Universal basic income and what it may look like

[porkpiesinthepark]

I've been thinking for a while about the criticism of UBI and I think it's due to people not being able to imagine the government trying to 'match' peoples wages. In my opinion, it never will but there will be alternatives to what we have now, which will be able to offer something better.

So say the UBI is £1000 a month for a single person.
We could change the housing market to allow much more public housing with rents set at an affordable level, much more stability, no private landlords and the option to customise/ change your home. Let's face it, home ownership is out of reach for the majority at present. I don't find people are dying to own their own homes but desperate to be out of the instability of the private rental market, out of parents houses, out of house shares etc. If you could offer the next best thing to owning your own house, I think people would go for it.
There would be much more community linked to people having extra time due to not working or not working as many hours. Now, not having enough to do in the day is bad but most people have these huge dreams for retirement and this would just allow them to do some of these things now instead. Also more volunteering, looking after elderly relatives etc.
I don't think that private car ownership would be a thing. There would be a big system like Uber who you could call rides on. There would be a cheaper option, say if ten people wanted to go to the city centre at the same time, they would have to walk to a hub and then the van would pick everyone up, like public transport but based on demand. It would be a status symbol to be able to call a car out just for you.
I think a lot more people would wfh getting the cost of transport and childcare down. Schools might even go remote, as there wouldn't be both parents working and so in theory they could help facilitate the lessons. Then teachers would have small classes of Sen kids like mine, key workers and vulnerable children. Kids would interact with others through volunteering groups with parents, or just playing out as there would be less cars and more parents around to keep an eye on them.
People will either hate this vision as it's so different to what we have now. Or they will like some parts. But what we have now can't continue.

Some huge change in how the financing of society is structured is going to be necessary because otherwise a large proportion of the population will be destitute. And businesses in their current form cannot function if there are vanishingly few people who can buy their products.

A very large proportion of the population cannot live on £1000 per month or whatever, in many areas this won't even cover half of their mortgage. It makes no sense either to build lots of social accommodation and force people to move to that leaving their current homes abandoned as nobody has money to buy them. In practice large scale debt forgiveness will be required as part of restructuring (many precedents for this in history but not on this scale of course as societies were smaller and less interconnected).

There is also the issue that while AI will hugely reduce the work required by humans some roles will still require humans and you need to be able to get people to do them. There will also be new roles that don't exist now and require lots of new skills.

The problems are not insurmountable but it will be a time of enormous change that's difficult to predict in terms of how it will play out. Particularly given the interactions with climate change (flooding, energy and food shortages, huge mass migrations) and also population collapse due to low birthrates everywhere outside subsaharan Africa. All of this requires a lot of long-term scenario planning, investment, infrastructure change. I suspect it will end up being chaos unfortunately because this won't be done, just like there was no proper planning even for a pandemic which was entirely predictable and predicted.

Why is it sterile? The idea is people have much more free time so they can spend that doing whatever they choose.

The taxes will be on businesses and capital instead.

Tbh your problem OP has been happening in many other countries. People leave to make a better life for themselves. In some of those countries the politicians found a way to deceived with handouts and promises of a better life. Let Venezuela be a cautionary tale for you.

There is not free lunch I am afraid.

Why is it sterile? The idea is people have much more free time so they can spend that doing whatever they choose.

The OPs idea involved remote learning and work. No physical shops with everything being delivered.

That sounds sterile and boring to me. Where is the social interaction, the small talk the little interactions that actually make a difference.

It depends. What is your job and how many hours a week do you devote to it?

I think UBI is a good idea, but not necessarily the way you propose. Providing people with a financial safety net improves mental and physical well-being, but doesn't necessarily improve one's ability to find work. I think if it were introduced, it would need to be with open eyes about what the benefits are. As I can see it, one of the benefits saves the Gov money in other areas ie. improved health means preventing health issues which wind up costing the Government money in terms of those accessing NHS services.

Some early info on an experiment in Finland is here:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/02/the-results-finlands-universal-basic-income-experiment-are-in-is-it-working/

It is worth considering, on the basis of what other UBI experiments have shown. But the reality is, mass social wellbeing intiatives like this will never be introduced in the UK, because as a whole, the country doesn't want it.

Businesses and capital are already taxed though and wouldn't generate enough to make up the shortfall from employees working less hours. Unless the poster who replied to me is suggesting tripling business rate tax?

Why does that matter? Any full time job should be enough to live on without needing UC. I work full time 38 hours a week.

Free time but no money to do anything?

Is weird apocalyptic style shift into dystopian sci fi because of AI what the people who are disappointed that covid didn’t end that way now pinning their hopes on?

Lockdown and the furlough scheme seem to be this OP’s idea of utopia!

Let’s reinvent the soviet planned economy but throw in lockdown for extra fun.

Social change happens incrementally, inconsistently. It affects different people in different ways. It sometimes circles back. It’s not some sea change where we all
find ourselves living in one of those bloody silos from the wool trilogy afraid to go outside.

Probably. I remember a poster who used to be dramatic during Covid and would post things like "get used to seeing people only on zoom for a long long time to come."

Although there are also those who think Putin will nuke the world soon so we might not even make it another 10 years 😉

The thing is I’m not some insane dramatic person who wants to see everything turn to shit but AI really is different and it is going to change things dramatically. I use it every day and it’s amazing how much it’s evolved since December. In a few years time it’s going to be so much more powerful and it will have a huge impact whether we like it or not I’m already looking to retrain.

Yeh they were bad.

There were loads of posts like that

I’d haul arse right out of the country taking my money with me if some nut job floated this idea.

Same way many claimed they'd move out of the country if Trump was elected back then...or if Brexit happened.

We all know it's hot air. It would still happen and everyone would rather complain than leave as they said they would.

https://www.ladbible.com/news/brits-universal-basic-income-trial-england-launch-352999-20230604

@Beezknees 18k was the min when I applied for a mortgage (I'm single)
Bought an apartment in the NW

It wouldn't be 70m. It would be about 37.5m. Just working age.

Also the 200b bill will be the same but rather than spread over 23m it will be spread over 37.5m.

So current benefits people get less so incentivising them to work (that is the point) and working people have less resentment as they are given the same.
= Happier fairer society. That's the plan.

They were right. I work in a team spread across Europe. I haven’t seen many of my work colleagues in the flesh for 3 years as previously we had funded quarterly team meeting (usually somewhere with cheap flights such as Spain) but since Covid we are told that these are no longer necessary. Most of our industry events are now virtual and I have only had one customer project onsite in the past 3 years, all my other projects have been delivered without ever meeting my customer face to face. I don’t miss the early flights and being away from home Mon-Fri, but I’m under no illusion that it’s optimal. Still, it saves both my employer and our customers money so that’s the way it’s staying.

£1600 is a decent amount for the north/midlands. Maybe not for renting in the south.

True, but of course you’re still allowed to find additional work.

They weren't talking about work, they were talking about socialising.

Sign me up! My rent is only £500pm. With £1600 plus my full time wage I'd be laughing.

To live where and to support how many people to what standard?

Lets say I'm a single parent who works shifts as a HCA in a hospital in Central London and I want my three primary age DC to each have their own bedroom, and all the activities and possessions that their school friends have. I don't have a car so need my home to be near school and work.

I'd probably need to earn £100k+ to pay for the housing and childcare I need, before anything else. Not realistic.

Or there needs to be a very significant correction in house/rent prices. I'm sure that the people with million pound mortgages on properties in the area will be fine with that. And I'll easily be able to find affordable round the clock childcare when I'm on nights.