Either they increase the number of children on the existing levels of staff or they decrease the number of staff for the existing number of children. With the former each child under 2 requires 3.5m2 of floor space, 2 years require 2.5m2 and 3 and above 2.3m2. So it automatically rules out a lot of Childminders increasing the number of children they care for as they wouldn't have enough floor space. It also applies to some smaller nurseries. So if you can't increase the number of children, you decrease the number of staff.
Decreasing staff just isn't sustainable. The sector is burnt out. Totally burnt out after being treated despicably during the pandemic and not much better before that. High quality professional early years workers are already leaving for supermarkets because they are exhausted, treated badly and overworked and won't accept it anymore. They have already said they don't want to care for more children.
I don't know what the childcare models are in other countries, so I can't compare but the British model is to provide an early years education alongside looking after children. Professionals must know their key children and plan activities across the areas of learning in line with child development and track the children's development accordingly. The more small children you look after the more that's diluted. Then add in safety aspects and consider the fact that looking after several small children is bloody hard work. They have to consider behavioural difficulties, sen and individual children's needs eg potty training, separation anxiety etc.
Even if it did go ahead on a loose basis in the sense that people can decide for themselves, it's worth pointing out that the current ratio for Childminders is 3 children under 5, with potential to have 5 children under 5 IF you can meet the needs of all children, for example to meet continuity of care. At present if a Childminder charges £4 an hour for a child that rate stays the same regardless of whether they look after 3 or 5 children. It would be an unsustainable business model to reduce the rate to say £3 an hour because you had 5 children (never mind more work for less money) because any of those children could leave at any point - remembering some parents will even leave without paying the notice period, or even with unpaid owed fees. So then you have less children on the lower rate and you can't fill the spaces and are suddenly taking a huge pay cut and now need to close your business and find a job. So yes you could have more children (if you have the floor space) but not at a saving to parents.
Nurseries are a bit different in the respect that the people who run them will make the decisions and not the staff on the ground. But imagine you're an early years worker, you're burnt out or even just managing and then 40% of your colleagues are sacked and you're told you suddenly have to look after their key children, giving you an extra 2 children on top of the 3 you already have. 2 of these children have behavioural issues and 1 of them had been unsuccessfully potty training for 3 months, your Manager tells you that the activities you're doing with the children aren't broad enough meeting the needs of the children, but part of the problem is that you're struggling to help one of the children with behavioural difficulties and so you're not giving enough focused attention to the other children. For all of this you haven't been given a pay rise because fees have been reduced for parents. Thankfully you're on holiday next week and are desperate for the rest - but then a colleague phones in sick and so some of your holiday is cancelled as they don't have the staff to cover your holiday (this happened to someone I know before Christmas and is very common already). If staff are off ill you all have to cover each other because nurseries can no longer afford agency staff (because of lack of funding for the 30 hours), this of course would really cause problems if you've cut staff and people have 2-3 more key children each, potentially having to close the whole room if people are off sick and staff are well over the newly increased ratio.
This is quite similar to the current strikes that are going on for better pay and working conditions. Early Years workers are saying no to more work for less pay and essentially worse working conditions. They're saying no for themselves and for the quality of care for the children.
I get it. I'm a parent and have paid huge childcare fees myself in the past. It's part of the reason I became a Childminder. But piling pressure on a sector that is already broken and underfunded is not the answer- although looking at the NHS it seems this is our government's go to solution. The whole childcare funding system needs an overhaul. The tories won't manage that because that's not their business model, they won't deliver anything suitable for the industry and working parents. I do think that the cost of childcare has only become "such" a bone of contention since people started struggling more - I remember complaining about it 10 years ago but it was a little bit more feasible then, but people are being squeezed from every angle now so it's logical to look to childcare (when it's the next biggest cost to housing). I just think there's a bigger picture here and that it's the general cost of living - not the cost of living crisis as such - but the cost of living in general and how salaries perhaps haven't kept up with everything else. Our government needs to revise how our country works.
That was long!