We need to start talking about population decline

[user4567890754]

The first signs of it are starting to show in the UK, with primary school closures. Secondary school closures will follow.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/11158f12-0133-11ee-a364-04e704863f75?shareToken=5ef47b2b4776be376153089146c8bacf

Italy is a few years ahead of us.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/01/plunging-birthrate-threatens-italian-schools

Japan shows where every country is headed - towards a crisis where they are on the brink of being unable to maintain social functions.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/13/asia/japan-population-decline-record-drop-intl-hnk/index.html

And yet there are still people who think that we have a problem with overpopulation. It’s the opposite.

Yes exactly. Isn't africa responsible for like 4% of global emissions? Yet it's their kids that are the problem

Why would you have to house their partners though? Potential partners will most likely have their own accommodation.
From what you’re saying your children just don’t sound interested in relationships - fair enough.
As PP said though, no one decides not to have a partner purely because of finances.

In the short term we need to help younger people settle into adulthood. Making housing more affordable, secure jobs etc. Young people are having families later due to cost of living rising faster and it becoming harder to move from parents homes. We are keeping them as dependants far too long. I had had two children by 22yo and was running my own home (renting) but my own young 20’s can’t find anything affordable so they are still at home.

As a society we have forced the need for two wages to pay basics so women aren’t so keen to be doing it all so having fewer children as childcare costs are high.

We need to focus on helping our young adults much more if we want them to feel it is possible to have children of their own.

A reduction in the older population may happen naturally if we have more pandemics and eventually something might happen that will put those less able to survive at a disadvantage which will maybe shift and juggle the population like the plague did where the peasant class got more freedom to move and progress.

Or we could just stop educating women. The better educated women are, the fewer children are born in any population. https://blogs.worldbank.org/health/female-education-and-childbearing-closer-look-data . (No. I think everyone should have access to as much education as they want/need)

Yes the issue of decreasing won’t go away so what do people envisage when they say we can’t decrease

Nobody is saying that we can’t decrease. We ARE going to decrease in the UK. That has been inevitable ever since the birth rate dropped below 2.1 kids each. The actual decrease will start in 2025. The question is how are we going to manage the effects of this? How far we are going to decrease? Can we slow the decrease, and can we halt the decrease at some point? In order to halt the decrease, we will have to get the birth rate back up to about 2 kids each somehow. It’s currently at 1.6 kids and still falling.

Birth rates are below 2 kids in every European country, so immigration for Europe only exacerbates the decline in other countries.

Birth rates are falling in every country around the world. No country has successfully reversed a declining birth rate as yet, despite really trying hard. Even globally, we are at about 2.3 kids, so right on the brink of breaking even. When girls are educated and have access to contraception they limit their families, so unless we are willing to prevent poor women in various African countries from having those things then the global rate will certainly fall below 2.1, probably in around 2050. At that point global population decrease will be inevitable and as a species it will be the same question of how will we manage the effects and can we slow or halt the decrease.

Nobody is advocating for a perpetual increasing population. That’s not desirable or probably even possible at this stage.

Ideally we would decrease a bit, change our behaviour to benefit the planet, and then halt the decrease at some point and have a stable human population that is neither increasing or decreasing. But that requires 2 kids each.

I predict that euthanasia will be legalized and abortion prohibited.

This would make more sense in a world where capital wasn’t mobile. However, that’s not this world. Taxing the wealth currently in this country, that will stay in this country, will only have short term impact. What happens when that well runs dry and funds haven’t been replaced?

There’s already a net outflow of higher earners. This results in, along with a myriad of other things, a higher burden being placed on those with less. The UK needs to attract wealth and what it brings with it, not compound the issue by encouraging further stagnation and decline.

The U.K. needs to build wealth within its own country. ‘Attracting foreign wealth’ has caused corruption and the impoverishment of its own people.

Absolutely. The real challenge is learning to live with less than we had before. Climate change is certainly going to reinforce that, but I suspect the quest for ongoing fulfilment as a species, and as individuals, means we are on the path to extinction taking with us a few other animal species also.

Don’t underestimate the amount of wealth held by the richest either. I was sent an obscene wealth calculator the other day, a nice little game showing what we could do with the wealth of one hundred and seventy one individuals in this overpopulated island. Quite frankly if they want to piss off and take their wealth with them it will make no difference to most of us at this point as they do not contribute: they merely take.

https://equalitytrust.org.uk/obscene-wealth-simulator

You might want to consider what wealth is anyway. Just a series of electronic numbers on a balance sheet in the ether??

Its It's not just population, it's the location of the population. A first world child in a developed country uses more natural resources and has a greater negative climate impact than multiple third world children.

My point was if you really cared you’d get rid of anybody old and disabled 👍 and yourself! But you’re quite happy living it seems. However no one wants to do that because it’s horrific. And yes, we do need young people to support everyone.

You could also go to the countries where there are is still intense poverty and women having far more children than they can afford. If you can solve that issue then that’ll help.

The reality is you only care about climate change because you’re alive and profiting from earth.

Euthanasia will help! What a world. Ha.

This is the worry (one of the worries). But you can see where desperate and amoral leaders’ minds may go…

Yes exactly. Which is why population decrease alone isn’t enough to tackle climate change (and other environmental issues). Behaviour matters more than raw numbers. There has to be behaviour change too.

Population growth is self regulating to some extent, when people in the developed world see how expensive it is to have children they may only have one rather than two, whereas in the developing world there may be economic benefits from having more children. From what I instead Africa is expected to see the biggest population growth in the next 50 years.

Amoral leaders are always a worry, but it’s also crazy how many people on this thread seem to have deeply misanthropic views and go on about humans being some sort of plague and how we need to drastically reduce world population.
Can’t imagine living with that kind of mindset.

I agree. It is a big part of the problem. When I was growing up, there was a house across the road bought by the council which was the equivalent size of four houses joined together and worth £££££££. A pensioner lived there alone because she had been given it when her children were teenagers and they had later all moved out.

Just wait a few more months. The Tories know they are going to lose the next GE and there will be a 'smash and grab' before they go. Inheritance Tax will be abolished and there will be a doubling up of the ISA allowance.

This. The West sucks up all of the resources during hundreds of years of industrialisation and one family in US/UK use up more resources than a small Indian village. However, it’s the family of 8 who survive on subsistence farming in south east Nigeria who only possess a couple of skinny goats and have a life expectancy of 48 who are responsible for climate change according to some.

Many counties are actually under populated. Should they reduce too?

Which countries are under populated?

Regardless, climate change is our most pressing problem, on our current trajectory we will see terrible suffering in the next 50 years.

Isn’t it where you are looking to go though? If you want younger population

also crazy how many people on this thread seem to have deeply misanthropic views and go on about humans being some sort of plague and how we need to drastically reduce world population. Can’t imagine living with that kind of mindset.

I don't think most actually think that. And you can guarantee they have dc & won't live sustainable lifestyles.