Nervous/anxious/scared about the Autumn budget 2024

[Cartwrightandson]

I know that we don't know any details. We have read or heard bits that might be incorrect or just plain wrong. I also know we won't know anything until Wednesday when Rachel Reeves publishes/announces the contents of the budget...

But what we do know...it's the first labour budget for over 14 years, we've had a conservative government, austerity, brexit, covid and cost of living/interest rate increase meaning our economy is not in a good place.

Our services/infrastructure haven't had much needed investment for a long time.
Councils are practically bankrupt, some already are. Schools, housing, NHS, social care and economy are all struggling..to remedy this requires money and this will need to come from higher taxes.

There's a 19 billion pound black hole and Labour have already removed the winter fuel allowance, showing they are willing do things that are unpopular or possibly controversial..the Labour manifesto said it wouldn't increase taxes, but now they are saying they have to.

They've already allocated money for Ukraine, teachers, train drivers, junior doctors, NHS staff ect

Keir said people who don't 'work' for their income (shares/savings/landlord income) aren't classed as working people and will be taxed..

Basically this budget is going to need to raise taxes to pay for investment in services. That much we do know. But where the cuts and the tax increase will be is unknown. I don't think anyone will be 'better off'...

Possibilities.. (note these are not absolute, I could be very wrong)

Inheritance tax changes
Fuel duty increase
Income tax increase
Social housing rent increase
Benefit cuts
No free universal prescription for over 60s
Change to tax free allowance
Removal of help to buy, right to buy and alterations to stamp duty
Pension age to increase
State pension to decrease?
Tuition fees to increase
Tax free pension allowance to be reduced
Isa/bond/shares/investments taxed

Who really knows...but I think the labour comms are possibly leaking information so that we are being drip fed so when the budget does happen we already know and are braced/prepared for it.

Or what is being leaked about the budget is really bad but when the budget happens we are relieved it wasn't as bad the leaks hinted at. But it is still painful but we are more accepting because it's not as bad as it could have been...if that makes sense.

it's going to be dramatic as it's early on in their term but no point worrying about it really just wait for it then worry about it

Tuition fees are not on track to increase, I work in the sector and the message is 'not a chance'. Which is good because the amount of money spunked up the wall by Universities needs to change.

Also, it's labour, they won't increase social housing rent.

There might be a lot of taxing going on though is my uneducated guess.

From what I've heard, social housing rents might be means tested and households with higher income might pay more. I could be wrong, 🤔 😔

Personally I don't think of done correctly this is a completely terrible idea.

We don't have enough affordable housing.

If someone is in a social housing property and earning £20k a year and living next door to someone in identical property earning £70k it doesn't make sense. Social housing is affordable housing for those who can't meet market rental prices (although I think they are too high tbh).

But if someone on £70k is in an affordable home and someone on £20k is in private rental and receiving lots of UC it would make sense to look at it and see if we can change the situation.

Personally I'd prefer all rental to be affordable and all housing to be reflective of U.K. wages. But that one won't happen by Wednesday!

One of the least satisfactory aspects of all this is the way Rachel Reeves and her colleagues seem to be enjoying all this. They are gloating.

I’ve worked hard to overcome the trauma of a challenging childhood with an alcoholic father. The engine that has driven me is the determination to ensure my children are protected and not exposed to the horrors I was. I’m no fat cat, I’ve worked incredibly hard. All we have we have earned. The prospect that a Labour government can change the rules at the end of the game and tarnish all of what I have done in my life makes me feel resentful and anxious.

Our mortgage has already doubled so shitting my pants a bit. I hate that we are paying so much more for the same house

But what can you do until they announce. We will see 🤞

In what way do you think they are gloating?

I think they are obviously trying to do a massive reset of the nations finances.

One of the least satisfactory aspects of all this is the way Rachel Reeves and her colleagues seem to be enjoying all this. They are gloating.

What a load of shite

This will be quite expensive to do though.

I would feel "better off" if there were sensible plans for the NHS, especially general practice; schools, social care, decent amounts for councils, etc.

I know there will be tax rises in less obvious ways, and that I will end up paying more one way or the other, but I'm most interested in whether the money will be directed in a way that will increase the benefits I feel from those increases. That is what would make me feel "better off" rather than the actual amounts I have to pay for things.

And some of the things they could do (e.g., allowing surgeries to hire actual GPs with the money already given to them!) wouldn't even cost them much. But I don't think that sort of thing is going to be discussed in the budget.

Income tax increase

I think they've been very clear that won't happen.

Change to tax free allowance

Which tax free allowance do you mean?
They've said the income tax thresholds (including the tax free personal allowance) won't change - this will be bad for workers, as they've said that the freeze on bands that was supposed to end in 2028 will now continue to 2030. But I think it's clear they won't change them now.
Is that the tax free allowance you meant, or were you thinking of another one? I think inheritance tax is definitely a possibility (I'd support that tbh)

I fear that it will all be like the VAT on private school fees. Each hit will materially and unfairly impact a small section of society. Money may or may not be raised. There will be enough people who don’t give a shit because it doesn’t impact them. There will be unforeseen consequences.

Any money raised may be a drop in the ocean against the massive scale of our problems.

To be clear, I’m not impacted by VAT on private. I do think it’s a good example of a poorly thought through policy though.

I think thats reasonable.

I think for your average person, the biggest impact will be an increase in employers NI contributions.

Because this will ultimately impact if you’re getting paid more next time you’re expecting a pay rise.

I don't think this is a bad idea - though I might be in the minority thinking that, I don't know. There are people in social housing who earn very comfortably (I know at least 2 families in this position and they're paying around 400 a month for a 4 bed house when local private rents are probably 3-4 times higher for the equivalent size). And there are people in private rent who earn considerably less and are dealing with rent increases every couple of years and can never catch a break. It doesn't seem very fair. (And due to current shortage of housing these people are unlikely to ever get a house through the council or HA). But it is a labour government, so I presume they won't touch people in social housing..

I think they may hit second property owners ...they will also likely freeze the tax thresholds, which is in effect a tax increase. It would be crazy to tax pensions and those with savings though.. (which is something else being talked about) because you're essentially penalising people for being sensible with their money. But it would make it seem like they are encouraging people NOT to save and those who've spent any savings on frequent holidays or other stuff they can't really afford, will not be impacted at all. Surely they should encourage savings and pensions by giving tax breaks..

So if no tax increases which services should be cut or abandoned ?
Whatever they do will be endlessly dissected and criticised.
They’re either Neo liberal capitalists starving OAPs to death or 70s socialists ready to overspend and kow tow with the unions. They really cannot win. The main problem is that people don’t read beyond the headlines then come on here to scaremonger. We’re being played massively by the mainly right wing media that undoubtedly is manipulating stories. But like with Brexshit we never learn and lap it up.

It is going to be terrible for lots of people, particularly those with savings - in other words those who worked hard and did not spend every penny will be hit - those who did the right thing. Also anyone like our family where school fees are paid are likely to have £10k tax hit right away. Mothers employment childcare eg young doctors who need care at home as they have odd hours will face extra employer NI and they already pay much more than most small businesses do as other kinds of small employer are exempt.

Goodness knows what they will do to home owners -probably double council tax because you happen to have 4 bed rooms or something.

I wonder what happened to the total secrecy there is supposed to be before budgets - never had so many leaks.

Due to Truss my mortgage is insane. I am worse off we all are.

What do you think will happen? They won't come after your main home.

Literally! So many right wind media outlets and not many the other way.

It's mind boggling how people can't see through it. Forgetting we are all worse off after last 14 years.

Nothing will be as bad as the impact Liz Truss had on our mortgages or the increase in the energy bills because the Tories slowed the development of renewable energy leaving us totally dependent on gas prices

Exactly! We are so poor even compared with 2015 let alone 2010.

I don't think they'll alter social housing rents as it'll be expensive to administrate and it'll stop people from progressing - why increase your hours or take on a promotion if the change in income means your rent will go up?

What rules are going to change? What. Are you worried about them doing?
They've been clear that the revenue they will raise will be to pay for public services. We all know that money is needed for this.
Where would you like the money to come from? What do you think should be in the budget?

I think we should all be far more concerned about the possibility of Donald Trump in the White House. For the people of Ukraine and the US above all, but it will affect us too.

I can't see any reason to panic until we see the budget. The press are stirring up a huge storm of panic and outrage against something no one even knows yet. It is a waste of energy and headspace thinking about it now.