To panic about year 7 predicted GCSE results?

[CrescentMoonMistyClouds]

Oh dear, I'm very worried!
Received school email today.
My DS is aged 12. Year 7.

School have emailed a report out of the blue today to tell me his predicted GCSE grades.

For every single subject, Maths, English, Languages, Geography, History, Science, Computer Science, Art, Music, PE, RE, Technology......every single subject says this:
KS3 TARGET BAND: BAND 3
KS3 CURRENT BAND: BAND 3
ATTITUDE TO LEARNING: GOOD

I'm old enough to not know the current grading system, it was A to F when I was at school. Anyway, there I was googling the grading system, only to find a 3 is equivalent to D!!!! In every single subject!

When I was at school a grade D was considered really poor and we had it drummed in to us that we needed to get A, B, or at the very least C to get any further in our education. I got all As and Bs in 9 GCSEs and went on to A levels. I found the whole thing a breeze and didn't even revise for GCSE exams. Now I'm wondering was it much easier then? It was the 1980s. Have GCSEs got much harder to get good grades in?

I'm now thoroughly worried. DS is an intelligent boy. He does really struggle with maths and I am querying Dyscalculia as my other DC (younger) has been diagnosed with this, so ok, I accept the maths. But he's brilliant at English in my opinion, he has a fantastic command of the English language and is very good at analysing and interpeting text. He loves reading. Another, different report tells me his reading age is 14 years 4 months, when he is aged 12 years right now. And he loves history and geography and knows lots of information about these subjects!

I'm worried now. He hopes to do jobs that will require University education. He won't even get in to 6th form college with a list of grade 3 scores! 😥
(P.S. This is my 1st child at secondary, so I have no experience in this).

Stop worrying - they are in year 7 - worry when they get to year 11. My oldest was predicted 3/4 and 5’s he got 7/8 and 9’s.

It really is no indicator at this age- I am sure schools have to do it as some ridiculous government target!

So - everyone is saying that it means nothing and to put it out of your mind (which I agree with). If it means nothing, then why the hell are they wasting your time with it - and indeed the teachers' time. Totally bonkers!

My DD has predicted grades of mainly C's in Year 7, now in Year 8 she is predicted to get all A's. Tbh, I think its rubbish, and teachers said in parents evening last night, they are purely an educated guess at what a pupil will get in approx 3 years time - so much can change in that time so don't worry.

I'd double check what that means - it says Band 3 (whatever that means), not expected grade 3. I think they've not been very clear and it's probably better than it looks.

Schools are sometimes very bad at explaining/laying these things out - I have occasionally panicked looking at reports and then realised they're not saying what I thought they said as they're laid out confusingly!

Is it predicted grade or is it actually the grade he would get if he were to take the exam now? I recall my nephew’s school doing similar but he was at least in Y9.

Either way don’t panic. It is far too early to predict that kind of thing. A lot can change between now and then.

He's year 7. GCSEs are a lifetime away in terms of learning and progress. Don't give it another thought.

For what it's worth, I absolutely TANKED my Year 6 SATs, and got a maths result that pegged me as special needs in maths. Come GCSEs, I finished in the top 20% of the 120+ students. I've got a post-grad degree now.

Their opinion of your Year 7 child is honestly probably not worth the paper it's written on.

He is Y7. He hasn't even chosen his subjects yet.
It is probably based on if he sat the exams today, 4 years before his GCSEs.

Meant kindly, but yes you are being completely unreasonable to be panicking this far out. Take the pressure off him, and yourself. He has years of studying ahead of him.

I wouldn't worry too much- our school don't give gcse grades till year 10 when your actually in the first year of studying GCSEs they won't give marks before now. He will be studying subjects now that he isn't even studying at gcse ! Please don't panic my don got a 2 in his history mock in year 11 then in the real exam got a. 6! He's now studying this at A level. I would speak to the school and ask what they mean he has 5 years yet !

He has plenty of time to improve. If he's not academic then just help him work towards a more vocational college course or apprenticeship, post 16. If he's focused, there's loads of options for the less academically inclined.

Enthusiasm and a good work ethic can take him far. Don't panic.

What jobs does he think he wants to do? I'm surprised he knows his career path in year 7 to be honest. He may well change his mind.

How did he do on his SATs. Does he have any SEND needs? Some students will be aiming for grade 3s at GCSE. They'd do well to look at apprenticeships after GCSEs. Some jobs academics isn't the the be all. Plumbers and plasterers can be great and earn a fortune, but dont need to be great at writing essays

Generally speaking the rhetoric is that school exams have become easier or stayed the same, not got harder. But it’s a contentious issue. In any case, kids are getting better results now than they used to when they were letter graded, and entrance to good universities need higher grades than they used to. So if he seems bright to you and you did well, grade 3 GCSEs would not seem to be enough for the sort of academic performance he’s probably capable of and you probably expect.

But panicking when it’s unclear what the report really means (i.e. are these expected grades if the exams were taken this year or if taken at the end of GCSEs?) is unreasonable. So stay calm and follow up. Finding out and taking action based on reports now is not at all unreasonable. Education is continuous and pretty much all kids have the possibility for growth, the sooner you note issues and address them, the better. If they are stagnating and you don’t do anything about it, growth is far less likely to happen.

So ask the school what they actually mean and what he’s on track for in terms of academic results at the end of his school career. Then you’ll be in a position to decide what, if anything, you should do. When you’re thinking about that, remember that stress for children in school has grown massively. British children are some of the least happy in the world and school stress is a part of that. You need to balance welfare with academic progression.

KS3 is years 7-9. GCSE is KS4. Also band is not the usual word to describe number gcse grades. I suspect it is an in- house grading system used by the school for KS since national curriculum levels went. Either way, it's a long way off, don't panic. Just encourage your child to work hard and do their best. Keep an eye on maths and support if necessary.

Madness if there really isn’t further information explaining what it means.

Regradless of if GCSEs are years away or there is or isn’t a need to worry, the school shouldn’t provide this info without clear explanation. I’d check it again to make sure they don’t explain what it means on a separate sheet or lower down…and if not, email to ask what Grade 3 means. No need to express any concerns about it, simply a request for clarity in what it means.

You’re being mental.

Bin it immediately op. Unfair, pressurising and nonsensical. For God's sake don't get him a tutor. If by end of year 9 he is struggling, then think about extra help but until then just work on confidence, extra curricular and homework routine.

Is there any guidance sent with the report? My daughter's school used to do this but it was the grade they would get if they sat the exam TODAY. It's four years until your DS sits his exams, no need to.panic,but keep an eye on the maths.

Thanks for all tbe replies!
To those asking about guidance supplied by the school please see my update on page 2...

As it is exactly the same grade for every subject then it sounds like what they have done is used his SATs results, averaged together, to generate a GCSE grade, and then used that grade for every single subject.

Clearly if he is very weak at maths but good at English, then this will be completely inaccurate. He may be in a position where he might struggle to pass his GCSE maths given what you've said about him, but he might ace English, or History. He could be fab at PE or a talented artist or musician but because they've given the same grade for every subject based simply on maths and English at primary, this won't have been taken into account.

So basically it's totally crap what they've done. I would certainly challenge the validity of it with the school because it must be totally demoralising for him.

this! wow

We give KS3 a "band" for their topic tests.

Either 1/2, 3/4, 5/6 or 7/8/9.

It's just a guidance of how they might do at GCSE if they maintain the same effort level.

Lots of Y7s aren't so good at revising so as they get better at revising they see their band go up! It's also topic dependent as some kids do better in particular topics that they enjoy more.

Well he obviously doesn’t have your immense brains OP. Maybe you got the wrong baby at the hospital. Maybe he’s just a bit thick. Or maybe he’s in year 7 and this sort of stuff has no actual bearing on GCSEs results whatsoever given it’s three years away.

GCSEs are much more difficult now due to the pressure that is placed on the pupils. Very few courses have any coursework element and so the focus is 100% on exam performance. Last summer my DD took 27 exams across 4 weeks, with many days containing two exams.
the pressure is on to achieve the grades to allow you to access opportunities. In the 80s the job market was wildly different.
do not panic and do not show your DS you are worried.
he has several years to progress and in my experience schools often underestimate grades in lower school. This then builds in space for progression.
my DD is now studying A levels and on her progress profile it still lists her year 6 SATS grades.

My DD is in y9 - no predicted GCSEs - quite rightly so! I wouldn’t expect any to materialise until next year. And to be honest, alls to play for until the actual exam!

OP- if you know he’s struggling, nothing to stop you helping him perhaps via a tutor or otherwise. A low grade prediction is not a fait accomplI!

Just to reassure you- my dc was predicted GCSE 'flight path' of 4- (with predicted grades mainly 3 to one 5) -so old grades D/C from Year 7. In part from not achieving particularly well in KS2 SATs.
Dc went on to gain average Grade 8 GCSE so A* (sat exams not covid).
This was in a Ofsted 'needs improvement' school.

Like you I was immensely worried that the working towards grade was low and it didn't help that the school never raised the targets to align with results. I failed to get my head around the 'working towards' or 'Flight Path' grade becoming lower than 'currently achieving ' so the data didn't work.
It mainly impacted setting, with some lower set disruption and also expectations that a lower grade was sufficient as it met the expectations.
In a way it focused me to keep a closer eye on their progress and I did more at home to help.
When he was put in the bottom set for Science in Year 8 I was so annoyed I just revised for each end of unit test from CGP books with him and proved this was wrong! He was in the top set doing triple science by Year 10.
I would do what you can to help, and if necessary get tutors from Year 10 but there's loads of online resources for GCSE (just search previous Mumsnet threads).
Don't think these grades are set in stone. Otherwise it's equivalent to old 11+ style testing determining if a child is academic or not.

But what is band 3, I don’t think band 3 is grade 3…?