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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

I'm unbelievably ill informed and stupid.

376 replies

Lola247 · 31/10/2024 10:58

Can anyone explain the budget to me in simple terms please?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
9
cardibach · 01/11/2024 13:39

HamptonPlace · 01/11/2024 10:17

USD GBP exchange rate dropped from 1.295 to1.285 after budget...

And has gone back up today…

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 13:54

CurlewKate · 01/11/2024 13:38

@GillBeck "Is anyone saying they think people should give all their money to "the government"?

I am saying we should start from a position that every tax must be justified - unless there is justification for a tax it should not happen. Obviously there are many things the government must pay for (street lights being one possibility) and these things can justify charging tax for, so we will all have to pay some taxes.

Others seem to be arguing the there must be justification to keep money - obviously people need money for food and housing so money to pay for that shouldn’t be removed as tax. But above that we should have to justify keeping it. For example, if money is in their view ‘unearned’ then we shouldn’t be allowed to keep as much of it as if it is ‘earned’.

cardibach · 01/11/2024 14:04

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 13:54

I am saying we should start from a position that every tax must be justified - unless there is justification for a tax it should not happen. Obviously there are many things the government must pay for (street lights being one possibility) and these things can justify charging tax for, so we will all have to pay some taxes.

Others seem to be arguing the there must be justification to keep money - obviously people need money for food and housing so money to pay for that shouldn’t be removed as tax. But above that we should have to justify keeping it. For example, if money is in their view ‘unearned’ then we shouldn’t be allowed to keep as much of it as if it is ‘earned’.

What do you mean by justifying a tax? The budget lays out what needs to be doesnt and where the money will come from. That’s justification, isn’t it?

Edit: on unearned income - you pay a lot less tax on that usually. That’s something that was being pushed more towards equalisation in the budget. You don’t lose more of it in tax.

DinosaurMunch · 01/11/2024 14:09

Fightingfat · 31/10/2024 12:18

This level of ignorance annoys Me, it’s all over the media. The fact inflation will rise again, that unemployment will. That growth will stall. That the path we were on has been downgraded. I’m no Tory fan, but good grief, how can anyone miss the fact the path the imf and all projections had us on now, has been reversed out. It is all over the news.

we were recovering. And now we are the sick man of Europe again. With a downward trajectory, high interest rates, high unemployment, and some of the highest taxes in Europe before Labour leave, higher than the Nordic’s.

how can anyone see the trajectory we were on being reversed out and say yeah it was the folks who got us on that good trajectories fault. Not the bunch of work experience folks who just made Lizz truss look sensible and reversed it.

None of this is actually true. We don't have high unemployment or high tax. Interest is comparable with other countries

DinosaurMunch · 01/11/2024 14:14

Yalta · 01/11/2024 08:06

4.7 million people work in gig type work

Over 1 million people took zero hours contract jobs between April and August of this year.

There are a significant number who could go self employed quite easily

It won't affect employees on zero hours contracts though. Only employers. Employers can't make their zero hours people self employed - that's illegal.

DinosaurMunch · 01/11/2024 14:16

Grapesofmildirritation · 31/10/2024 18:55

The main takeaway OP is that mortgage interest rates will go up (they’ve already gone up this afternoon) and will continue to stay up for the next 5 years. This is a shame as they were finally trending downwards.

lots of other little bits and pieces that may or may not affect you but if you are or hope to be a home owner the impact on interest rates will cost you thousands upon thousands.

as for the poster who said that FTSE reacting positively : utter bollocks I can see myself on the online tracker it’s trending down (and my own stocks and shares isa investments lost £5k overnight) . Will need to switch to gilts which of course are trending up.

Don't switch if they've dropped already. Then you just bake in the loss. Wait and they'll go up again.

Also you'd be better off investing the majority outside the UK and spreading it around different countries and continents so that you aren't at the mercy of every government policy.

usernamealreadytaken · 01/11/2024 14:17

NewFriendlyLadybird · 01/11/2024 13:16

Well that’s traditionally what the Conservatives think but they were voted out at the last election. You can think what you like but enough people voted for a party that believes in taxes and government planning to allow them to form a government.

Actually, a large number voted strategically just to GTTO, rather than positively voting FOR another party or their aims. I'm not sure this will be the governing situation for very long, certainly not in the realms of 14 years.

prh47bridge · 01/11/2024 14:52

DinosaurMunch · 01/11/2024 14:09

None of this is actually true. We don't have high unemployment or high tax. Interest is comparable with other countries

I would agree with you on unemployment. Our unemployment rate using the ILO definition is around the G7 average. Higher than Germany and the US, but below France and below the Eurozone generally.

On tax, I disagree. As a percentage of GDP, our taxes are in the top ten in the world according to the World Bank. All parties were predicting a rise in tax as a percentage of GDP over the next few years. Looking at the figures in this budget, Labour are raising taxes almost twice as much as they said in their manifesto. Unless things change, we will hit a new post-war high by the end of this parliament.

Whether our interest rates are comparable with other countries depends on which countries you look at! We are nowhere near Venezuela (59.26%), Turkey (50%), Japan (0.25%) or Switzerland (1%). However, we are pretty much in the middle of the table. Whether we will stay there depends on what happens. If analysts are right that this budget will delay falls in interest rates, it is likely that we will start moving up the table (i.e. towards being high compared to other countries).

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 15:14

You can think what you like but enough people voted for a party that believes in taxes and government planning to allow them to form a government.

Only 20% of the electorate did. It is crazy that was enough.

cardibach · 01/11/2024 15:23

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 15:14

You can think what you like but enough people voted for a party that believes in taxes and government planning to allow them to form a government.

Only 20% of the electorate did. It is crazy that was enough.

33.7% of the vote though. And I know many, many people who wanted to vote Labour but voted tactically to get Tories out (and some who voted Labour for similar reasons) so the absolute figures are a bit misleading this year.
We’ve been endlessly told you can’t use the whole electorate figure with regard to Brexit because you can’t assume who would have voted which way. Maybe the 40% who didn’t boat at all would all have voted Labour but didn’t bother because their victory looked certain? For sure I think people who wanted Tories would have turned out because it was clear their vote was needed.

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 15:56

cardibach · 01/11/2024 15:23

33.7% of the vote though. And I know many, many people who wanted to vote Labour but voted tactically to get Tories out (and some who voted Labour for similar reasons) so the absolute figures are a bit misleading this year.
We’ve been endlessly told you can’t use the whole electorate figure with regard to Brexit because you can’t assume who would have voted which way. Maybe the 40% who didn’t boat at all would all have voted Labour but didn’t bother because their victory looked certain? For sure I think people who wanted Tories would have turned out because it was clear their vote was needed.

Fewer voted Labour this time than last time. Reform split the Tory vote. If Reform hadn’t stood then it is likely the Tories would have got considerably more seats - between them they had 38% of the vote. But, unlike Brexit, it is not the total vote that counts; it is the number voting in each constituency.

I thought the Tories had run out of steam and needed a period in opposition, but I also think the very large Labour majority is a disaster. I can only hope they have sufficient ready to rebel for those to join opposing parties in order for Parliament to be able to hold the government to account on poor legislation.

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 16:17

I also think a significant portion of those who didn’t vote did so because they actively felt they couldn’t support any party rather than general antipathy to voting.

cardibach · 01/11/2024 16:30

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 15:56

Fewer voted Labour this time than last time. Reform split the Tory vote. If Reform hadn’t stood then it is likely the Tories would have got considerably more seats - between them they had 38% of the vote. But, unlike Brexit, it is not the total vote that counts; it is the number voting in each constituency.

I thought the Tories had run out of steam and needed a period in opposition, but I also think the very large Labour majority is a disaster. I can only hope they have sufficient ready to rebel for those to join opposing parties in order for Parliament to be able to hold the government to account on poor legislation.

Edited

And lots voted Lib Dem or green in constituencies where that would get rid of the Tory. You can’t judge as much as usual from the vote. It’s irrelevant in FPTP anyway.

cardibach · 01/11/2024 16:31

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 16:17

I also think a significant portion of those who didn’t vote did so because they actively felt they couldn’t support any party rather than general antipathy to voting.

Edited

You don’t get to decide that though. Decisions are made by those who do turn out.

cardibach · 01/11/2024 16:31

Out of interest, were you also so concerned about Johnson’s huge majority?

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 16:51

cardibach · 01/11/2024 16:31

Out of interest, were you also so concerned about Johnson’s huge majority?

Boris had a majority of 80, including a lot who had already shown willingness to rebel (the Tories do a lot of in-fighting). So whilst a concern, not as much as a Labour majority of 174.

cardibach · 01/11/2024 16:53

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 16:51

Boris had a majority of 80, including a lot who had already shown willingness to rebel (the Tories do a lot of in-fighting). So whilst a concern, not as much as a Labour majority of 174.

Tories don’t in fight as much as Labour usually.
I do get the concern. But I also think it’s important for a quick turnaround from Tory chaos for the new government to be able to move with few impediments, at least for a while.

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 17:29

I would be happier with a majority of 20 or so as then the Labour leadership would have had to listen to their backbenchers.

cardibach · 01/11/2024 17:43

So you want a few back benchers representing a few constituents to have lots of power?
our parliamentary system isn’t great, but if it’s the one we are having then the elected government doing what it was elected to do is a reasonable outcome.

Sharptonguedwoman · 01/11/2024 17:46

dizzydizzydizzy · 31/10/2024 11:47

Hi Rishi!

🙄

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 17:56

cardibach · 01/11/2024 17:43

So you want a few back benchers representing a few constituents to have lots of power?
our parliamentary system isn’t great, but if it’s the one we are having then the elected government doing what it was elected to do is a reasonable outcome.

As opposed to? It is difficult to find the ideal balance.

croydon15 · 01/11/2024 18:07

How come that they can't find the money for the winter fuel allowance but to reduce a pint of beer by 1p,.it makes no sense. 1p will not be felt it's totally ridiculous.

cardibach · 01/11/2024 18:22

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 17:56

As opposed to? It is difficult to find the ideal balance.

It is, but I think some kind of proportional representation would be better. It more often leads to coalition and more consensus politics.

GillBeck · 01/11/2024 18:32

cardibach · 01/11/2024 18:22

It is, but I think some kind of proportional representation would be better. It more often leads to coalition and more consensus politics.

Ha! Ruled by a mad fringe party made up of individuals no body voted for but whose party 94% of voters in their region voted against, and who represent their party not constituents?

Kjpt140v · 01/11/2024 18:40

Dotjones · 31/10/2024 11:39

It'll be more expensive for businesses to employ people so will result in a combination of job losses, lower pay rises, higher prices and businesses going under.

Private school fees get VAT on them.

There will be higher taxes if you make profit from unearned income like shares, property sales or through inheritance.

Labour lied about their plans. Even the usually pro-Labour BBC accuse them of outright dishonesty here.

"I lost track during the election campaign of how often Labour folk insisted they had “no plans” to put up taxes beyond a relatively narrow band of those they said would rise.
Looked at now you don’t have to be wildly uncharitable to conclude that was comprehensive baloney."

Not biased then.

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