The Resolution Foundation are not in this binary world you cite, they too have an issue with the budget
The Resolution Foundation's James Smith agreed.
"Even if it doesn't show up in pay packets from day one, it will eventually feed through to lower wages."
"This is definitely a tax on working people, let's be very clear about that."
The IFS isn't that glowing either
It also warned that lower wage rises would mean the measure would raise significantly less than the £25bn pencilled in by the government.
The IFS calculates the impact on income tax and NICs would mean net revenue from the policy would be only £16bn.
Paul Johnson, head of the IFS, also warned of likely further spending and tax increases part way through the parliament.
Mr Johnson described the forecasts as "pretty awful".