Page 2 | to want everyone to shut the feck up already about a recession as we seem to be talking ourselves into one?

Oliveoil · 2008-04-15T09:11:59+00:00

AND I want to sell my house and need my equity to emigrate? so piss off everyone in the media and piss off everyone basically apart from my first time cash buyer [dreams]

No1ErmaBombeckfan · 15/04/2008 10:51

There will always be a demand for good 3 bedroom family houses..

I think the doomsayers are on about the fact that there is going to be a slump in buy-to-let and speculative, high end of the property market whre the profit margins and returns have being unrealistically high..

Those who live in their means are not going to be affected by the economic down turn..

Papers and medja are making a big do to about it, but there are indicators showing that the economy is slowing down...

OrmIrian · 15/04/2008 11:22

I am not worried until one of use loses a job. That's when the downturn will really bite in the Orm house. As in many others I suspect.

lalalonglegs · 15/04/2008 12:27

I am a journalist and pmsl a idea that the Meeja is creating a crisis. Are reporters meant to look the other way when stock market plunges/RICS reports lowest confidence in three decades/banks withdraw most affordable mortgages? Is that not news or should we just fill up pages with pictures of fluffy kittens to make us all feel warm inside? Would it not be a bit irresponsible NOT to flag this up or should we pretend it's not happening and let people pay through the nose for a diminishing asset?

Kirsty Allsopp claimed in Guardian last week that all journalists must live in rented accommodation and be desperate for a property slump. Not as desperate as she is, I would think, to prove that, in her own words, prices never go down.

soopermum1 · 15/04/2008 12:59

IMO, the only people who will be in serious trouble with a downturn in house prices are those who bought at the top end of the 'peak' and for whatever reason need to sell and need the cash, but not buy another house.

if you bought a while ago, even if it's not the house you're currently living in, chances are you'll have enough equity to tide you through.

if you do end up in negative equity, if you have no reason to come off the property market, then you should be OK to sit it out and for prices to come back up again, albeit slowly.

if there is a downturn in houseprices in oz, it should all even itself out.

Upwind · 15/04/2008 13:05

Olive Oil - if you are going to Oz you will need less equity when you get there. See here This is a global credit crunch. We are just particularly exposed to it in the UK thanks to feckless policies on housing. The media are reporting what is happening, not making it happen.

The ones who lose out from house prices falling are the people who have been speculating on house prices rising through buy-to-let investments. And people who are expecting an inheritance, but given that house prices have trebled in a short space of time I can't shed tears for either lot. There might also be a small number who need to sell up while in negative equity.

The winners will be the less well off and anyone buying for the first time. And anyone trading up. And anyone with children

OrmIrian · 15/04/2008 13:34

My mum was worrying about house price falls. She is worried that when she and dad die we will have less to inherit. But as both DB and I would be using the money to buy bigger houses (well we would, not sure about DB I suppose) we still wouldn't really lose out.

ConnorTraceptive · 15/04/2008 13:42

I don't know necessarily about house prices but things are changing, DH is an electrician and sub contracts on many new build estates - his earnings have been down by 25% since before xmas as so much work has been put on hold as houses aren't selling. We're starting to feel the pinch.

nkf · 15/04/2008 13:44

The idea that it's a few hacks talking the world into recession is very amusing. There's no doubt the media has power but there are limits you know.

newgirl · 15/04/2008 13:52

am i the only one who feels better off at the mo? I have more work than I can take on, the food and clothes i buy seem to be cheaper and organic, our holiday is cheaper this year, i seem to be going out a lot, we are in a nice house and are planning some work on it

i feel much better off than say, three years ago.

i promise i am not trying to show off - i just dont get this recession talk at all

newgirl · 15/04/2008 13:52

am i the only one who feels better off at the mo? I have more work than I can take on, the food and clothes i buy seem to be cheaper and organic, our holiday is cheaper this year, i seem to be going out a lot, we are in a nice house and are planning some work on it

i feel much better off than say, three years ago.

i promise i am not trying to show off - i just dont get this recession talk at all

newgirl · 15/04/2008 13:54

excuse the echo

OrmIrian · 15/04/2008 13:54

connortraceptive - that's what's worrying me. DH is a carpenter. He's already leaving the house at 6am because they only long-term contract they could get is in Wiltshire. Nothing else lined up for when this finishes atm.

ConnorTraceptive · 15/04/2008 13:57

I can understand why it seem sthat way for you newgirl - I guess it depends on your profession as to when and how hard you get hit. No-one else around us seems to be being affected I guess it's just because dh works in an industry that is directly related to house sales at the moment so we are feeling it sooner.

6 months ago we were pretty much like yourself

AliciaJohns · 15/04/2008 13:57

I totally agree with the OP. We are trying to sell our house at the moment as well. The media seems to contrive some excuse to talk about recession or "credit crunch" every day. If they just shut up about it instead of trying to make news about nothing it would probably settle down (said with optimistic total lack of knowledge about economics ).......

Upwind · 15/04/2008 14:05

The problem is that the banks are not lending money. It wouldn't matter if every newspaper let Kirsty Allsop pick the headlines, with less money available to be pumped in to the housing market, prices have to come down. That is the credit crunch, and it really worries me.

LoveMyGirls · 15/04/2008 14:14

I sort of agree with newgirl in a way prices for petrol, food, council tax etc have all risen but at the same time because we're a young couple (mid 20's) we are starting to be able to earn more money than we previously did as we are becoming more qualified (dp is about to get a pay rise) we've also had our 2 dd's so I won't (hopefully) be having any more mat leave we haven't brought a house yet and will probably do that in 5 years when dd's are a bit older.

We've also booked 2 weekends away and a few nights out this year (the past 2 to 3 years have been quite hard, we had dd2, I set up a business and had to work 2 jobs, our cars kept breaking down one after the other for about 18mths at least!) so we are now planning to enjoy ourselves a bit but i did watch the panarama thing and am a bit worried (as I don't understand politics) that it could all come crashing down around us, we've been working extremely hard and could do with a break!

Chocolateteapot · 15/04/2008 14:19

I have just had a phone call from the mortgage broker we've used for years. Apparently UCB won't re-mortgage/have pulled deal that he applied for so he has had to go with a different lender. Same rates but £240 valuation fee whereas the previous one was free.

We bought the house and moved into it 8 years ago, stayed for a year or so then moved out, renting it out. It is two flats and has been since the 60s. We have never had any problems remortgaging it until this time round. It's freehold and no one will touch it until both flats have been changed to leasehold, so are having to sort that. Just been told by solicitor that we need plans which weren't previously quoted for so that is another £250 plus as well that has suddenly appeared. I am not feeling very well off at all today.

Niecie · 15/04/2008 14:32

I kind of agree with the OP - we do talk ourselves in to trouble imo.

I am not sure it is all the media's fault though. Just say the words 'stock market crash' and people start selling shares when there is no need - it is a matter of psychology not economics to sell and it only takes a market rumour not necessarily the media at all. A bit like Northern Rock - after borrowing from the gov't the bank was entirely solvent until the customers started to withdraw their money left right and centre.

And we aren't technically in recession as somebody said because we still have positive growth.

Can't see how holidays are cheaper this year though, not at home or in Europe. The £ to Euro rate is dire. We have just got back from a long weekend in France and it has made everything very expensive. I suppose if you are holidaying in America you would be OK though.

newgirl · 15/04/2008 15:59

i think our holiday is cheaper as it is a package deal that includes food - it is nearly £200 cheaper than last year. I dont think everyone is broke - I tried to rent a cottage in suffolk in aug and most are fully booked in July and August. Someone somewhere is doing just fine. I think the fact that we got our mortgage ten years ago, we borrowed 3 times our combined salary. Recently people were allowed to borrow 5 times - surely this is obviously a bad idea and not sustainable? I think things are just getting more sensible.

jojosmaman · 15/04/2008 16:23

Sadly, I wish it was true OP, but in my industry (importing for retailers) we have been witnessing a slump for about 18 months and in that time about three of my retail customers have gone bust (Pilot, Morgan, Internacionale/ Au Naturel) and there is talk of two well known high street retaliers going the same way over the next couple of weeks.

Maybe these arent necessarily casualties of a recesession as such, possibly more of being pushed out by Tesco/ Asda/ Primark but a sign of the times.

PenelopePitstops · 15/04/2008 16:30

NOt much to add except the IMF has declared the US as being in the start of a reccession and this will impact on us.

It will hit people hardest who bought houses in the last slump and remortgaged to live a luxury lifestyle and now have no equity left in their propety. Most people will be able to ride through the storm, maybe living more thriftly.

PenelopePitstops · 15/04/2008 16:30

NOt much to add except the IMF has declared the US as being in the start of a reccession and this will impact on us.

It will hit people hardest who bought houses in the last slump and remortgaged to live a luxury lifestyle and now have no equity left in their propety. Most people will be able to ride through the storm, maybe living more thriftly.

PenelopePitstops · 15/04/2008 16:31

Oh dear i have an echo now aswell!

Just to add fdont think its the media, there is high financial uncertaincy with falling stock market etc, the media are just reporting what they see and hear.

frogs · 15/04/2008 16:31

OrmIrian -- does your dh want to come and build us some cupboards and a bath surround?

Flamestar · 15/04/2008 16:42

I hate the way talks of recession etc are making me feel like I have to be a grown up suddenly.

We are fairly lucky, we don't have a massive income, but we rent so our home is going to cost the same for a while, we are paying off a loan, but we're getting there, and we do have areas we can cut back on to get by if needs be (petrol prices are just getting bloody silly, but DD didn't overly appreciate walking home for 30mins after a full day at school - even my whirlwind child was getting tired!).

I know DH wants a house price slump so we could buy, but I have no idea where he thinks we would get a deposit from anyway

I don't know enough (due to my burying head in sand lifestyle) to say if there is one coming or not, I will just do what I always do - try to live sensibly and hope we make it through.