To think good school places will be even harder to find next year because of the VAT on school fees

[Nesca1]

We are are looking at secondary schools for DS. We have our eye on a decent school bang in the middle of a solid middle class area . The school is always over subscribed; this year we would have gotten a place but last year we would have missed out because of how far we are from the school.
Usually, the school offers places to children living 1600m away, last year it was 1400m due to a large number of sibling applications.

Due to the whole VAT issue, i think more parents from the local area are going to be sending their kids to this school, rather than sending them to private schools.

Is this a reasonable assumption? I don't think parents will wait for the policy to be enacted, but they will move their year 6 children into this school.

Your arrogance illustrates beautifully why I wouldn't want my children going to private school.

I don't think it will make much difference tbh. My youngest is going to start at an independent because I am not happy with the education his older brother is getting at a comprehensive. This has nothing to do with sport or wanting him to mix with a certain type of child. It's about things like having a maths teacher rather than cover lessons with worksheets.

Anyway despite the vat change coming in I found the 11 plus to be quite competitive. DS is pretty good at maths, reads fluently but isn't great at spelling. We applied to a variety of schools and only got one offer. So I think demand for independents will hold up at least around London.

I think the apparent prejudice by universities against private school pupils is vastly overstated as well. I was looking at the Oxford entrance criteria for medicine and just one seven at gcse would make it hard to succeed. In what way is any of this fair when a child at a state school could quite easily have had to teach themselves one of their subjects from cgp books!

"It's a bi-product that is not based on altruism. It's insulting to people's intelligence that it be dressed up as such". @StarlingsForever I never said it was about altruism. I don't think anyone said it's about altruism. I'm saying, as an economist, there are social benefits from private education. They arise when people buy education and they disappear if this policy harms private education.

this is a bad policy for the country and for state schools, and I back up my claims with actual evidence.

"Nonsensical that market force arguments be applied to the state sector when it is a public service and there is no direct monetary transaction for the provision of the service. The only free market element is the private one which is characterised by direct choice based on money changing hands" @StarlingsForever the state operates in a market, any economist will tell you the same and that the state's a monopolist. If you wear equality blinkers you don't WANT to acknowledge it's a market and the monopolist distorts competition, but it's nonetheless true. And "nonsensical" to pretend otherwise. I don't know what your area of expertise is, but this is mine.

And you really should stop splitting hairs over phrasing state school as free in a discussion about private school fees – it’s rather boring. @Didimum if it was clear that people understood that state schools aren't "free" then I wouldn't have to. Sorry to harp on about truth and facts. The entire complaint about "tax breaks" makes no sense without comparison with the per-pupil funding of state schools per chart below.

You're all entitled to your opinions and I'm entitled to keep pointing out the adverse consequences of your opinions. Harming private schools is atrocious policy which is why nobody else in the world is dumb enough to do it. Greece tried and it caused, according to The Economist, "general mayhem"

Facts and logic. Private school is terrific for society. For all you guys being upset, for all the contradictions, none of you has a single argument otherwise.

So go ahead, keep telling me private school isn't a public service. Because really, what you're all asserting is that private school parents should give up the particular effort of earning school fees, demand an unfunded non-existent state school place, stop earning (say)£100-£150k and, like many state school families, kick back on £60-80k with a stackload less work, tax and stress...losing the country on average £30k per child (see chart above).

I'm open to persuasion how that makes the country a better place.

With Labour yet to crunch the numbers it’s only fair that academics, statisticians and economists will analyse this policy.
Someone has to and as @MisterChips has pointed out economically there is no basis for such a mad policy that has come to light as yet.
Lets not forget this policy is being sold to the electorate based on economic benefits. Not moral or ‘let’s all be equal’ reasons.

Im waiting for Labours independent figures which include all the potential repercussions of this policy and the financial implications of these.

( @StarlingsForever are you aware of the ‘conflict in the Middle East’ threads on MN re Gaza. )

VAT has to be paid on all luxury items in this country

That’s not true. Air fares, cake, designer children’s clothes, luxury care homes more akin to 5 star hotels, private healthcare - these are all free of VAT.

Only the UK can think taxing education but not cake is a sensible decision. We should be the laughing stock of the world. Taxing education is actually against EU law. It’s amazing how many vehemently anti-Brexit voters are suddenly in favour of a policy which would not have been possible before Brexit.

Extremely rude.

I suppose it works both ways tho

Yes I am aware of the Gaza threads. Suggest a number of the posters on here pop over. Might give them some perspective on what really constitutes a big deal.

I doubt it.

I think a lot of private school parents will, once up against it, decide that 2 weeks in Mallorca and 2 weeks skiing can be sacrificed to find the £5000 they'll need.

We're always being told about the 'just about scraping by' parents, but I believe they'll be outnumbered by the 'having to give up a couple of posh holidays a year' ones.

Oxford is actually doing a great job with outreach programmes and more and more state school educated DC are applying and being successful for courses like medicine. They don't make contextual offers but they do take context into account in past performance when assessing for interview.

Agree.
Dont recognise your username on them that’s why I mentioned it.

Brilliant - I love how your comment perfectly illustrates my own. Wouldn't want your little darlings mixing with the state-school urchins now would you! 😂

135,000 current students likely to move from Indi due to affordability.

I'm not anti-Brexit actually, but assume away...

My little darlings are at Uni.
Urchins and darlings getting on well

Not so many doing fencing though…..shame😆

Not sure they'll be prepared to give up the skiing - what else will they post about on Facebook?

My daughter’s school consistently performs below the national average, but there are far worse schools – zero allowances made by any of the universities she applied to (RG, if that makes a difference). Same standard offer, no conditional.

Universities have their little checkers to see if you might get a conditional offer and while going to a state school might qualify, they ask you to input post code. Our post code does not qualify, so despite her school being far from the best, no conditional. Most state schools are in the same boat.

Believe me, just going to a state school does not get you a conditional offer. Anyone who thinks state school children are unfairly advantaged in this regard is delusional.

Sorry, this is a new one on me - are private school parents now trying to say that the state school children at uni only got in because of a pity-vote from the universities? Outrageous!

I think it will be very area specific re impact. London and Home Counties will be more affected just by the nature of where lots of the private schools are. If you’re paying £50k a year for Eton the vat isn’t going to make a massive difference as the amount of money needed to do that is already so massive you’ve got to be wealthy to even contemplate it. If you’re currently managing £15k, 20% could well be a tipping point into it not being worth it.

I’m also not entirely convinced they’ve fully thought through the behavioural impacts eg

1. there will be a chunk of people who carry on regardless and pay the vat
2. there will be people who pay vat for a number of years but then leave at break points (eg could see more pressure at 6th form level)
3. there will be people who decide not to go private and move into state.

Within group 3, there may well be lots of higher earners who think ‘fuck it’ I hate my high stress job and end up ploughing their money into pensions and paying off mortgage so they retire 5-10 years earlier than they might have otherwise done if they were paying fees.

"Kick back on 60-80k"! Good grief, do you have ANY idea how arrogantly you are coming across, or do you simply not care?

I don't know what your area of expertise is, but this is mine.

@MisterChips I have a number direct reports who are LSE economists. They always give me a range of scenarios with probability weightings and pretty much always any specific projections come with a health warning. The truth is that nobody knows what will happen in this scenario as there are too many factors at play and the uncertainty of human behaviour contributes significantly. The self-assurance of your posts and supposedly superior knowledge of how it will all pan out frankly discredits them for me.

Agree.
Having been through Uni applications many times and my cousins girls are going through it now ( they are in state school ) just being in state is meaningless.
I know of Indi applicants that got contextual offers because

• both parents died during A level years
• mother with terminal illness
• looked after kid ( 100% bursary )

My cousins daughter has just got contextual offers whilst at state because

• parents didn’t go to Uni
• shes a carer
• something else as you need 3. It’s not the school as that’s outstanding.

The school itself is irrelevant

I didn’t say you were. There are plenty in favour of the policy who are though.

I agree. I also believe the parents "just scraping by" who will stop paying fees and demand a free taxpayer-funded school place will be outnumbered by those who can find the money, some with difficulty and some with relative ease. Actually all observers of this debate agree on this:

• the IFS says 3-7% will move
• Baines Cutler research and about seven other surveys indicate 20-25% will move
• nobody really knows...
• ...but if pushed I would bet on 10-15% will move.

10-15% is enough that the policy raises no money. It's enough to see dozens, if not hundreds, of schools close and put teachers out of work. And it's 50-90k children having their education disrupted.

Doubt it. Have you seen the cost of putting kids through uni?