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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To not understand how raising the interest rate works?

62 replies

Charlavail · 03/11/2022 12:43

Surely then people will just have even less money to spend and the economy won't improve?
Sorry for my naivety.

OP posts:
DomesticShortHair · 03/11/2022 12:55

No, you’ve hit the nail on the head. That’s exactly the aim- to leave people with less discretionary spending, so demand (and therefore prices) drop. The collateral damage is people will lose jobs and the roofs over their heads, but that’s ok, because Jeremy and Rishi have millions, and MPs jobs are safe, at least until the next election.

FairyLightAddict · 03/11/2022 12:58

I'm glad you asked as I'm completely baffled!!

MissDollyMix · 03/11/2022 13:01

The rates help to stabilise the international exchange. A higher exchange rate will encourage overseas investors to put their money in the pound (a bit like if you are shopping on the high street for the best interest rate for your savings account). This increases the value of the pound which means it’s cheaper to import goods which, in theory, helps to ease the burden of inflation. Most economies are raising interest rates at the moment so if the BoE didn’t do anything f then the pound would tank (even further) and the price of goods will just keep increasing. In theory higher interest rates also encourage saving and discourage borrowing, they reduce the amount of cash in your pocket so it’s another way of calming inflation. Not always a very nice one though. Hopefully that helps a bit. It’s been a long time since I studied economics so I’m sure someone will be along soon with a much better explanation!

Chomolungma · 03/11/2022 13:03

Raising the interest rate encourages people to save rather than spend. When interest rates are very very low, saving may seem pointless. The theory is that if people are spending less, inflation should fall due to lower demand for goods.

Badgerandfox227 · 03/11/2022 13:04

That’s the idea, it’s to stem inflatation, but yes it will mean we have less to spend, so demand reduces. Going to be tough on a lot of people.

Mrmoody · 03/11/2022 13:04

It's to do with supply/demand.

The more you demand something but don't increase supply (which we can't do quickly) the cost goes up (inflation), by raising interest rates we don't have the money to demand goods, reducing demand and bringing inflation back down.

You don't have the money via both choosing to save and by borrowing costing more.

BarbaraofSeville · 03/11/2022 13:05

Increased interest rates generally means reduced disposable income so people spend less and demand and hence prices fall.

However this time most inflation is due to rising prices in essentials like food , energy and fuel so things that people can't generally buy significantly less of and has risen due to factors not related to increasing demand. So I'm not sure if rising interest rates is actually going to reduce inflation significantly.

I do hope I'm wrong or if not, they change their strategy before we're in a position where we have no leisure services left because people are spending all their money on housing, food, fuel and energy and don't have any money for everything else so all the restaurants, gyms, attractions, sports and concert venues etc etc have all gone bust.

Mrmoody · 03/11/2022 13:06

We also need to remember the BOE is separate to the government and have the main target of 2% inflation, so although they work with the government one does not directly influence the other (supposedly..)

Worriedddd · 03/11/2022 13:08

We have too , the worlds reserve currency is the dollar. Oil , gas etc are traded in dollars. The fed have upped the rates so we have too or sterling tanks. This would be a lot worse than rates going up.

freckles20 · 03/11/2022 13:10

Thanks for clarifying that @DomesticShortHair.

What I'm confused about is that prices are rising due to things beyond the control of 'producers'. So I don't understand why a drop in demand would make them reduce their prices?

Apologies if I've missed the point.

Maybe though I'm a case in point? I'm a self employed dog walker. I need to put my prices up. I held off raising them during the pandemic in an effort to 'read the room' and because some people generously kept me on despite being able to walk their own dogs due to wfh.

Now I am resisting raising my prices as I know almost everyone has less disposable income.

Lozzybear · 03/11/2022 13:11

@BarbaraofSeville I share your concerns. It doesn’t matter how much the BOE increase interest rates, it won’t bring the cost of food, energy and fuel down.

Londongent · 03/11/2022 13:13

Interest rates need to rise so the pound doesn't fall against dollar and push up inflation further as a PP mentioned.
It's not about reducing spending so retailers reduce their prices. This doesn't work when prices rise due to push inflation.

Shinyandnew1 · 03/11/2022 13:17

From what they were saying on the radio, raising interest raises means that people will spend less and save more to help inflation.

But if people can’t afford to save and they can’t afford to even buy food/housing/energy/petrol, then they will HAVE to borrow. This isn’t about buying fewer trinkets and takeaways, it’s about affording the basics.

Surely all this will help is the pockets of the people running payday loan companies?!

OminousBirdAWing · 03/11/2022 13:19

What I'm confused about is that prices are rising due to things beyond the control of 'producers'. So I don't understand why a drop in demand would make them reduce their prices?

Those that can, will - and will survive.

Those that cannot drop prices but supply essentials goods or services, tend to survive because enough people have no choice but to find the money somehow, though some cannot and this leaves them in such a vulnerable position.

Those businesses that cannot drop prices and supply services or items that people can live without, stop being viable and close. I fear a number of busineses will be in this spot: years of cheaper living costs meant people bought inessential goods and services for convenience or fun etc. and those businesses grew in that environment.

It's a shit situation for all - as it is the other way when there is zero inflation. It's the reason the target is always around 2%.

Manekinek0 · 03/11/2022 13:23

We import much of what we consume. When we buy these imports we have to exchange funds to other currencies. If the base rate is raise then it encourages investors to put more money into UK banks, which in turn encourages international traders to buy Stirling which pushes it's price up. The other option is to let the pound fall and then imports become more expensive (due to exchange rates) and this pushes up inflation further.

GloomyDarkness · 03/11/2022 13:27

The theory is that if people are spending less, inflation should fall due to lower demand for goods.

This is the basic idea.

However cost of living rises combined a shortage of workers means there is pressure on wages to increase - which could mean a wage-price inflation cycle which is apparently partly what happened in 70s UK.

WeBuiltThisBuffetOnSausageRoll · 03/11/2022 13:27

However this time most inflation is due to rising prices in essentials like food , energy and fuel so things that people can't generally buy significantly less of and has risen due to factors not related to increasing demand. So I'm not sure if rising interest rates is actually going to reduce inflation significantly.

Exactly. The only thing I can assume is that they want more people on the streets, freezing and starving. It's one thing dissuading people from buying expensive handbags or going to fancy restaurants; quite another putting basic essentials beyond their reach.

That said, I also struggle to reconcile what we are told: that inflation is a bad thing that is caused by excessive consumption, and therefore we need to reduce demand; BUT it's always lauded as a fantastic thing when new markets open/expand and jobs are created and we hear of 'consumer confidence' spoken of in a very positive light. Just for one of very many, I remember when Nissan opened their plant in Sunderland, there was jubilation about the boost to the local economy; and, as you'd expect, sales of Nissans increased in the region - and the country as a whole - as well as the cars made for export.

The logical conclusion would seem to be that high streets closing down and derelict shopping centres would be the best thing for our economy?! Saving is a good thing, but only as a means to delaying spending money until a more important/desired time: if huge amounts of it remain forever in a billionaire's bank account for willy-waving purposes, it ceases to be a useful part of the economy at all.

Lottsbiffandsmudge · 03/11/2022 13:28

In this case its about exchange rates not supply/ demand.

MarshaBradyo · 03/11/2022 13:29

I heard the most depressing interview criticising the BoE from a former BoE spokesperson this morning. Talking about how we shouldn’t be doing this, last thing will end badly etc

At some point you have to disengage - well I do anyway it’s just too much

DogInATent · 03/11/2022 13:30

Unemployment rises, pressure to increase wages decreases.

MintJulia · 03/11/2022 13:32

MissDollyMix · 03/11/2022 13:01

The rates help to stabilise the international exchange. A higher exchange rate will encourage overseas investors to put their money in the pound (a bit like if you are shopping on the high street for the best interest rate for your savings account). This increases the value of the pound which means it’s cheaper to import goods which, in theory, helps to ease the burden of inflation. Most economies are raising interest rates at the moment so if the BoE didn’t do anything f then the pound would tank (even further) and the price of goods will just keep increasing. In theory higher interest rates also encourage saving and discourage borrowing, they reduce the amount of cash in your pocket so it’s another way of calming inflation. Not always a very nice one though. Hopefully that helps a bit. It’s been a long time since I studied economics so I’m sure someone will be along soon with a much better explanation!

This

WeBuiltThisBuffetOnSausageRoll · 03/11/2022 13:33

I heard the most depressing interview criticising the BoE from a former BoE spokesperson this morning. Talking about how we shouldn’t be doing this, last thing will end badly etc

The BoE is there to make sure that the country as a whole can prosper as much as possible, under any given circumstances. It must just be a complete co-incidence that, as always, the rich seem to get richer and the poor get poorer....

TurquoiseDress · 03/11/2022 13:33

Thanks for posting this I feel somewhat similar!

Vague recollections of A level economics, on an international level this makes sense

But on the individual level it feels insane, how can the average person afford to save any of their income when costs are rising?

Not referring to the cost of that fabulous pair of shoes, but the bills for gas, electricity, petrol costs and of course the mortgage or rent

Worrying times indeed

runjy · 03/11/2022 13:35

In this case its about exchange rates not supply/ demand.

yes

runjy · 03/11/2022 13:36

also emergency low rates aren't a good thing, they just inflated assets.