To think that the best gift for Christmas 2024 will be...

[IClaudine]

finally getting rid of the Tories?

They will be gone by Christmas 2024, if not much sooner.🥳🥳🥳

With the state of the media and the bovine voting habits of the electorate, I'm not holding my breath.

Have you looked at the polls recently? Unless something really unexpected happens, they are finished.

I don't trust polls, they are too often wrong. Plus there will be a very large minority who will vote tory but never admit it, plus tory voters tend to vote. If you only have 30% of the electorate who can be arsed to vote, and 25% of the electorate vote tory, the math is pretty clear.

If you don't trust the polls, have a look at the odds the bookies are offering.

If 25% of the electorate vote Tory, that is only 1 in 4 votes? 25% of the electorate is not 25% of the 30% of the electorate who go out and vote.

Yes it would be but I am dubious. Going by their track record so far, they should have been voted out log ago but it never materialised.
People will be spouting nonsense about no other party being able to do any better. Unfortunately, at this point I am willing to let the Official Monster Raving Loony Party to have a bash at it.

I wouldn't bet on it. It's more than likely but I can see labour getting majority. The polls are normally very wrong. Lots of people don't like labour so rather than voting Tory's out, they just won't vote. If the people that vote are Tory voters then there's your maths.

I reckon it'll be a hung parliament, so who knows how that'd work out.

It’s not a numbers game. Tactical voting will play a big part in the next election. A lot of people will vote for the candidate most likely to beat the Tory, it’s happened at every by election in the last couple of years, apart from Uxbridge where the majority was pitiful. Whether you’re convinced by the polls or not, they’ve got the Tories shitting themselves.

Don't hold your breath. And the election could be in Jan 2025, that's the latest.

I agree they’ve got to go. Even my lifelong Tory voter relatives agree they’ve got to go.

But I don’t feel confident things will be much brighter on the other side of it, so I don’t really see it as a gift.

It won’t be. Sunak can afford neither another year of his party fighting like rats in a sack nor another catastrophic set of local election results in May. My money’s been on a general election in May for months now.

Looks like all you’re getting for Christmas 2024 is a huge fat lump of disappointment but you just carry on dear.

Oh OP, I'm hoping along with you that we finally get rid of this lying, self serving shambles of a government. As a Labour voter I am of course biased but I can't understand anyone rational defending this lot.

It doesn’t really. All the indications are that she’s going to be very happy.

I hope so OP. Unfortunately the electorate keep proving themselves to be really fucking stupid though

But voter behaviour at by-elections is known to be very different to voter behaviour at general elections. I hope there is lots of tactical voting but I can't see it making an overall difference unfortunately.

No government in its right mind would choose to have an election campaign over Christmas. I thing we will have a Spring election, so my Christmas present may come very early!

Have you seen the polls, dear? The Tories are toast for probably a decade.

Odds are very much in Labour's favour.

www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

(Edited as I think the odds I originally posted are out of date).

I would love to see the back of the Tories, but I don't actually see how it can happen without Scotland (and I don't see Scotland flocking back to Labour)

Not sure if this is the latest prediction for Scotland.

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

I can definitely see voters returning to Labour in Scotland. It’s never voted Tory and the. SNP is as much of a shambles as the Tories now.

It can make a huge difference as people will have observed with the by election results - majorities of 20k+ overturned. And Reform is polling at about 10% which will split what remains of the Tory vote.

I just don't see things going back to how they used to be. Doesn't matter what polls say, there has been a fundamental change.

I hope and pray you're right and I'm wrong. Since Brexit my faith in anything good coming from our shambles of a democratic process is through the floor :(