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Results like these at a general election would mean Tory annihilation

702 replies

noblegiraffe · 20/10/2023 07:49

Says a BBC headline this morning.

Anyone else stockpiling popcorn?

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21
ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 20/10/2023 21:47

Revenants · 20/10/2023 21:32

Today is very similar to 1992-1997, which was the slow decline of the Tories. I lived and breathed those days plus the Thatcher years.

The social, economic and political things which are different in the UK today are:

  1. The fear of boats.
  2. Unemployment (we have the reverse now).
  3. The internet.

Anything is possible. A Labour wine is not certain.

But how big is the fear of boats?

Whatever the previous by election that the Tories lost was interesting ( can’t remember where but it was a sort of leafy Tory voting area). The constituents weren’t bothered about the boats. They were bothered about Truss, mortgages and the cost of living.

l don’t know anyone who cares about boats apart from compassionate reasons. They care about power bills, and cost of living ( or Cozzy Livs as Dd calls it🤮)

Papyrophile · 20/10/2023 21:48

The greatest gift is English as a first language. Everyone, worldwide, wants to speak it. It is the global language. And I speak French well and can get by in German, Spanish and Portuguese

  • just.
SkinnyMalinkyLankyLegs · 20/10/2023 21:50

Zonder · 20/10/2023 20:07

On your sample of N=1 you say you have noticed no difference.

I've also lived under Labour and Tory, but not SNP. I've noticed a huge difference. As have my family and friends. You only have to look at the number of people needing food banks to see your little sample isn't replicated nationwide.

That's all very well but I made it very clear that I'm talking about from my perspective and my perspective only, as an explanation as to why I don't really give a stuff about politics anymore.

jgw1 · 20/10/2023 21:51

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 20/10/2023 21:47

But how big is the fear of boats?

Whatever the previous by election that the Tories lost was interesting ( can’t remember where but it was a sort of leafy Tory voting area). The constituents weren’t bothered about the boats. They were bothered about Truss, mortgages and the cost of living.

l don’t know anyone who cares about boats apart from compassionate reasons. They care about power bills, and cost of living ( or Cozzy Livs as Dd calls it🤮)

I must say I am absolutely terrified of boats. There was one sat on the path yesterday where I was trying to walk. It was just sat their looking at me out the side of its eyes and occassionally knashed its teeth.

Terrifying.

pointythings · 20/10/2023 21:53

@Papyrophile I'm an EU national in the UK and I have the option of leaving. And if the Tories get in again, that becomes a very serious option. I'm younger than you and still working, but I have savings, a paid for house and a decent pension so I have options too. My political engagement in the UK comes from all the people I know over here who do not have the choices I have. And frankly, political Tory annihilation would suit my family (with disabilities and without wealth) just fine.

TooBigForMyBoots · 20/10/2023 21:54

overtaxedoverworked · 20/10/2023 18:58

@DuncinToffee Only that tens of thousands of voters stayed away - I'm assuming that those keen to show Rishi a bloody nose would make the effort to vote.
The Conservatives are past masters at being chaotic and split between general elections, but their discipline shows every five years - Labour in particular seems to pursue tall-poppy battles when it would be better to show a unified front.
From a historical perspective, PMs seem to be heading for a loss when they focus more on accumulating airmiles because they can't deliver any improvements at home, but the opposition have made a lot of unforced errors.

I read reports that similar happened with Labour voters when Corbyn was leader. Now that he's gone, presumably they'll return. That's going to be another ballache for Tory strategists.

Zonder · 20/10/2023 21:54

jgw1 · 20/10/2023 21:13

I am pretty sure that it was the nasty older kid But Jeremy Corbyn and the tofu eating wokerati teacher lawyer doctors in the Labour party that made them do it with a lettuce in conjuction with the lefties in the HoLs and the mudstream media.

You're right as usual. It's always that But Jeremy Corbyn's fault.

jgw1 · 20/10/2023 21:56

Zonder · 20/10/2023 21:54

You're right as usual. It's always that But Jeremy Corbyn's fault.

If only the Tory party had eloquent strategists like me, they wouldn't be losing bye-bye elections all over the country.

Zonder · 20/10/2023 21:57

SkinnyMalinkyLankyLegs · 20/10/2023 21:50

That's all very well but I made it very clear that I'm talking about from my perspective and my perspective only, as an explanation as to why I don't really give a stuff about politics anymore.

That's as selfish as it gets really. So long as you're alright hey?

JassyRadlett · 20/10/2023 21:58

For the "it was only Conservative voters who stayed home" crowd, this from Survation is interesting. Turnout estimates.

Results like these at a general election would mean Tory annihilation
jgw1 · 20/10/2023 22:01

JassyRadlett · 20/10/2023 21:58

For the "it was only Conservative voters who stayed home" crowd, this from Survation is interesting. Turnout estimates.

That's not a general goodbye election so does not count.

SkinnyMalinkyLankyLegs · 20/10/2023 22:07

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TizerorFizz · 20/10/2023 22:31

@RogueFemale Truss was absolutely right about needing growth and increased productivity. She just didn’t understand how markets react to sacking the top
Treasury Mandarin snd not bothering at all with the OBR. Labour are focussed on having the highest growth in the G7. (Look at their web site!) Hopefully they understand how the markets work and won’t trash the economy. They would do well to learn from Truss’s grave errors. Their goals are the same though.. Growth provides higher tax take, business confidence, exports, better paid jobs and better services. What’s not to like?

FrankieStein403 · 20/10/2023 22:45

We were talking about thatcher because she was the cause of much of today's problems, from housing to privatised core infrastructure - how can you say the country was better run when so much money was lost?

If she had created a wealth fund as Norway did we'd have a multi billion pot to play with not the biggest debt ever.

Every conservative government since has given more of our resources to the money men and faffed about with economic models like some bullingdon jape.

Zonder · 21/10/2023 00:40

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If you don't care about politics what on earth are you doing on a politics thread? Just looking for opportunity to throw some insults around?

It's easy to say you don't care about politics if you aren't one of the millions suffering. Thankfully more and more people are showing they do care.

verdantverdure · 21/10/2023 01:57

The Tories are losing to everyone, everywhere.

Almost every time the country gets a chance to vote they vote out a Tory.

itsgettingweird · 21/10/2023 06:11

Coveescapee · 20/10/2023 11:06

Yes @OnlyTheBravest you are right. The only major policy I've seen is vat on school fees which is likely to cost MORE as private pupils will be forced into the state sector. There needs to be abit more honesty there is no money.

I've heard Starmer be honest about this repeatedly.

He's very often said he can't make any manefesto policies yet because they country is economically in dire straits and it may be worse when he takes over. He's repeatedly said there's no easy solution but at least he's recognising what needs to be done and making noises about doing it.

The story's are just denying anything's fucked up and when pointed out where it's fucked us with facts pretend they've not been in power for 13 years and/or blame Labour.

Who knows of Labour will be better? But I'd feather have a party leading the country that at least care about the people living there.

Fifteenth · 21/10/2023 06:19

TizerorFizz · 20/10/2023 08:24

It’s going to hinge on the Tory vote coming out. They might in a general election. They just stayed at home in these by elections it appears. So it’s difficult to look at swing in these seats and then say a GE will see the same. These seats were lost because of dreadful Tory MPs. Their supporters decided not to vote in large numbers. 44% turnout in mid Beds is very low. It was 74% at the GE. Although we don’t really know what will happen with turnout at a GE, 44% would be almost unheard of. It will be interesting to see what does happen but projections based on low turnout in a by election are dodgy to say the least.

Tories lost a lot of people when they did Lockdown. You can’t lock conservatives up then expect them to vote for you.

When Tories act like socialist authoritarians, they lose their voters.

Both parties taking us in a downward spiral.

itsgettingweird · 21/10/2023 06:28

mummymeister · 20/10/2023 12:20

People with feminist principles are going to have a really hard time voting for Labour because of the trans rights issue. Once their stance is highlighted in an election campaign there is going to have to be some movement on it or they will leak these voters.

This has been proven not to be the big issues the Tory's would like to try and use it as.

People are far more interested in coast of living and services.

Because let's face it. These issues affect everyone. How many of us in reality are affected by a trans woman daily?

user1497207191 · 21/10/2023 06:55

verdantverdure · 20/10/2023 15:01

There are several other parties who also "aren't the Tories".

Look at the fiasco we get when voting for “other” parties. Such as the coalition when people voted for Clegg and brexit when people voted for farage! I’d prefer either Tory or labour than yet another disaster when people vote for a fringe party.

Fifteenth · 21/10/2023 07:07

Maybe there will be positive news out of Argentina tomorrow.

itsgettingweird · 21/10/2023 07:31

TizerorFizz · 20/10/2023 20:06

As the Labour vote held up with a 44% turnout in mid Beds when the GE is 74.7% turnout, it is clearly a no show by Conservatives. We don’t know if they are still conservatives of course. The majority was pretty small so it’s anyone’s guess what happens in the GE. Will these non voters stay away? Will the missing 25% show up? (Unlikely) Are the non voters still Conservative?

My interpretation of that low turn out of Tory voters is that they couldn't/ won't vote Tory but they refuse to vote elsewhere.

Which of course will matter at a GE.

Will we see a Labour landslide with low turnout or high turnout.

But the fact is that if Tory voters won't vote or spoil it won't win the Tory's the election.

If Labour win it won't matter how they will they'll be running the country.

itsgettingweird · 21/10/2023 07:32

noblegiraffe · 20/10/2023 20:20

I can't imagine what it would be like to go from having Mad Nad to a functional human being as a representative.

I'm living in hope I get to find out what going from Braverman to - well - just someone human - functioning or not - will be like WinkGrin

MidnightOnceMore · 21/10/2023 07:34

user1497207191 · 21/10/2023 06:55

Look at the fiasco we get when voting for “other” parties. Such as the coalition when people voted for Clegg and brexit when people voted for farage! I’d prefer either Tory or labour than yet another disaster when people vote for a fringe party.

I think the Lib Dems managed to successfully restrain the Tories in quite a lot of areas, it is post-2015 they've gone really destructive.
I was angry the Lib Dems were willing to go along with the lie that somehow Labour caused the global economic situation.

itsgettingweird · 21/10/2023 07:37

StillWantingADog · 20/10/2023 21:07

I’m still hoping for a spring GE . With the tories’ popularity sinking fast there is a strong case to call an election before it gets even worse for them. It might be a choice between losing badly and near obliteration. While the latter is preferable this country will suffer badly with another year of those fools.

the vast majority will not contest their seats so sad that we won’t get to see them losing them (like the vile Tory mid beds candidate, who stormed off the stage in a huff like a petulant child)

That's a pertinent point.

It may well get to the point they need to call a GE just to ensure they are the opposition party before people completely lose faith and we see an increase in Tory voters staying at home.

(Although after this shower of shite I'd be happy to let them destroys themselves!)

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