Would Russia have invaded Ukraine and would the war on Gaza have started if the US had had a stronger president

[Kartyb]

Had an interesting discussion today but sadly was a bit out of my depth due to not following current affairs (too depressing).

The person I was taking to basically blamed the shit state of the world on a weak America. This person is on twitter all day and very well informed but I know they do have a certain bias for sure.

Just curious what you think

The way I see it is that the war in Gaza and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are very different things and can’t really be compared.

In terms of Ukraine, I think Putin knew exactly when he wanted to invade Ukraine - for various reasons- and I don’t think it would’ve mattered to him who was US president. I also think the killings and hostage talking by Hamas in Israel last year wasn’t really connected to - or affected by - the US presidency, because it’s a continuation of past conflict between Israel and Palestine.

He may not have started and wars when he was in charge but his diplomacy skills were poor (which risks escalation and wars being started), he sure didn’t stop any wars and he was the cause of a violent march on the White House. So I think it’s neither here nor there, really, that he didn’t start any wars.

While U.S. leadership undeniably impacts global events, the complexities of international conflicts like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict involve numerous factors beyond the influence of any single leader. A stronger U.S. president might have affected the course of these events to some extent, but it is unlikely that it would have completely altered the underlying motivations or prevented the conflicts entirely.

The entire world has been letting Putin get away with all sorts for years and just turning a blind eye. I don’t think a change of President in just America would have made much difference. He was barely sanctioned for invading crimea in 2014 and we did nothing about the Russian government killing a uk citizen on British soil.
Even now the world are only supporting Ukraine just enough not to lose rather than to win the war.

Were they poor? He made inroads in North Korea that no other president has.

@Buyer97462

Were they poor? He made inroads in North Korea that no other president has.

North Korea desperately craved recognition from a sitting US President. To them, this represented unthinkable capitulation and weakness, not strength and friendship. While Donald Trump believes his NK round tables and 'friendship' with Kim Jong-un to be a success, nothing has actually changed. They still fire missiles towards Korea and Japan. They are a key ally of Russia and China. Trump made a key diplomatic misstep here.

You really are just utterly uninformed if you think that Trump kept Putin from invading Ukraine. Putin has been trying to isolate and control Ukraine since at keast 2014 and the first thing Trump did when he got into the White House was to direct the Republican party to strip out language supporting Ukraine from their party platform. Trump was impeached for unlawfully withholding money the US had pledged to Ukraine in order to pressure Zelenskyy to produce anti Biden stories to try to win the 2020 election. He is on the record as supporting Putin’s invasion. He would never have bothered to even protest the invasion.

As for Gaza—his son in law is planning to develop bombed out Gaza as beachfront property. You could read about it in the financial papers. So: no. He wouldn’t have stopped Netanyahu.

As for Gaza—his son in law is planning to develop bombed out Gaza as beachfront property. You could read about it in the financial papers. So: no. He wouldn’t have stopped Netanyahu.

I did NOT know that @pikkumyy77 holy shit!

Oh stop with this BS. Did you forget that Trump almost brought America to civil war with his divisive, horrible nature? That's ok though 🙄

Then, he tried to undermine democracy and stop a democratic process from happening. Because he refused to accept the election result. Which is the definition of fascism.

You need to stop spending all of your time sympathising with and listening to the lies of the MAGA movement.

Were they poor? He made inroads in North Korea that no other president has.

What inroads has he made, @Buyer97462? Examples, please. Hint: showman photograph opportunities on a stage don't actually count..... I won't hold my breath.

We haven't had a functioning White House since Obama left; for one reason or another. Our enemies have taken the advantage.

Yes, Gaza and Ukraine are sort of linked via Iran, back to Russia. The third arm of the will come if/when China has a pop at Taiwan. Can the west keep all fronts safe ?

1 What do you mean by “a strong president”?
2 Ukraine was invaded in 2014. Trump only appeased Putin while in power.
3 N Korea probably never been stronger thanks—in part—to Trump’s diplomatic missteps.
4 As other posters note above, Trump’s mess in Iran and China caused significant destabilisation in Middle East.

Not only do I think Russia's 2022 invasion would have happened regardless of who was POTUS at the time, had Trump been in office I think the invasion would have been far more successful. Trump and large sections of his party have been vocally against providing military aide to Ukraine and Trump says he will immediately halt it if re-elected.

Trump is also quite hostile to Europe and NATO, telling the President of the European Commission: "You need to understand that if Europe is under attack we will never come to help you and to support you" and "By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO".

Trump also seems to openly admire Putin, and famously sided with Putin over the US's own intelligence agencies.

I think you are parroting a theory placed by the Russians to try to influence the U.S. election.

your friend needs to learn to not fall prey to propaganda on twitter

In the case of Ukraine, Russia was emboldened by the failure of the international community (not just the USA) to act decisively all of the times this century when they did similar things. This goes back at the latest to Georgia's NATO bid in 2006 and the war that Russia (officially) started there in August 2008. But most directly relevant is the way we all responded to the events of 2014 in Ukraine, when Russia occupied and annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists fighting the Ukrainian military in the Donbas War.

The world (despite the Budapest Memorandum, which obligated Russia, the UK, and the USA - and by extension China and France - to protect Ukraine from international intervention in return for its giving up the nuclear weapons it inherited from the USSR) treated Russian aggression in Ukraine up until the full invasion on 24 February 2022 as an internal matter rather than international. Some countries in the region did take unilateral action in and from 2014, at least to recognize the war and take in refugees - Poland for example, but even they could not decisively influence the international community or even the EU to act.

In the case of Gaza, no US President of any party could have "stopped Netanyahu". Israel's retaliation was inevitable once the Hamas incursion happened. Israel has said over and over for decades under various governments led by various parties that even if they had NO international support and were completely isolated they would still defend themselves to their utmost ability against what they see as an existential threat.

I guess the question would be whether Hamas would have done what it did if there had been a different US President. Who knows? There's some merit in the expert opinion that Hamas acted when and as it did to scupper the Abraham Accords, which were introduced under Trump (and had bipartisan support and were carried forward under the Biden Administration). But it's a tough sell for me, seeing the feedback in the USA and around the world to what Israel has already done in Gaza, to think that a Republican, or specifically a Trump Presidency would have deterred Hamas. Why would it? Hamas and their handlers expected a huge reaction and they got it; I don't see how it would have been significantly larger if the US President had been someone else/a Republican/Trump.

This is antisemitic bilge. What, because his son in law is Jewish he’s going to turn Gaza into a new Marilago? Absolute conspiracy theorist nonsense.

This person is on twitter all day and very well informed

You do realise the two don't necessarily go hand in hand, right?

The Ukraine war started in 2014. Much as I like Obama, a stronger US president should have stepped in for Crimea, that caputulation was the trigger for the later incursions. Trump would not have helped in 2022 any more than Biden, but a better president might have done. We run a high risk of all-out war with Russia or capitulation and further escalation by Russia, so a decent US president would be helpful; Trump's threats to reduce Nato funding are extremely concerning in that regard. Blaming any US president or potential US president rather than the aggressor Putin is unfair though, it is the whole world that must work together in this.

Of course the invasion into Israel on 7th October and subsequent war in Gaza were useful to Putin in global distraction terms. That is the unwinnable war, where a US president can only hope to reduce escalation throughout the region. Given that Iran funded the original attacks and yet cannot be directly attacked for it, its easier to see how US responses could have made the situation worse rather than better.

🤣🤣🤣

‘This person is on twitter all day and very well informed’

Russia conducted an open act of war of Russia vs Ukraine as opposed to the pretence of the 2014 war being a Ukrainian civil war by attacking Ukranian shipping in the Kerch Strait during Trumps presidency

Can't see it. Trump tended to side with Putin, to the point that some speculated that Russia had a hold over him.

Israel is doing what it wants because it can, and no strong words from America could have stopped it.

Not a conspiracy. Look into what Kushner has said on this.

Yes

America are not seen by the rest of the world as being the all powerful nation to fear as they once were.

Isreal had the US backing from the start and always have a few words from Biden about a ceasefire is meaningless