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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

I'm unbelievably ill informed and stupid.

376 replies

Lola247 · 31/10/2024 10:58

Can anyone explain the budget to me in simple terms please?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
9
Papyrophile · 31/10/2024 17:51

The benchmark gilt yield has risen from 3.7% pre-RR Speech to 4.4%. That's quite a hike. For the "average" family with a mortgage, the main change will be that their mortgage rate is unlikely to fall next week.

sparklyfox · 31/10/2024 17:52

BigSmallFigBall · 31/10/2024 11:43

They also found that the Tories had left government finances in shambles and they now have to find funds somewhere.

That they didn't know the financial situation before entering government is one of the most dishonest statements Labour has made.
Plus, about 9 billion of this "black hole" is owing to Labour's pay rise for train drivers and junior doctors.

EasternStandard · 31/10/2024 17:53

Papyrophile · 31/10/2024 17:51

The benchmark gilt yield has risen from 3.7% pre-RR Speech to 4.4%. That's quite a hike. For the "average" family with a mortgage, the main change will be that their mortgage rate is unlikely to fall next week.

Do mortgages follow this even when inflation is low? I recognise higher inflation and interest rate response but this feels like a split

HonoraBridge · 31/10/2024 17:54

Fightingfat · 31/10/2024 12:12

God, at what point to labour fans stop blaming the tories to justify labours shit show. I mean cmon. It’s cringe now. The whole yes it’s very bad but it’s their fault is just bullshit we are in austerity on steroids and I categorically assure you it will make fuck all improvements, the money will be swallowed up and we will all be poorer, in fact I’d bet good money on it.

But when that plays out, inflation rises, costs rises, growth stagnates, the nhs stays as shit as it is, you can bleat it isn’t labours fault it’s all those nasty tories.

Exactly! 🎯

Papyrophile · 31/10/2024 17:56

It's one of the (multiple) factors in pricing mortgages, along with inflation.

MonkeyToHeaven · 31/10/2024 18:00

Fightingfat · 31/10/2024 12:12

God, at what point to labour fans stop blaming the tories to justify labours shit show. I mean cmon. It’s cringe now. The whole yes it’s very bad but it’s their fault is just bullshit we are in austerity on steroids and I categorically assure you it will make fuck all improvements, the money will be swallowed up and we will all be poorer, in fact I’d bet good money on it.

But when that plays out, inflation rises, costs rises, growth stagnates, the nhs stays as shit as it is, you can bleat it isn’t labours fault it’s all those nasty tories.

Given that was the mantra for 14 years of the previous government, I imagine they'll stick with that line a while longer.

For two reasons, the first it's true, 14 years of austerity has done what most sensible economists expected, left us on our knees. The second is, it allows them to avoid facing the reality that we need levels of investment we've not had since WWII, which their corporate sponsors simply won't accept.

Even being optimistic, we're not going to see the levels of growth needed to halt our decline. I expect a wealth tax to be under serious consideration in a couple of years. I'm surprised it wasn't more strongly pushed for this time.

What would you have done in the budget, out of interest, given what we now know about the uncosted spending commitments of the previous government & given the state of our public services?

Mummybud · 31/10/2024 18:03

cardibach · 31/10/2024 11:41

They didn’t lie. The only commitment they made was no increase to income tax or employee NI. The country is in a mess. Money has to come from somewhere. For some reason ( 🧐) the media is being very negative, but the stock market and the Federation of Small business (for a start) are very positive about it.

The stock market is very positive about it? The FTSE is at its lowest for 3 months.

Just because the FTSE didn’t drop through the floor like it did at Truss’s budget does not mean it is “very positive about it”. We need our economy to grow, which means we shouldn’t hammer small and medium businesses… which is exactly what Labour have done.

Papyrophile · 31/10/2024 18:04

I wqould also be interested to know which countries brilliantly managed the financial crisis without austerity and have recovered strongly. Spain has, certainly, but it is currently the top performer worldwide for economic growth. However, Spain still has a massive youth unemployment rate.

Greece, Italy and Portugal took a great deal of economic pain, and are recovering in patches. Portugal's Golden Visa attracted well-to-do non EU citizens, to bring new wealth, which has distorted its property markets and displaced its own citizens. Ireland took the path of low corporation tax, rather upsetting other EU members in the process.

prh47bridge · 31/10/2024 18:10

cardibach · 31/10/2024 17:05

The Tories would have had to pay something. Eventually, they’d have paid the pay review suggestion. In the meantime, the strikes would have had a cost to the country. None of that was budgeted for. It’s entirely their black hole.

The budget was set at 2% back in 2021, at which time that seemed a reasonable guess. Yes, it is likely that the Tories would have had to pay more than was budgeted. But it remains the case that it was Labour that took the decision to spend £9.4billion over the budget on pay rises. That part of the black hole is theirs, however much you might want to twist it to be different. In the same way, when the Tories came to power in 2010 they blamed Labour for things that were their decision.

And, of course, while they are in opposition the Tories will blame the government for things that the government cannot control, just as Labour did when they were in opposition.

cardibach · 31/10/2024 18:14

timenowplease · 31/10/2024 17:51

Which countries are you talking about?

Most of Europe and Scandinavia…

Themaghag · 31/10/2024 18:14

Well, since the Tories spent the last 14 years blaming the Blair/Brown governments for just about everything, I'd say Labour is more than justified. In blaming the Tories for the shit show that they are now having to deal with!

cardibach · 31/10/2024 18:17

sparklyfox · 31/10/2024 17:52

That they didn't know the financial situation before entering government is one of the most dishonest statements Labour has made.
Plus, about 9 billion of this "black hole" is owing to Labour's pay rise for train drivers and junior doctors.

The OBR has confirmed the Tories were not sharing accurate figures. They are the dishonest ones here. You can’t count the 9 billion - the Tories would have had to settle eventually, probably with the same figures (recommended by independent bodies) and there would have been extra costs for more strikes. They had no budget item for this. There is no world in which that 9 billion was t needed one way or another.

timenowplease · 31/10/2024 18:18

cardibach · 31/10/2024 18:14

Most of Europe and Scandinavia…

Totally delusional..

History of the Crisis
The debt crisis began in 2008 with the collapse of Iceland's banking system, then spread primarily to Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain in 2009, leading to the popularization of a somewhat offensive moniker (PIIGS).1 It led to a loss of confidence in European businesses and economies.
The crisis was eventually controlled by the financial guarantees of European countries, who feared the collapse of the euro and financial contagion, and by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Rating agencies downgraded several Eurozone countries' debts.
Greece's debt was, at one point, moved to junk status. Countries receiving bailout funds were required to meet austerity measures designed to slow down the growth of public-sector debt as part of the loan agreements.3

Debt Crisis Contributing Causes
Some of the contributing causes included the financial crisis of 2007 to 2008, the Great Recession of 2008 to 2012, the real estate market crisis, and property bubbles in several countries. The peripheral states’ fiscal policies regarding government expenses and revenues also contributed.
By the end of 2009, the peripheral Eurozone member states of Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, and Cyprus were unable to repay or refinance their government debt or bail out their beleaguered banks without the assistance of third-party financial institutions. These included the European Central Bank (ECB), the IMF, and, eventually, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).41
Also in 2009, Greece revealed that its previous government had grossly underreported its budget deficit, signifying a violation of EU policy and spurring fears of a euro collapse via political and financial contagion.3
Seventeen Eurozone countries voted to create the EFSF in 2010, specifically to address and assist with the crisis. The European sovereign debt crisis peaked between 2010 and 2012.5
With increasing fear of excessive sovereign debt, lenders demanded higher interest rates from Eurozone states in 2010, with high debt and deficit levels making it harder for these countries to finance their budget deficits when they were faced with overall low economic growth. Some affected countries raised taxes and slashed expenditures to combat the crisis, which contributed to social upset within their borders and a crisis of confidence in leadership, particularly in Greece.
Several of these countries, including Greece, Portugal, and Ireland had their sovereign debt downgraded to junk status by international credit rating agencies during this crisis, worsening investor fears.66

What Is an Economic Bubble and How Does It Work, With Examples

A bubble is an economic cycle that is characterized by a rapid economic expansion followed by a contraction.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bubble.asp

cardibach · 31/10/2024 18:19

Austerity harmed our economy. It always does. No amount of cut and paste changes that.

Teanbiscuits33 · 31/10/2024 18:31

Fightingfat · 31/10/2024 12:12

God, at what point to labour fans stop blaming the tories to justify labours shit show. I mean cmon. It’s cringe now. The whole yes it’s very bad but it’s their fault is just bullshit we are in austerity on steroids and I categorically assure you it will make fuck all improvements, the money will be swallowed up and we will all be poorer, in fact I’d bet good money on it.

But when that plays out, inflation rises, costs rises, growth stagnates, the nhs stays as shit as it is, you can bleat it isn’t labours fault it’s all those nasty tories.

Hahaha. How hilarious you don’t see the irony of this. You do realise the Tories were blaming Labour for the entire 14 years they were in power, don’t you? Constantly. Now you’re moaning about Labour going on about the Tories after they’ve only been in power since July and it’s very fresh and relevant. Have you lived in a cave, or do you just have a severe case of cognitive dissonance?

Lucy25 · 31/10/2024 18:32

dizzydizzydizzy · 31/10/2024 11:47

Hi Rishi!

Yes, Rishi, you had your chance.However there’s still some people who think you walk on water, so it seems.Time to move forward.

Yalta · 31/10/2024 18:34

cardibach · 31/10/2024 11:41

They didn’t lie. The only commitment they made was no increase to income tax or employee NI. The country is in a mess. Money has to come from somewhere. For some reason ( 🧐) the media is being very negative, but the stock market and the Federation of Small business (for a start) are very positive about it.

Was that before or after Rachel Reeves resignation

SlimSchadee · 31/10/2024 18:35

Excuse me? The gilt market is tanking and the FTSE is down 49 points.

EasternStandard · 31/10/2024 18:36

SlimSchadee · 31/10/2024 18:35

Excuse me? The gilt market is tanking and the FTSE is down 49 points.

I was wondering what people were looking at too

cardibach · 31/10/2024 18:37

Yalta · 31/10/2024 18:34

Was that before or after Rachel Reeves resignation

Eh? WTF are you on about.
Lots of positives

I'm unbelievably ill informed and stupid.
SlimSchadee · 31/10/2024 18:38

cardibach · 31/10/2024 11:41

They didn’t lie. The only commitment they made was no increase to income tax or employee NI. The country is in a mess. Money has to come from somewhere. For some reason ( 🧐) the media is being very negative, but the stock market and the Federation of Small business (for a start) are very positive about it.

What are you actually talking about? The gilt market is reacting badly and borrowing costs for the govt are now higher than they have ever been this year. The FTSE closed down 49 points today. Small Business Britain, which is the org for small businesses is begging for relief from the raised NI and worker protection rules. Not sure where you are getting your news!

Yalta · 31/10/2024 18:45

AnonymousBleep · 31/10/2024 16:50

Not the case. SMEs have a frozen rate of national insurance, so they won't face higher tax bills. Larger companies can choose whether to impact their profits or to increase prices/cut jobs, but ultimately it's an ideological one. Too many give silly amounts to shareholders and the executive team while underpaying staff and expecting the Government to supplement the shortfall with benefits.

And you think these companies are going to turn to there shareholders and say
Sorry we have to pay our employees increased NI. We aren’t going to charge more for our product and so we are reducing your dividends

Reality is the British jobs will get outsourced to cheaper continents and then it’s business as usual with less outgoings and the price of their goods or services will go up in line with everything else and the unemployment line will get longer.

hamstersarse · 31/10/2024 18:46

SlimSchadee · 31/10/2024 18:35

Excuse me? The gilt market is tanking and the FTSE is down 49 points.

I believe it is worse than Liz Truss' budget aftermath?

Viviennemary · 31/10/2024 18:46

Can't stand that ghastly Chancellor woman. Don't didn't know her name and don't want to. But it mostly affects richer folk.