@EasternStandard
It's hard to say how the legal headwinds will affect Trump. There are Republican voters out there who would hesitate to vote for a convicted criminal. They might stay home instead of switching to Biden
Another factor is the economy, in particular interest rates, food prices, and gas prices. If these ease up over the course of the summer and into the autumn, it's possible that could translate into votes for Biden. Thanks to higher interest rates for the past while, many voters are sitting on a good deal of real estate, waiting to turn it into money.
The conventions have yet to be held. The overall image of the parties and candidates can be affected by how the convention runs. The Democrats might have reason to rue the choice of Chicago, which is coming off a year of high profile criminality that will provide excellent fodder for criticism of woke politics (brazen robberies, car jacking, shootings; the new mayor is a former public school teacher and teachers' union organiser). The city has also found itself grappling with huge numbers of migrants bussed from Texas. There are several GOP dog whistle opportunities there (and in fact in the predicament of all major cities dealing with homelessness, mental health provision, drugs, crime, and problems created by GOP governor Abbott of Texas).
In addition, Democratic conventions tend to attract many fringe and special interest protest groups, sometimes quite radicalised. This year, we can expect to see a good deal of pro-Palestinian protest as well as environmentalists and others. It may be hard for the party message to break through the noise. Illinois governor (Democrat) JB Pritzker is said to have his eyes on national office and will be working with mayor Johnson (Democrat) and the Democratic National Committee to make sure it all goes smoothly (ploughing resources into creating a positive story). But it's an unknown, and the shadow of the 1968 Democratic National Convention has hung stubbornly over the city since then.
First-time or occasional voters who chose Biden last time around were younger than Trump voters.
Biden also attracted blue-collar male voters who shunned Hillary Clinton, and he openly supported the auto workers during their recent strike.
While Trump made unexpected inroads into the Hispanic vote, Biden got the majority of Hispanic votes last time. It remains to be seen how Republican attitudes to the current migrant situation - particularly the shunting of thousands of men, women, and children to northern cities in winter with no suitable clothing or prospect of shelter - will affect Hispanic voting.
The issue of reproductive rights can galvanize voters either way. However, this is an issue Biden could use to gain or retain voters, particularly women, bearing in mind victories for pro choice referenda in normally conservative and religious Kansas and Kentucky in recent times. The reality of the situation for women in states with abortion bans or severe restrictions has now hit many voters - it's no longer a hypothetical problem.
Above all though, there are Trump's own goals - the optics of January 6th are appalling and will cause many to either stay home or change sides.
Then there is the corruption trial that he recently lost. Some Republican voters are decent men and women who do not approve of crooks, and are less than impressed by a candidate whose 'business acumen' turned out to be a talent for lying to everyone for years.
His first presidential campaign was based largely on his own persona, his outsider story, his contrast with Clinton, his novelty, but if he relies on that again it will come across as a joke told twice. The people who will laugh at anything will love it, but there are people who feel the joke has worn thin, and his bid for election is nothing but a vanity project.
In short, it's eight months til November. Too early to tell.