To panic about year 7 predicted GCSE results?

[CrescentMoonMistyClouds]

Oh dear, I'm very worried!
Received school email today.
My DS is aged 12. Year 7.

School have emailed a report out of the blue today to tell me his predicted GCSE grades.

For every single subject, Maths, English, Languages, Geography, History, Science, Computer Science, Art, Music, PE, RE, Technology......every single subject says this:
KS3 TARGET BAND: BAND 3
KS3 CURRENT BAND: BAND 3
ATTITUDE TO LEARNING: GOOD

I'm old enough to not know the current grading system, it was A to F when I was at school. Anyway, there I was googling the grading system, only to find a 3 is equivalent to D!!!! In every single subject!

When I was at school a grade D was considered really poor and we had it drummed in to us that we needed to get A, B, or at the very least C to get any further in our education. I got all As and Bs in 9 GCSEs and went on to A levels. I found the whole thing a breeze and didn't even revise for GCSE exams. Now I'm wondering was it much easier then? It was the 1980s. Have GCSEs got much harder to get good grades in?

I'm now thoroughly worried. DS is an intelligent boy. He does really struggle with maths and I am querying Dyscalculia as my other DC (younger) has been diagnosed with this, so ok, I accept the maths. But he's brilliant at English in my opinion, he has a fantastic command of the English language and is very good at analysing and interpeting text. He loves reading. Another, different report tells me his reading age is 14 years 4 months, when he is aged 12 years right now. And he loves history and geography and knows lots of information about these subjects!

I'm worried now. He hopes to do jobs that will require University education. He won't even get in to 6th form college with a list of grade 3 scores! 😥
(P.S. This is my 1st child at secondary, so I have no experience in this).

Check with the school, they all grade differently there is no national system. Surely you have some idea of his academic ability from last year's sats though.

I'm not completely sure as all schools might be different but at my sons' school the predicted GCSE grade is as if they take the exam at the end of KS3 (y9).

So in your son's case, if he took GCSE maths in y9, they'd expect him to get a grade 3. Which is a pretty solid foundation to build on.

I think you’ve misunderstood. Band 3 is unlikely to mean grade 3. Could it mean something like set 3?

It gives an explanation.
It says:
BAND 3: STUDENTS IN BAND 3 ARE WORKING AT A LEVEL THAT INDICATES THEY WILL ACHIEVE GCSE GRADES 3 - 4.

Well, that's an unhelpful explanation.
But on the basis that it's a KS3 prediction, it means that he is on target for a GCSE grade 3-4 at the end of KS3.

Which is nonsensical, as he won't have started GCSE work at that point (except in English Lang and Maths as it's continuous).

But if we set aside the fact it is nonsensical, being on track for a grade 3-4, two years before the actual exams is a pretty good place to be in.

Are you sure these are gcse predictions, as it refers to bands? Could it be sets? My DC's school only start talking in gcse grade terms once they have sat their first set of mocks.

If he struggled to get 100s in his sats it is probably a GCSE prediction.
If he found Sats easy then it won't be.

Clarify with the school.

If your statement about band 3 being roughly in track for GCSEs at grade 3-4 is correct then yes his targets are Ds in old money.

Schools set gcse targets from ks2 sats scores so if he has those gcse targets he probably did quite badly in the sats.

An example of how the targets are set from one school in this picture but all schools do similar.

I would be concerned about the school tbh.
It doesn't sound very good if they're sending home reports to year 7 with that explanation attached.

Do you remember his SATS scores from year 6? And if so, what were they?

Right well that explanation would have been relevant to put in your OP.

You need to talk to his teachers and find out more.

At our school grades vary wildly. Some subject seem to do a sort of "what they would get of they took their GCSEs now" whereas others don't. There should be consistency within a school, at least, but there isn't always, and there is no standard nationally, so we can't answer your questions. Don't don't be shy of finding out more from his teachers.

Maybe it depends on the school but my daughter is in year 11 and has pretty much followed the predictions she got back in year 7. I guess not everyone will, but I imagine it's fairly easy to model a "typical" predicted grade. It's good to recognise there's a need for extra tuition early on as these predictions aren't set in stone. But yes a 3 or 4 at actual GCSE wouldn't be enough to get accepted into the 2 colleges near us. They ask for minimums of 5s and 6s.

Is he predicted band 3 in everything? Or is it just some subjects he might want to drop anyway? Can you give him some extra tuition yourself as it's sounds like you did well? I could never seem to tutor any of mine as I lacked the patience, but all 3 had some form of extra tuition as some point, and they've all ended up doing well academically so there's no cause fot panic just yet!

The predicted grades for all subjects are generated from the maths and English ks2 sats.

This causes quite a lot of problems at secondary as while it sort of works for maths and English and subjects close to them - science, some humanities, it really bears no resemblance for subjects like PE or Art or drama.

You said he struggles with maths. That alone will pull his targets massively down.

A student who struggles with ks2 maths unless they have a massive intervention with out of school tutoring etc is likely to continie to struggle, and this carries across into science gcse where there is a lot of calculation.

You have said that he wants to carry on and potentially to uni. So my personal advice would be to get a maths tutor to make sure he passes maths (he needs to get a 4 to not resit) and then focus on the subjects he is better at.

Ok, given your latest post then I would be worried. Can you contact his head of year and ask for a chat?

@CrescentMoonMistyClouds

Have you had a parents evening yet? I was at a Y7 parents evening yesterday. My DC2 was on track for a 2 in a couple of subjects and 3 in everything else. The teachers were happy with this.

Basically, at DC2's school, they grade them as if they were at the end of Y9. So, if they were performing at their current level at end of Y9 that's what they would be on track for. But, clearly, they're expected to progress over the next two and a bit years.

Average for English is apparently a 3. Expectation for the whole year group is 1-3.

Your school is probably similar. It is confusing if you're not used to it.

I also have DC1 in Y10 at a different school and they use a slightly different system. They have been saying since Y7 that that DC1 is performing at a level they expect to be 7 at GCSE. Now in Y10, they're saying DC1 is at around 6-7 now and therefore school expects results of 7+ at GCSE.

Even though I already knew that DC1 was being graded in a way that's unfamiliar to me, I was still initially confused by the grades for DC2 because they were different again.

As others have said, contact school. Or wait for parents evening, when I'm sure all will be made clear.

Please don’t worry about these target grades. As another poster has mentioned, they’re based on KS2 SAT’s. It all comes down to their GCSE predicted grades as set by their subject teacher who has got to know them over the course of two/three years AND how well your child is progressing. I used to be a Head of Dept in secondary for over 10yrs, it’s all so silly!!

Plus, it’s all to do with data and show how well the school is performing.

Given they’ve said band 3 is equivalent to 3/4 then yes, cause for concern but I’d also be asking questions about how this has been arrived at and what they’re doing to help him improve. ‘Target’ 3/4 is fairly poor and in y7 more likely to be demoralising than helpful especially as ks3 should be setting a foundation and continuing a love of learning that’ll see them through into future life. If they’re doing gcse style questions from y7 he’s likely to hate education by the time he gets to y10.
it’s extremely unlikely he’s be the same target in every subject - could be data error or a calculation based on sats. If attitude is ‘good’ then he should be improving. It’s also virtually impossible to predict gcse grades at y7 - you have no idea how they will change in those five years

Yes, schools roughly predict future GCSE results from KS2 data, and quite often it's fairly accurate. However, it's not set in stone there is always room for improvement.

You have options, you can throw money at the problem and get him assessed for his strengths and weaknesses by the WISC-V assessment, if you have any incling of potential learning needs dyslexia, dyscalculia, executive function you can get him assessed for those. Same goes for ASD or ADHD the more you know the better and more individualised support can be.

You can promote a home culture of pre and overlearning and contextualising the school subjects so that he finds information more interesting. Watching documentaries, reading set texts together, watching Thug Notes, theatre trips etc. Make it your normal way of working/living rather than more homework.

If he's really not academic find something he excels at outside of school to keep his self esteem up and that could potentially lead to a job later on, mechanics, baking, photography whatever.

@Mary7241 target 3/4 is aspirational for many children. Whilst we would all like high flyers the reality is that despite their best efforts some students will get 1s and 2s. One of my students got a 3 in my subject and I was so thrilled for him because he had only managed 1s on his mocks despite trying incredibly hard and 1s/2s in his other subjects.

Band 3 is not the same as Grade 3 though? Year 7 predictions are also meaningless- it’s far too early to tell.

Please try not to worry too much.
He is still very young and so much can change between now and year 11.

By all means ask his teachers if there is something you can do at home to help but please don't stress too much. Just encourage him to try his best.

It’s based on sats results, but plenty of time to improve. When is parents evening?

Stop panicking! Our school does similar and they assume a band increase each year so end of year 7 band 3 should progress to a 7 in GCSE which is great.

I am slt in a secondary school.

GCSE grades are for students studying gcse exams. It is completely non sensical for schools to give gcse grades to students in y7 not studying gcse content and it's ridiculous that schools do this. It's completely meaningless.

Yes, ks2 marks can be used to calculate a GCSE target, but this is used to generate overall progress data for schools and it's not especially helpful to parents of individuals.

How bizarre. I'd expect that to prompt contact with parents and concern.

This. 100% (or a Grade 9)