To wonder what the NHS will be like in 10 years?

[Makemeanothercupofteaplease]

What do you think it will be like? Will it be restructured, so it is once again the envy of the world? How can that be done?

I don't live in the UK anymore but family and friends I love are there so it is something I think about. The current state worries me. Healthcare in general worries me to be fair as someone with autoimmune conditions, I have good quality care where I am now but in 10 years time will it be affordable...I don't know.

I think medical care in general is becoming precarious everywhere as the best treatments just get more and more expensive. Then we also have anti-biotic resistance and superbugs to factor in.

How do you think the NHS will fare in the future? What will healthcare in general be like down the line?

I think it will be even worse than it currently is, or be better because either taxes will raise to pay to it, or more services will be privatised/funded differently.

Look at what has happened to NHS dentistry. That's what I fear will happen all too quickly across the rest of the NHS. I needed to have a wisdom tooth removed - it was causing frequent infections for which the NHS prescribed antibiotics. Waiting time for NHS dentist to take it out was 18 months. Or have it done by a private dentist in 2 weeks for £400.

My dh has a musculoskeletal problem for which he requires surgery. It gets progressively worse. It has taken 17 months for him to get the possibility of a telephone consultation with a specialist (so far it has been waiting lists then email questionaires and emailed photos). The consultation invitation letter also stated "this is not a life threatening illness and you may prefer to live with the continued deterioration". God knows how long it will be until he can surgery. Or course he could go private (ironically with the same consultant) for £6,000. We will not do that but the progression of the problem impacts more and more on how he functions in daily living.

However, the NHS is under intolerable pressure: the increase in what is possible medically, the costs of medication, the amzing (but expensive) things we can do for very sickly babies, the costs of healthcare for the increasing number of very elderly, but sadly also the massive increase in metabolic diseases - some of which are lifestyle related (poor diet, lack of exercise etc).

It is only prob for the current generation ie growing number of older people currently But the with the fall in the birthrate next generation should be ok So who knows

Even five years ago I wouldn't have had access to a private GP appointment and I wouldn't have considered a private hip replacement. I could also get my ears syringed on the NHS, warts removed and NHS dentistry and chiropody. Oh also physio. All that is gone. In only five years!! Most of the NHS will be gone in another ten years

TO be fair I couldn’t get any of those 20 years ago. So you were very lucky

Nail on the head.

We need some brave and visionary politicians to tell it how it is and move it to a more European co-payment/part insured system.

The NHS WILL die if politicians continue to pretend to the public that all it needs is more money, because that's not the answer at all. We could, again, double or treble the NHS budget (Like Brown did) and it would still be unfit for purpose unless we actually reform it.

And yes, it's never been the envy of the World, and the World was basically laughing at us at the opening ceremony of the London Olympics!

We need to have a semi private system. Anyone who isn’t receiving any benefits needs to pay towards apppointments. £10 to see a GP or you buy an annual pass like you do with prescriptions. Again, contributions towards all other care, remove NHS care for some conditions including gender reassignment, invest in social care to get people out of hospitals. Get rid of tuition fees and reintroduce some kinds of grants for all doctors nurses and some AHP’s.

This. The one thing we must avoid is an American style system. There are better systems out there.

Lots of other countries have insurance backed/co-payment systems where they can get (far better) treatment for medical conditions at low/minimal cost.

We don't see French or Germans saying they wished they were in the UK, do we?? And the French/German people with medical conditions are getting treatments (probably better) than us in the UK.

Unfortunately, that's exactly what we could end up with unless our stupid and useless politicians put their big girl/boy pants on and come up with plans to scrap the NHS in it's current form and move towards a continental/Canadian/Australia system instead. It's pretending the NHS is fine and all it needs is a bit more money that will ultimately kill it and leave us with a US style healthcare system.

If we moved to an insurance based system, would we see a reduction in NI payments? seen as a portion of that is essentially NHS costs. I doubt it.

We need to lose this mindset of not wanting to pay for the services we want!

Far too many people want "someone else" to pay for the services we want.

Anyway, lots of people don't pay any NIC, so it's a bit of a red herring. It needs scrapping anyway and income tax rates increased instead to make up the shortfall!

Agree 100%

But we won't go for a European model, will we? We'll go for the US one.

National Insurance was designed initially to pay for ALL benefits, so pensions, benefits, etc. It wasn’t there just for the NHS!!!

The nhs just gobbles up money and productivity is poor and there is no value gained from the money spent.

Doctors have the best return on their degrees. The best salaries, best pensions, and 100% employment. No other degree gives graduates as good a return. That’s why there’s so much competition to get on the courses. Look at IFS data.

We will get what we tolerate. Now more than ever we need politicians to be honest with the population and tell the hard of thinking the difficult truths: either we need to start euthanising sick, elderly people who have no family to care for them OR we need to accept that we ALL have to pay to have a decent, functional health and social care service that benefits the whole population, not just the rich.

To be clear - I WANT THE LATTER!!!

That depends entirely on who wins the next election.

This with bells on!

I think it was the envy of the rest of the world in the fact that you were not turned away for treatment because you are poor. It doesn't cost £1000's to have a baby, it is obviously very very far away from being a service which is effective to all. But im glad we have it.

It does need a massive reshuffle and more funding.

I think as it deteriorates more, people who need urgent treatment and can afford it, will go private and the ones left will be those the poorer who dont have a choice but to wait and accept the only service that can be provided.

I hope it is still here in 10years, I hope it becomes a priority for the next government and they give it the shake it needs.

Sadly, it will be gone as we know it and it will be an accountant at a private medical insurance company deciding whether we can get treatment rather than an actual doctor.

As someone with a chronic life limiting disease, I'm terrified.

Hopefully, 24hr 7 day a week access to gp and dentists, social,care funded nursing homes, more contributions from the public, open more mental health, elderly, rehab units. Main Hospitals only for operations, acute illness, emergencies and trauma. Gp surgery, walk in, community hospitals open 24/7 for all non emergency procedures and day surgery,

That's already the situation. Doctors work within guidelines as to who to treat and what treatment to provide, backed up by committees, statistics, etc.

When my OH was diagnosed with a rare form of cancer, we had to wait for a committee to decide whether his treatment would be funded by the NHS! Thankfully, they said yes! But he's now on a long term course of chemotherapy drugs and the oncologist has said they can't change the drugs package, even though he could do with lower dose of some due to the side effects - apparently any "change request" would have to go back to committee and now as he's a few years older, there's every chance they wouldn't agree to continuation, so it's a "let sleeping dogs lie" matter - and he's stuck on the current drugs package for as long as possible, to avoid the risk of them deciding not to continue the authorisation!

Many years before, he went to the GP to ask for drugs for ED. GP explained that he had to meet specific criteria for them to be prescribed due to cost. At that time, he didn't meet the criteria, so they were refused. A few years later, he developed another health condition, and that meant he did meet the criteria, so he got prescriptions for drugs both for the "new" condition and also for the ED!

How much more tax are you willing to pay for that Utopia?

Or do you want "someone else" to pay for it!

In the Netherlands about 15 (?) years ago they looked at the free universal healthcare system and realised it was unaffordable. So they changed to an insurance based system which costs on average £250 pp per month.

There’s a co-pay system but it has an annual limit. So the more you use the system, the more you pay but only up to a limit so it won’t bankrupt you like in the US.

Low earners and those on benefits pay much less. But crucially pensioners have to pay and it’s about £350 pm for a pensioner couple. And before anyone chips in, their state pension is roughly the same as ours. It’s viewed as a cost like food/heat/water.

It has been accepted across society as the reality of good health care. So there you have it. It costs much much more, there’s a safety net but people have to pay. This is the Scandi/German model.

Personally I’d pay but many people wouldn’t. Are there any politicians who would be prepared to raise our taxes by so much when people are already groaning about the high tax burden?

This is the reality.

@tiggergoesbounce

I think it was the envy of the rest of the world in the fact that you were not turned away for treatment because you are poor.

It may have been that for developing/third world countries, but it certainly wasn't like that for most of Europe, Canada, Australia, etc., who have a health system for all, but not a "free at point of use" system like the UK. I think most people in Europe, Canada and Australia are pretty happy with their systems which are usually as good, if not better, than the UK, and include "safeguards" for the poor etc.