To be nervous about an undersubscribed one-form entry infant school with declining birth rates?

[Cheepcheepcheep]

Coming to crunch time for Reception applications. I like the idea of a small school for late summer born DD, as does DH - and one of our options is a village school (we are on the edge of a town and would get in based on the last 3 years of data, once due to under subscription and twice on distance).

We’ve visited and it seems very friendly and welcoming. However, it’s one form entry and they only have 20 kids in the current reception. I’m nervous about the idea of going for it as I worry about funding, especially given the decline in birth rates and roll numbers.

Our alternative (and my preference) is a two form entry that we should get into on distance and which has been full this year.

Arguments for this school are the fact we both like it and a lot of her nursery friends are going there.

AIBU for worrying about the size and what that might mean for the future and funding?

To add, as DD is late august we are applying for a deferral - this is just the choice in case we don’t get it. DH has agreed the bigger school would be better if she starts at just turned 5 rather than just turned 4.

DS is late august, he went to a small primary and thrived, it never occurred to me to worry but I see your point, we had no problems though

It’s not a problem. She’ll get better teaching if anything.

I went to a very small primary think 10 kids per year group. I have very fond memories and you have a lot more focused time with your teachers.

I’d consider that a good size intake. Dd went to a primary with only 7 kids in her year group. One year group once only had one kid in the whole year! The school is still open.

I'd be looking at whether the school numbers are declining year on year. How big are yr 1, yr 2? Not every individual school is struggling as in some areas population has grown (new builds, people moving out of cities). If every year is getting smaller then yes I'd be worried.

DD went to small village primary with a 1 form 15 pupil intake. She thrived and the school definitely didn't struggle for money with a FT teacher + PT TA. It was a wonderful experience for her, they got individual attention from the teacher and lots of stretch and challenge.

And Dd moved to that school in year 3 from a two form intake and absolutely thrived. She went from being academically a year behind to passing her 11plus and I do think it was the small class sizes which helped.

20 is quite a healthy intake. Is it a church school? That will make a difference to its funding.

I assume you’re worried about its future rather than the school experience? I’m a primary school governor and I know how stressed schools are about enrolment numbers right now.

I’d say go for it if it’s your preferred school. If the worst really came to the worst, your child would need to change school so I would consider where that might be and whether the bigger school would therefore be a safer bet over some undesirable others you might end up in.

But 20 on the roll is actually a fairly healthy number for a small village school.

How do they treat the higher years? We are also applying for reception with a very small August born. Some of the school have had 20 intake years, one deliberately and one because it previously had been needing improvement. Both schools had reception as one class then doubled up in the higher years. We didn't like this with her being physically smaller than her peers never mine some potentially 2 years older than her.
The school that was needing improvement is now classed as good and has 25 in it's current year and if that continues they are returning to one class a year. For various reasons this school is better fit for us and it's the school we have put first.
This is the school that answered the question about how they help the small ones integrate into the class room and it was a big factor in our decision.

My DC go to a very small village primary with only 2 classes & combined year groups. I'm not overly concerned about the birth rate as we get a lot of in-year transfers too.
You can look up the school's finances online, it's all freely available, so you can see how they're doing in terms of deficits/surplus etc which might give you more information about its future viability.
Our Head is very savvy with money, we pay very little for trips etc & yet each class has at least 1-2 trips a term plus at least 1 whole school trip a term. Each class has 1 teacher & 2 TAs too.

DD is in reception and there are 23 in her class. There were 17 last year, and the average across the school is around 25. It's great and I think a real benefit over massive primary. Out catchment school was 2 form entry, over subscribed etc and we picked this one over it.

The numbers you are talking about aren't so small I'd be worried about the school closing or anything like that so I'd put that out of your mind and focus on which school you think your DC would be happiest in.

Mine go to a school with 6-10 per yr max. They academised last yr which seems to have brought with it an abundance of extra opportunities and funding. One of mine is 31st Aug and not deferred and the smaller setting has done wonders for him. The kids have such a nice experience.
I am concerned that secondary school will be a shock but we will deal with that as it comes

One near us only has 10 children in reception (PAN is around 25) and that has put us off. We thought that it would mean smaller class sizes and that really appealed however they seem to actually mix up the year groups which I feel may hold back older children.

Our other concerns were
Whether the school would be closed if intake continues to decline, although it is CofE which means that's less likely.
The school getting sufficient funding for basics and extras (CofE is also a factor here though)
We need wrap around care and I would worry about the sustainability of the external company who run that continuing to do so at the school with fewer "customers"
Other clubs / extra curricular activities / trips not having sufficient numbers to be worthwhile

The smaller one in a heartbeat, so much better for the children not to be one of 30 in the classroom!

Thanks all, this is really good food for thought and interesting to hear different perspectives.

School 1 (the undersubscribed 1 form entry) does say they have a good PTA but agree, my concern is that as numbers decline it will impact her school experience. Not helped by the fact we need to send DS to the same school we pick for DD in 2 years so having to have a 6 year crystal ball!

School 2 (the two form) is a similar set up and fairly villagey, but on the edge of town and I think has a more reliable future intake. The village school is in an area where lots of development has been blocked and families are increasingly getting priced out, so that combined with decreasing numbers does worry me.

i don’t think it helps that I read this on another thread today and it’s made me concerned: https://amp.theguardian.com/education/2023/dec/16/primary-schools-in-england-close-merge-and-shrink-as-pupil-numbers-fall

To a PP, not a church school. And I went to a small secondary and hated it as I couldn’t escape the bitchy girls, but I appreciate that’s my own bias and a different age group!

Our alternative (and my preference) is a two form entry that we should get into on distance and which has been full this year.

I would go for the bigger school. 20 in a year isn't tiny, but I would prefer a bigger group of children for friendships and larger schools usually offer more clubs and extra curricular activities.

It's also worth remembering that you could move from the bigger school to the smaller one, but not the other way round.

My ds went to a village school with an annual intake of 17. It was generally good, and a lovely safe environment.

The local council knew they couldn't close the school because the freehold was owned by the local big estate. It had been granted 100 years earlier on peppercorn rent, but with the clear clause that if the building ceased to be a village school, the building would revert to the estate.

The council couldn't sell it for housing, couldn't sell off the playing fields, couldn't really do anything without losing the use of an essentially free primary school. So, funnily enough, they kept it open. 😊

Many village schools have similar clauses. Perhaps check if yours is the same.

If she's going to be the eldest I don't think the smaller class size matters so much. If she's the youngest then it will help.

I’d be concerned. A local primary will close in July due to falling roll and demographic. Several other primaries in the area are also under threat. I’d be very cautious.

Repeated years like this can cause problems. But it's worth considering lots of other things.

The infant school we use is one form entry year R to year 2. It's tiny. Most years it is als most at 30 but every so often a low birth rate means it is a very low intake. Last year being one of those years with only 15. The previous low intake year was about 7 or so years earlier. Next year, when my next child starts, will likely be low again.

We are fortunate to be in an area where the school has an active PTA and to a certain extent, that funds the gap. However the school doesn't expect the gap to be a problem for a couple of years.

My children have thrived at the school and I sort of wish I had deferred my summer born child by a year as she is in a class of 30. She would have benefitted hugely from the class of 15 the next year.

At my children's school there are 4 reception children! 😆 We love being in a small school, all the children know each other, the teachers know all the children (even when not in their class) and being in mixed age classes can push them a little more.
The classes are small and there is a real community feel. I could name all the children and most of the parents!

Don't defer and send her to the small primary school.
To close a school takes years & masses of consultation

I work near a school that has just announced it is proposing to close at the end of this academic year due to falling pupil numbers. It is a Church of England school. From announcement to closure can happen in a year.

I’d go for the small school and let her start with her correct year group. She would thrive in a reception class of around 20.