loads of incompetence on goodwages pass by. Not a shit do I care.

Let anyone crash the economy I say, I have no more shits to give.

MichaelandKirk · 12/01/2025 09:17

So we have a Labour cabinet who are massively out of their depth. They won the election because they weren’t the Tories who got in a real mess BUT the economy was showing the green roots of recovering.

The Labour share of the voters wasnt good but the way votes are counted benefited them. Lucky them.

Reeves if I am being polite is making a pigs ear of managing the economy. Whoever is advising her needs to be hauled out and fired. Thing is she agreed to removed the WFA from pensioners who are now having to rely on just the State Pension. Reeves decided to sign that off. Told these elderly people to fill in a huge form for Pension Credit if they were really struggling. What planet is she on? She has clearly never worked with an elderly person a number of whom struggle with forms and sometimes have no one to help them understand what needs to be done. Some are housebound, there is no point telling them to go to CAB. They aren’t confident enough. Then the farmers (the people who are feeding us). She tried to explain the inheritance tax rules on the news and got the explanation wrong!

Radical decisions need to be made. We cannot have these inexperienced twits in their echo chamber making these daft decisions the worst of which is that increasing NI for employers would prompt growth (!).

Problem is most of us cannot think who would be a better DPM then Rayner or replace Reeves. Lammy is woefully out of his depth too.

Who has been the most successful Labour PM in a generation? Who knows the public extremely well and for god sake has the gravitas to stand on the world stage.

Bring back Tony Blair! I am no fan of Labour but we quite honestly cannot carry on like this.

dkl55 · 12/01/2025 10:01

The war criminal and notorious liar? Please, no. Anyway he’s probably too busy counting his millions…

Dismaljanuary · 12/01/2025 10:07

@MichaelandKirk there would be social unrest for Blair to be brought back, he's the one who started the ball rolling for brexit unintentionally apparently, flooding the UK with cheap foreign Labour.
Let alone Iraq etc.

I don't know what the answer is.
But keir seems utterly robotic trotting out the right wing trope.

Dismaljanuary · 12/01/2025 10:09
  • there were definitely green shoots coming up as they would be after so many issues and reeves could have just let them grow
midgetastic · 12/01/2025 10:10

The economy would be in no better state if we had given the tories even more time - I mean if giving labour 7 months is too long ....

"Greens shoots of recovery " is a joke

It was seriously fucked and the world isn't in a good state which isn't helping and we have to improve the NHS and education and "efficiency " just won't cut it

Tryingtokeepgoing · 12/01/2025 10:13

BIossomtoes · 11/01/2025 22:06

Has there been an announcement about benefits or is this more scaremongering?

Only the usual government leaks to selected parts of the press to gauge public response I expect. It what usually happens!

Tryingtokeepgoing · 12/01/2025 10:15

BIossomtoes · 11/01/2025 18:15

In what world is a 0.3% increase in gilt yields anything approaching a crash?

It might be a 0.3 point increase, but it’s actually around a 6% increase, if we are factually accurate about it!

MichaelandKirk · 12/01/2025 10:15

I know - mad idea BUT everyday Labour stab themselves in the front!

Someone I do think is making the right sounds is Streeting but he won’t be able to do what he says. The NHS is broken and offering GP appointments over weekends… has he asked the unions about this? I went to my GP recently for a face to face. Normal working week. Surgery is large yet it was abnormally quiet. I haven’t been for over 5 years so maybe things have changed. All the GP’s work part time so maybe that is it,

Good luck with getting the GP’s to change.

Newyearsamebs · 12/01/2025 10:19

MichaelandKirk · 12/01/2025 10:15

I know - mad idea BUT everyday Labour stab themselves in the front!

Someone I do think is making the right sounds is Streeting but he won’t be able to do what he says. The NHS is broken and offering GP appointments over weekends… has he asked the unions about this? I went to my GP recently for a face to face. Normal working week. Surgery is large yet it was abnormally quiet. I haven’t been for over 5 years so maybe things have changed. All the GP’s work part time so maybe that is it,

Good luck with getting the GP’s to change.

Equally, GP surgeries cannot afford to hire more. Funding and the NI issue, they are not exempt, has made it prohibitively expensive.

Many GPs are also part time because of the perverse tax rules at 100k. Lose personal allowance and childcare. They don’t want to work the stressful hours to be worse off. I don’t blame them.

Tryingtokeepgoing · 12/01/2025 10:34

JudgeJ · 11/01/2025 14:43

Not just the economy, they try to inflict their extreme dogma on all aspects of life. The reason there is so much difficulty in schools is because people like Baker, Gove etc tried to reverse the free-for-all philosophy of the 60s and 70s and they have gone too far! For example the lack of teaching the basics like spelling, grammar etc. has led to some of the hideous parts of SPAG which in some cases are new even to those with good grammar!

It has always been the case that the left have a desire to control and manage peoples life’s at a more micro level than those that are more liberal or conservative. As a result the policies and legislation, when enacted, can have longer term impact. When done well, that can be good. When done badly, it is bad and, worse, is difficult to undo. The ones that didn’t have delivered long term damage that have held us back, in some cases for generations. I fear we are seeing more of this right now.

The last Labour government did some things that delivered long term change for good, but it also did some that didn’t. Mainly because it didn’t think through the detail. Massive expansion of higher education, even though it was to manipulate the unemployment figures, could have been good. But they didn’t invest in business, techology, defence or any other sector that would absorb all these extra graduates. Result, career and as importantly salary progression destroyed for several generations, along with growth and productivity.

The introduction of in work benefits to encourage employers to take on more part time employees (again, to manipulate the unemployment figures) could have been a positive change for good, but instead it has transferred hundreds of billions of pounds from the public to private sector since its inception.

Now the obvious thing from an incoming government of a different persuasion to do is change it, but areas like education and benefits are disproportionately sensitive to press and public opinion, and so are often kicked down the road.

And so the UK continues to flail around economically, while the politicians, of all colours, have less and less impact. And, in the case of this government, seem less and less politically savvy. How on earth has the UK of all places ended up with an anti-corruption minister being investigated for corruption for example…?

Justhere65 · 12/01/2025 12:42

midgetastic · 12/01/2025 10:10

The economy would be in no better state if we had given the tories even more time - I mean if giving labour 7 months is too long ....

"Greens shoots of recovery " is a joke

It was seriously fucked and the world isn't in a good state which isn't helping and we have to improve the NHS and education and "efficiency " just won't cut it

The economy was starting to improve by the time Labour took over, under thevConservatives. So sadly we will never know which way it would have gone.

Username056 · 12/01/2025 12:53

Tryingtokeepgoing · 12/01/2025 10:13

Only the usual government leaks to selected parts of the press to gauge public response I expect. It what usually happens!

Why would they need to do this? If it’s true that it’s only reported in the “right wing” press how does this help gauge reaction? It’s already fairly obvious what the split would be from a political voting point of view on cuts to some areas of the welfare budget.

EasternStandard · 12/01/2025 12:55

Justhere65 · 12/01/2025 12:42

The economy was starting to improve by the time Labour took over, under thevConservatives. So sadly we will never know which way it would have gone.

Yes it was growing better than expected, the OECD revised forecast

We’ll see what happens now we’ve flatlined after the GE

Tryingtokeepgoing · 12/01/2025 14:40

Username056 · 12/01/2025 12:53

Why would they need to do this? If it’s true that it’s only reported in the “right wing” press how does this help gauge reaction? It’s already fairly obvious what the split would be from a political voting point of view on cuts to some areas of the welfare budget.

Don’t ask me - I’m not a politician. But parties of all colours take the same approach. I suppose it lets them tweak things if needs be or, more likely, get the initial outrage out of the way so that when the actual change is made some of the anger has dissipated.

Papyrophile · 12/01/2025 15:40

The 'right wing' press is historically more interested in finance, money and economics than the more liberal titles. Like it or not, the Mail has always had a good reputation for its Money pages, as has the Telegraph, and it is actually the section of the paper where outright lies are not permitted.

Tryingtokeepgoing · 12/01/2025 16:50

That shows that GDP grew 0.5% in the three months to July, with services output up 0.6%. Subsequently that was revised down to 0.4%. But in the three months to April that year growth was 0.7%. So that’s 1.1% growth in the first half of 2024. It’s shows growth was slowing as well…but that’s generally attributed to election uncertainty. Who knows though.

What’s certain is that the budget was negative for growth - no one credible is disputing that, and even the chancellor has asked ministers to cease anti growth policies we hear. Q3 2024 growth was 0%, likely to be revised down. Q4 is not published yet, but it’ll be bad. So the second half will be, at best 0% I expect.

That’s almost all because of the Government talking down of the economy - the impact of their changes is yet to be felt, though of course people will have reduced spending / investment / hiring based on what’s happening to interest rates, NI and the likely impact on pay rises. We’ve already seen that retail had a pretty bad Christmas period, relatively, reflecting a downturn in consumer sentiment

www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/07/uk-retailers-cut-jobs-christmas-sales-growth-card-spending

And most forecasters are now saying that at best growth in 2025 will be 1% to 1.5% in the UK. So barely more than we achieved in the first half of 2024. The number of interest rate cuts forecast has been slashed from 4 to 1 or 2. That’s good news for you and me, who are older and savers I expect. But it’s bad news for the younger hardworking (to steal a phrase that keeps coming back to bite the government).

Dismaljanuary · 13/01/2025 18:30

The tentative signs of growth were why some tory felt sunnak should have waited.

However there was no other solutions at that time except them going

EasternStandard · 13/01/2025 18:41

Tryingtokeepgoing · 12/01/2025 16:50

That shows that GDP grew 0.5% in the three months to July, with services output up 0.6%. Subsequently that was revised down to 0.4%. But in the three months to April that year growth was 0.7%. So that’s 1.1% growth in the first half of 2024. It’s shows growth was slowing as well…but that’s generally attributed to election uncertainty. Who knows though.

What’s certain is that the budget was negative for growth - no one credible is disputing that, and even the chancellor has asked ministers to cease anti growth policies we hear. Q3 2024 growth was 0%, likely to be revised down. Q4 is not published yet, but it’ll be bad. So the second half will be, at best 0% I expect.

That’s almost all because of the Government talking down of the economy - the impact of their changes is yet to be felt, though of course people will have reduced spending / investment / hiring based on what’s happening to interest rates, NI and the likely impact on pay rises. We’ve already seen that retail had a pretty bad Christmas period, relatively, reflecting a downturn in consumer sentiment

www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/07/uk-retailers-cut-jobs-christmas-sales-growth-card-spending

And most forecasters are now saying that at best growth in 2025 will be 1% to 1.5% in the UK. So barely more than we achieved in the first half of 2024. The number of interest rate cuts forecast has been slashed from 4 to 1 or 2. That’s good news for you and me, who are older and savers I expect. But it’s bad news for the younger hardworking (to steal a phrase that keeps coming back to bite the government).

Yeh I think Labour would prefer this

Is the Chancellor about to crash the economy?
EasternStandard · 13/01/2025 18:41

Over this

Is the Chancellor about to crash the economy?
Anniedash · 13/01/2025 18:46

When the next set of GDP figures comes out and shows that the country is in a recession, then people will realize that the economy has been driven headstraight into a wall.

GDP per capita is already reducing due to uncontrolled mass immigration and too many workshy sitting at home claiming welfare, the overall economy is mostly likely already in recession.

25 years of socialism has well and truly destroyed then country.

senua · 13/01/2025 19:00

The BBC has an article today saying " the prime minister's official spokesman said: "You heard from the prime minister this morning.
"He was very explicit (that) he has full confidence in the chancellor and he'll be working with her in the role of chancellor for the whole of this Parliament."

He's painting himself into a corner again!

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 13/01/2025 19:23

senua · 13/01/2025 19:00

The BBC has an article today saying " the prime minister's official spokesman said: "You heard from the prime minister this morning.
"He was very explicit (that) he has full confidence in the chancellor and he'll be working with her in the role of chancellor for the whole of this Parliament."

He's painting himself into a corner again!

He keeps making statements that are very difficult to walk back.

The inquiry, Tulip Siddiq, Rachel Reeves.