I borrowed this from the book "How to do welfare" by Chris Worth (available on Amazon) where he suggests a UBI of £12,500 per adult per year. He gets the net cost down to 58 Billion. It makes for an interesting read.
www.amazon.co.uk/How-do-Welfare-Chris-Worth/dp/1912795299/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3CO56NDKO5JJ9&keywords=how+to+do+welfare&qid=1671368741&sprefix=how+to+do+welfare%2Caps%2C143&sr=8-1
There are 46.4m British citizens over 18 in the UK. Around 3.7m overseas; call it 50m. So the total bill is £625bn. More than double the current welfare bill of
£265bn. And total tax receipts were only £690bn. At first glance, this throws UBI under a train. But remember: UBI is an income, not welfare. And income
has economic benefits beyond government assistance. So let’s work out what it really costs, using the UK as an example. The answer is surprising.
- Replacing other welfare Easy targets first. UBI replaces all other welfare.
Housing benefit, Working Tax Credits, the State pension, unemployment benefits, Universal Credit, Statutory Sick Pay, Maternity Allowance, marriage
allowances, everything. Because even among families receiving more than one of these, few rack up anything like the benefits cap of £26,000. And UBI adds up to
£25,000 for a two-adult household. This takes £265bn off our £625bn figure
straightaway. We’ve already improved our cost calculation by nearly half, to £360bn. And we’ve barely started.
- Replacing tax allowances
Next, recall that UBI replaces the taxable allowance: the first part of everyone’s income before tax kicks in. With no tax allowance, the actual tax take from
people’s earnings goes up. There are 30m earners in the UK. Even accounting
for income tax alone, that’s another sixty billion to pay for UBI, reducing its net cost to £300bn. But UK tax includes other taxes: National Insurance, payable by both employees (the part you see on your payslip) and employers (the part you don’t, because it’s added to your gross income by your employer first.)
This swings in another bucketload of cash: about £1,500 in employee NI on the first £12,500 of your salary, and another £1,725 by your employer. (Yes, NI
is huge.) Another £96bn in the pot, without any changes to the existing tax system. There are further benefits up the earnings scale, since higher tax rates
effectively kick in earlier: another £7bn or so. The net cost of UBI is down further, to £197bn. Less than the UK government has committed to various foreign wars, bank bailouts, or viral pandemics in a single year. And we’ve still got plenty of headroom.