I spoke to a scientist about this. There are three main ‘causes’ of autism - two which cause intellectual disability, and one which doesn’t.
The first (Group 1) is a massive genetic mutation (or major congenital damage), which leads to children with major intellectual disability, epilepsy, etc. etc These are children who get diagnosed very early, end up in special school, and have very high support needs into adulthood. They are largely in families with no history of autism.
The second (Group 2) are ‘copy number’ genetic variations. These cause mild intellectual disability, but - again - largely aren’t uncomplicated inherited from parents. Again, the kids usually end up in special school and often have co-associated conditions.
The third (Group 3) is where the kids have inherited autistic traits from one, or more, family members. Increasingly, these kids get diagnosed in childhood and you’ll find whole families where every child, or almost every child, has a diagnosis of ADHD, autism or both. These children are healthy, of average, or above average, intelligence, and they usually have an autistic parent or grandparent. They don’t have any co-associated conditions that aren’t shared with a family member (i.e. if you get arthritis or migraines, your kids probably will).
It turns out there’s vastly more Group 3 than Groups 1 & 2, probably 10x more, but most adults in Group 3 were never diagnosed. About a third of diagnosed-autistic adults aged 30-50 registered with GPs in the UK have a learning disability. Only 10% of autistic children diagnosed under 10 do (90% don’t).
As such, there’s now a huge fight within the autism community between parents of kids in Groups 1 & 2, who view autism as a disaster that needs curing, and families of people where literally everyone is autistic (or ‘broader autistic phenotype’), who see themselves as ‘neurodivergent’, and simply requiring some adjustments to live a happy, productive life.
Most research was done on people who are now adults and, as such, most autism resources assume the vast majority of autistic people have learning disabilities. This isn’t the situation on the ground and it’s obvious that researchers haven’t yet caught up. Some of the increased diagnosis is due to changing classroom settings (e.g. talking in class for group work) along with powerful noisy new technologies, such as Dyson hand driers, which many autistic kids struggle with.