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Original poster

What is the worst case scenario for climate change over 5 to 10 years?

110 replies

Unbalance · 21/07/2023 21:15

Obviously it is all gathering speed fast. But densely, I just can't really picture what will happen, in terms of well everything? There are so many factors at play.

Fresh water scarcity concerns me most. Is this the biggest threat to the most people over the next few years, as in will kill the most people in a short space of time?

Or if not water - what is the biggest threat if shtf completely?

What can governments do to prepare for worst case scenarios?

OP posts:
NobodysNose · 23/07/2023 07:16

"a few little islanders in Western Europe who produce less than 1% of the carbon emissions"

I see this quoted on here a lot and it hides the real truth somewhat.

  1. We indirectly produce more than that, it's just we offshore a chunk if it by having someone else do our dirty work for us.
  2. Our population is less than 1% of the world's population suggesting we are still producing more than our 'share'
SunnyEgg · 23/07/2023 07:16

MasterGland · 23/07/2023 07:09

The thread has descended into a strange mix of hysteria, denialism and conspiracy theory.
The evidence for man made climate change is pretty compelling. We WILL have more extreme weather events. However, it is also true that people are seeking to make profit from this. It's an attractive idea to many middle class people that they can buy their way out of this and so maintain their current standard of living. They just have to replace everything with a 'green' alternative. The environmental movement has been completely hijacked by this idea, because it is a much easier sell than telling people the real truth: you have to live with less. Much less. Your standard of living must reduce.
Old Greens like myself didn't get very far with this message, of course. People like to think they can buy their way out.
Eventually, this lower standard of living will be imposed on us by high prices. This is what will happen in the next decade, I believe.

Imo it’s going beyond attractive eco alternatives for the middle class. I think that shop will sail pretty damn quickly.

Unless you’re mega rich and then you may have some better choices

SunnyEgg · 23/07/2023 07:19

Ship but shop could work

Riapia · 23/07/2023 07:28

Moonmelodies · 21/07/2023 21:42

Worst case might be the sun unexpectedly becoming a red giant overnight, or maybe worse still, going supernova.

This is going to happen in 5billion years.

MasterGland · 23/07/2023 07:29

Also, with regards to the mass migration that is being referred to, that is probably 60 years away, not 10. It is predicted that people will move internally within countries first, and that movement out of their country will be a last resort.
I also wouldn't be so sure that these people would not be welcome. Many countries in the developed world have critically low fertility rates. In 60 years, some of these countries will be struggling to pay the pensions of their old populations.

cloudsintheceiling · 23/07/2023 08:06

I read a book called Dreamland which is set in Kent in the near future (it doesn't give a date but I would guess maybe 50 years). Vast swathes of the SE are affected by high tides and flooding, and the sea has mines in to deter migrants. Both those things I can see happening but not within 10 years.

In 10 years:
More extreme weather events in the UK eg 40c days in summer, local flooding, very wet summers. Possibly more storms.
Likewise more extreme weather events in other countries.
Food becoming more and more expensive.
Climate Migration becoming more common but not to the point where the government would put mines in the sea or anything.

I would like to see fewer flights and large shops like B&M pedalling plastic tat from China but I don't have much hope.

Swrigh1234 · 23/07/2023 11:47

NobodysNose · 23/07/2023 07:16

"a few little islanders in Western Europe who produce less than 1% of the carbon emissions"

I see this quoted on here a lot and it hides the real truth somewhat.

  1. We indirectly produce more than that, it's just we offshore a chunk if it by having someone else do our dirty work for us.
  2. Our population is less than 1% of the world's population suggesting we are still producing more than our 'share'

So what’s your point? How does it help the climate?

Nellynoowhoareyou · 30/07/2023 19:13

@MasterGland is it me you’re implying is a conspiracy theorist?! Absolutely not. Are you referring to my statements about big oil? It doesn’t take much research at all to see the denialism and subterfuge coming out of the oil industry ever since scientists first started sounding the alarm.

Example: https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/18/the-forgotten-oil-ads-that-told-us-climate-change-was-nothing

Makes their new phase of greenwashing beyond laughable.

Also regarding your comment about migration, the IEP released a report a while back projecting >1bn climate refugees by 2050. To put that into perspective, consider the political, economical and geographical ramifications of 6 million people being displaced from Syria and the pressures that put on countries across Europe during the refugee crisis.

The forgotten oil ads that told us climate change was nothing | Environment | The Guardian

Since the 1980s, fossil fuel firms have run ads touting climate denial messages – many of which they’d now like us to forget. Here’s our visual guide

https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/18/the-forgotten-oil-ads-that-told-us-climate-change-was-nothing

Nellynoowhoareyou · 30/07/2023 19:14

@MasterGland

EVRIwoes · 30/07/2023 20:54

MasterGland · 23/07/2023 07:29
Also, with regards to the mass migration that is being referred to, that is probably 60 years away, not 10. It is predicted that people will move internally within countries first, and that movement out of their country will be a last resort.

It is already happening. Mass migration was reported not long ago somewhere in Africa. Less so in more temperate climates but we personally moved a few years ago partly to be somewhere in the Uk where we might fare better in terms of growing our own veg and not getting the heat quite so badly. The wild wind and rain we can’t avoid though. And we were careful not to buy a house at risk of future flooding. I dare say others who are well informed will have been quietly doing the same. No one IRL knows that this was part of our reasoning. We would have been labelled preppers and viewed as OTT. But we just want to set things up as best we can for our DC and cities will be unbearable.

So climate driven internal migration is already happening in varying degrees.

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