Is the Chancellor about to crash the economy?

[Startingagainandagain]

I will start by saying I voted Labour, but I am increasingly concerned about what the government has done so far.

Today there are warning that food prices could shoot up, the pound is going down, there were big jitters on the bonds market and government borrowing is higher than planned.

More generally Reeves seems to have spooked businesses and they have no will to expand or employ more people.

I agreed that the Tories left a total mess.

But Labour seems to just go from bad to worse and I am really starting to wish she could be replaced by someone more competent to restore some confidence.

In what world is a 0.3% increase in gilt yields anything approaching a crash?

Directors of services, associate directors, heads of service, council leaders. All often career local authority people qho would not earn salaries they are awarded in rge private sector.

Some head teachers at the top of their payscale are paid higher than their private school equivalent.

Some NHS managers absolutely, those emppoyed by the CCG or whatever they are initialised as now.

3rd sector I can tell you absolutely do not earn less than private sector for all roles. A design manager role at a housing association often 80k, more likely 65k if developer aka private.

Have a look at PA roles in 3rd sector and compare that to private equivalent normally more in charity.

You totally didn't answer me.

Posted on a different thread that rumours in news outlets today seem to be that welfare budget is going to come under scrutiny as there is no headroom for further borrowing.

PIP mentioned. Currently costs £23 billion per annum and forecast to increase to £34 billion by 2029 if current trends continue.

I’d agree. But I’ve looked at Paddy Power and there’s no market as yet on if/when she will resign or be replaced.

Yes - this is absolutely right. I remember in the months post Brexit I attended a session in London specifically aimed at entrepreneurs/startups and this was hosted by a Chinese trade organisation. All very keen to buy into U.K. businesses on the cheap/find opportunities at a vulnerable time.
It’s not protectionism to say I am concerned about overseas interests buying up U.K. assets. It makes me worried for our long term security.

Are other comparable countries doing the same with ramping up the invitation for Chinese investment?

Obviously there are purchases here already but it seems a mixed bag wrt views on China and how close to be

@ThisOldThang

''Anxiety' isn't and everything is based upon self-declared symptoms.'

This is incorrect.

PIP applications require detailed medial evidence to be provided and the healthcare professionals who look after the person (GP, consultant) are contacted by the DWP and asked to confirm what the person has written.

No one is going to be awarded PIP by simply writing 'I have anxiety' on the form.

This is just Daily Mail type propaganda.

I note you haven't explained what will happen to these people if you remove their disability benefits. Their condition is not going to magically improve.

Not to mention that many people who get PIP work and use that support to remain in employment.

@Startingagainandagain

But those doctor and consultant's letters are based upon self-reported symptoms. It's clearly not the same as a brain scan that shows brain damage or epilepsy.

There was somebody posting on Mumsnet about her PIP claim because she 'was too anxious to leave the house', but her very recent posting history contained a trip to a theme park. Yes, I know there are good and bad days, but there are also people that are abusing the system. Unfortunately, it's simply impossible to tell who's who, so I think everybody except those under close psychiatric care are going to lose their PIP.

Anyway, Labour are apparently looking to cut PIP drastically, so we'll just have to wait and see.

So stripping benefits to the disabled and disadvantaged is now the key to our future prosperity as a country?!? WTAF.

How far we have fallen

Omg if this was the tories people would be screaming blue murder

The Tories didn’t dare do it

Probably not because the far left momentum etc are too violent

Has there been an announcement about benefits or is this more scaremongering?

They are generally just following the US where bond yields have increased by more. The markets are generally fine with what is going on. It’s just markets at play. No panic.

It was always going to happen. You haven’t been paying attention. RR has been sounding the alarm over the welfare state for a long time.

Her recent budget has resulted in people being taxed out of employment. The people paying for the huge state and welfare. You will all think Labour are amazing, until they cut the state and welfare. RR has found the hard way - you can’t tax your way to growth. Too much tax backfires and results in less tax.

Labour now have no choice. They don’t have enough people paying tax and those that do contribute - do so at an alarmingly high rate. Hence why our tax base is so narrow.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/10/billions-disability-welfare-cuts-calm-markets/

Non-paywall link:
https://archive.ph/6q5tQ

As far as I can see the only publications that are speculating on this at the moment are the DM, Telegraph and Geebeebies.

No announcement.

I worked with an employee who openly discussed his PIP payment.

He had IBS so couldnt use public transport so the PIP payment payed for his brand new car.
I asked him if IBS was in his family
His reply ‘Nah I just eats lots of shit!’
His regular pursuits included ‘drinking shed loads of beer’
Weekend visits to mates at uni up North so 3 hour car journeys each way, likely lots of congestion on the way.

Tickets to go and see bands at Wembly/O2 so no where near a toilet and likely long queue’s.
He regularly called in sick as he had a ‘flare up’ of his IBS symptoms and wouldn't be able to get to a toilet in time??
His life style was a complete detriment to his claimed conditions and, quite frankly was gaming the system. He prioritsed his leisure time over gainful employment, it made my blood boil as we really wanted to help him back into work but could not cope with his unreliability.
I'm all for a shake up of the PIP payments.

Thank you. Predictable.

As @Newyearsamebs says, Reeves has had disability benefit reform (cuts) in her crosshairs for months. Don’t think this is mere scaremongering, Labour pledged back in Oct to cut 4billion from the welfare bill.

I’ll believe it’s scaremongering until I hear it from the horse’s mouth. I don’t consider any of those three media outlets reliable.

OK fine we’ll just wait to hear it from the horse’s mouth.

Good plan.

What I really dislike in the media coverage of disability benefits is the fact that PIP keeps being presented as an 'out of work' benefit. It isn't.

Many people who get PIP work and the payment helps them stay in employment and deal with the additional cost brought by their health condition.

I also don't get the bizarre belief that if anyone declares mental health issues they must be faking it...

Government also needs to realise that employers are reluctant to hire people who declare long term health conditions/disabilities and don't always support reasonable adjustments once they are in the job. So if they are serious about helping disabled people who can work back into work they must also tackle the above.

Not to mention that WFH and flexible working in general help people with disability stay in employment and manage their condition yet employers seem unable to move beyond their obsession with presenteeism.

Mental health services are badly underfunded so people don't get the support they need to manage their condition better.

But I guess it is simpler to say 'let's cut disability benefits and we will fix the economy'. Which of course would be another epic fail by Reeves.