Universal basic income and what it may look like

[porkpiesinthepark]

I've been thinking for a while about the criticism of UBI and I think it's due to people not being able to imagine the government trying to 'match' peoples wages. In my opinion, it never will but there will be alternatives to what we have now, which will be able to offer something better.

So say the UBI is £1000 a month for a single person.
We could change the housing market to allow much more public housing with rents set at an affordable level, much more stability, no private landlords and the option to customise/ change your home. Let's face it, home ownership is out of reach for the majority at present. I don't find people are dying to own their own homes but desperate to be out of the instability of the private rental market, out of parents houses, out of house shares etc. If you could offer the next best thing to owning your own house, I think people would go for it.
There would be much more community linked to people having extra time due to not working or not working as many hours. Now, not having enough to do in the day is bad but most people have these huge dreams for retirement and this would just allow them to do some of these things now instead. Also more volunteering, looking after elderly relatives etc.
I don't think that private car ownership would be a thing. There would be a big system like Uber who you could call rides on. There would be a cheaper option, say if ten people wanted to go to the city centre at the same time, they would have to walk to a hub and then the van would pick everyone up, like public transport but based on demand. It would be a status symbol to be able to call a car out just for you.
I think a lot more people would wfh getting the cost of transport and childcare down. Schools might even go remote, as there wouldn't be both parents working and so in theory they could help facilitate the lessons. Then teachers would have small classes of Sen kids like mine, key workers and vulnerable children. Kids would interact with others through volunteering groups with parents, or just playing out as there would be less cars and more parents around to keep an eye on them.
People will either hate this vision as it's so different to what we have now. Or they will like some parts. But what we have now can't continue.

I don't understand how a conversation about UBI has become one about AI.

AI will happen with or without UBI. It's already happening.

Re UBI - I think it sounds appealing. The basic issues in this country are that benefits and incomes aren't enough to have even a reasonable standard of living. UBI is one answer to that. So is raising benefits so that they reflect the actual cost of living today. So is increasing the minimum wage to £15 an hour.

Benefits are supposed to be a safety net for those who are struggling. They've become something needed by working people to supplement low incomes. The answer is to increase benefits and to increase incomes. (see PEF on increasing min wage and see JRF on increasing benefits.

Re housing, that's a separate issue and yes of course the Govt should be reforming the rental sector completely - owning your own property will become out of reach for most people, but as a result the Govt needs urgently to ensure that people living in rental properties can stay there long term.

*Ok that’s interesting i

Can you describe what you think this is like?

You may have said already but I admit I’m not feeling this way, can you sum up what you’re most terrified about

Yes. Fresh water will become a very scarce resource in their lifetime. In the UK we are well-placed geographically to deal with this but haven't even built one new reservoir in decades.

We rely on food and energy imports. Our Government has no serious plans for energy or food security.

Climate change will result in mass migrations of populations on a scale never seen before by humanity: many of the largest cities in the world are coastal so will flood.

Many other areas will become too hot to be inhabitable for much of the year, many areas that grow much of the world's food will have reduced crop yields or be flooded.

At the same time due to hugely falling birthrates outside subsaharan Africa there is a massive population collapse underway. In their usual way Governments seem oblivious. There is a tipping point with it where it becomes hard to reverse and that isn't actually too far off now.

Technology will be our key to dealing with these issues - if we can - it is our only real hope to do so. Hence my previous comments on the AI part of the equation. Vast productivity gains mean more resources which means if social structures are changed to distribute these effectively then this can solve many problems BUT will these things be implemented? I highly doubt it. So dystopia beckons.

My fear is that my children are just starting an antiquated education system designed to prepare them with a mindset and "skills" for a world which will no longer exist, and that they will be growing up into a world of chaotic change from the impact of these multiple influences hitting at the same time. A level of change that humanity has never experienced in such a short period of time before (2-3 decades).

As children do, they are absorbing the life I provide for them now as the norm and expect as adults that their lives will be similar. They won't, that much is certain. But I'm unable to tell them what it WILL be like because nobody can, so they will live through huge turmoil. It could be much better than we have now, or much worse.

Medical advances will mean that - if those are available to people - they could live extremely long lives. But what will those lives be like?

Will the UK become even more isolationist? Its sea borders may benefit it once again. But without a plan for food or energy or water security this still will be useless. Will we engage with the world and try to solve these global problems globally, and create new systems? Without forward planning and serious people in Government who are aware of the risks and issues and how fast all of this will happen, it will likely be a time of great unrest and misery. Transitions always involve pain but this particular set of circumstances means not just minor adjustments - which for example the last industrial revolution was in comparison - but a total reimagining of social systems and the purpose of society, how we classify resources, even what we think of as "money" and how this represents "value" and is distributed.

Depending how it is handled it is hard to know what young children today will need. Very advanced IT skills? Or basic survival skills?

It could all be the dawning of a new age for humanity that is far better. Or not.

I don't understand how a conversation about UBI has become one about AI.

Because that is the only thing that will make it affordable.

@DdraigGoch unfortunately you aren't in control. My friend worked for a big named bank who were all told 'the public won't be able to bank how they want to bank, they will bank how we want them to bank' and lo and behold it happened. Most high street branch's shut. There is no option to not use some form of computerised banking.
For retail, online shopping is easier for the retailer in most cases. If they can automate most things then they will for the convenience of the retailer, not the shopper.

@Room102 I agree, mass migration from climate change and AI will lead to a scarcity of jobs which most of us cannot imagine.

Room102 · Today 14:46

Government does not pay more for public sector staff in London. That's why in cheap areas they are very well off and in London and SE they are struggling.

London weighting is an allowance paid to certain civil servants, teachers, airline employees, PhD students, police and security officers in and around London, the capital of England. It is designed to help these workers with the cost of living in Greater London, which is higher than that of the rest of the UK.[1] Its purpose is to encourage key workers to stay in Greater London.

https://publicsectorpay.org.uk/nhs-london-weighting-pay-bands/#:~:text=The%20Inner%20London%20weighting%20for,a%20maximum%20of%20%C2%A37%2C746.

Yes they do.

I seem to be missing something here.Surely if low wage manual workers were replaced by AI ,then the companies employing them would not be paying the Robots as such ,so where would all this money to pay UBI come from? They would have plump profits and no workers to be taxed! Unless there is a grand scheme to tax the company owners! I dont feel worried about this as I dont see how it could work

@dottiedodah well someone would still be making a profit, unless robot CEO's came to be. Therefore those profits (corporation tax) would have to pay for UBI

Where’s this money coming from? Jesus, just another excuse for people NOT to work and bleat about how hard done by they are!

@Throwncrumbs please tell us what your job is and how it will be safe from AI?

Beezknees you should be paid for doing your job but from the company that makes a profit from your work and not the government.

Why should money made through the taxation of others bump up your wages? If the company were paying you adequately so you weren't in need of benefits you'd be paying tax on your earnings which is better for the economy than having a percentage of your wage be from benefits that aren't taxed.

They can, if they are buying in an area where housing is cheap.

I agree totally! But that's not up to me to implement. This way suits the government more, as the tax payers pay for it and their rich mates stay rich. So I'm not going to feel guilty over something that I don't control.

As I said upthread that's exactly the point: the link between work and "money" will be severed, and the huge productivity gains will have to be viewed as a public resource with huge "tax" in current parlance on the productivity generated by that automation: tax on capital, not work. Who will "buy' these products if 90% of the population is destitute?

Reading the comments on the thread the incomprehension seems to largely stem from the misapprehension that a capitalist system is the only way to structure things and how this would work within that. The answer is that obviously it wouldn't and won't, that's the point. Capitalism has been necessary because of scarcity of resources, and the need for labour to produce them. We are talking about a situation where that is no longer the case therefore if humans exist at all, capitalism will be defunct because the purposes it is designed to serve are no longer relevant.

In work benefits are a form of UBI, you only need to work a small amount to claim them and when you work more they drop off. How many posters on here deliberately work less and moan about a pay increase depleting their benefits, how many of them celebrate not having to claim benefits but see earning more through working more hours as something admirable and worthwhile??

"Capitalism is the worst system...apart from all the other ones."

Yes. So far.

But that is the case because of scarcity of resources.

If that ceases to be an issue, other types of systems that were not possible to even imagine before become viable.

I work in finance and economics btw. If anybody considers that relevant.

I don't really get this. Resources ARE scarce, that's the point. Either they're allocated by money or by a government or other institution. How do resources suddenly become abundant? They've got to be mined, grown, made, transported...

Ah. Is this a modern monetary theory thing?

@Room102 Yes, your background is relevant, I think. You've made clear points in terms a layman like me can understand. I'm also confused about resources. Aren't we expecting droughts, water shortages, crop failure?

Tbh I find this more compelling an argument than just focusing on UBI

Yes there will likely be mass migration and shortages of water etc and the U.K. is probably better placed. We could, like some other countries, use geography to our advantage but if it’s very bad it may become more volatile.

I‘m ok with their education though. We can’t really predict what they need but they will likely adapt as things change.

It may be bad or we may develop with ingenuity and population decline takes us to a more balanced with nature world.

Do you mean work / labour resources as natural resources will be scarce

Because of tech. Already there are advanced farming methods that don't degrade soil for example, on multiple levels so use less land. Why aren't we investing in this, for food security? Why do we import hydro power from Norway when surrounded by coastline? Natural resources (mostly) aren't scarce, they are just being used in a wasteful and destructive manner because the money is being invested in the wrong things. Hundreds of billions spent on defending humanity from killing each other instead of on the technology that can provide an abundance of food and energy etc for all. Especially with what is coming in terms of computer processing power and what AI will be able to unlock for us in terms of better use of those natural resources available to be able create enough for everybody, advance technologies far faster, exponentially in fact. As computer power has been growing exponentially ever since computers were invented: the progression of technology is not linear. The question is about how this is harnessed, and for what purposes, and how the gains are distributed.

So what your saying OP is that we should all be reliant on the government for hand outs and AI can pick up all the work.

What ever could go wrong with that, it's not like the government then has direct control of its population, vote for us or else, comply or your benefits will be stopped and don't think you can get a job to support your self as AI is doing all the paid work.

Yep bliss, you expect business to pick up all the tax, how are these business supposed to thrive? Your taxing them to oblivion with one hand and expecting them to grow with the other? Or are these magical Ai robots going to fund themselves and maintain themselves or again are the government going to own them or are the richest in the world yet again have a monopoly on them. You think they are going to care about poor people.