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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To not understand how raising the interest rate works?

62 replies

Charlavail · 03/11/2022 12:43

Surely then people will just have even less money to spend and the economy won't improve?
Sorry for my naivety.

OP posts:
Kanfuzed123 · 03/11/2022 15:47

BarbaraofSeville · 03/11/2022 13:05

Increased interest rates generally means reduced disposable income so people spend less and demand and hence prices fall.

However this time most inflation is due to rising prices in essentials like food , energy and fuel so things that people can't generally buy significantly less of and has risen due to factors not related to increasing demand. So I'm not sure if rising interest rates is actually going to reduce inflation significantly.

I do hope I'm wrong or if not, they change their strategy before we're in a position where we have no leisure services left because people are spending all their money on housing, food, fuel and energy and don't have any money for everything else so all the restaurants, gyms, attractions, sports and concert venues etc etc have all gone bust.

Ive been thinking the exact same thing, without tackling the route cause (largely energy) all rising interest rates will do is make people poorer with less disposable income to spend on the rising energy bills.

surely the only real solution is some sort of nationalised energy where pricing is controlled as this ‘price cap’ is a massive farce and Hunt as reneged on the maximum price guarantee

uihuir894398 · 03/11/2022 16:41

Actually we are just following the US. Their economy is a bit more overheated that ours. The joys of being a small island - high inflation, high taxes and high interest rates. It's also about Brexit making imports more expensive. We produce little but import a lot. A lot of chickens are coming home to roost.

BleuNoir · 03/11/2022 17:07

USA economy doing well at the moment.

powell, the Fed chairman will only stop raising when employment starts to kick in.

yesterday they raised again and the market started going up.

so he immediately started talking about more raises.

interesr rates have been artificially low for too long.

you have The Fed to blame for this. Honestly think they are a bunch of incompetent fools. Unelected also the last time I checked.

they should have tightened much further back.

and yes whatever USA does we have to follow.

if we don’t raise, sterling will slide and our imports become very expensive. Not good for inflation either.

the difference is, usa was doing better anyway and they’ve no Brexit to cope with. So they can keep raising.

in the meantime, we’ll just get broken.

andrew Bailey is rubbish. He could have raised as well months ago.

so very very behind the curve. An absolute loser in my view. EU no better.

expect deep recessions this side of the Atlantic

sorry but it will get a lot worse before it gets better.

WeBuiltThisBuffetOnSausageRoll · 03/11/2022 17:11

Higher interest rates mean people borrow less and spend less. So the economy slows down and companies can’t put their prices up so quickly.

What's the rationale behind companies putting their prices up, though? Is it a case of them greedily pushing their profits as high as they can get away with or is it them being forced to pass on their increased costs in order not to go under? I'm guessing a lot of it depends on business size, mind.

veronicaaa · 03/11/2022 17:15

BleuNoir · 03/11/2022 17:07

USA economy doing well at the moment.

powell, the Fed chairman will only stop raising when employment starts to kick in.

yesterday they raised again and the market started going up.

so he immediately started talking about more raises.

interesr rates have been artificially low for too long.

you have The Fed to blame for this. Honestly think they are a bunch of incompetent fools. Unelected also the last time I checked.

they should have tightened much further back.

and yes whatever USA does we have to follow.

if we don’t raise, sterling will slide and our imports become very expensive. Not good for inflation either.

the difference is, usa was doing better anyway and they’ve no Brexit to cope with. So they can keep raising.

in the meantime, we’ll just get broken.

andrew Bailey is rubbish. He could have raised as well months ago.

so very very behind the curve. An absolute loser in my view. EU no better.

expect deep recessions this side of the Atlantic

sorry but it will get a lot worse before it gets better.

This!

Changerofthename1 · 03/11/2022 17:25

The writing was on the wall two years ago the plan is was to inflate away the debt.

Thanosette · 03/11/2022 17:28

to put it simply, it's shearing season (for the overly indebted)

uihuir894398 · 03/11/2022 17:29

Unless BoE don't start explain the real reason why they don't have a choice to raise the rates, people won't get it. They won't get that we may end up with rates that aren't good for us but we have no choice but to have them. Even with Covid, we followed the Fed, i.e. no real choice

MarshaBradyo · 03/11/2022 17:35

I think a big part of US doing well is their energy supply. Unlike eurozone. We’re going to be hurt by this war more (although not forgetting suffering for people in Ukraine atm)

If it ends and supply is resolved things might improve, although who knows when that would be even after it ends.

uihuir894398 · 03/11/2022 17:40

Exaclty people forget that the US is an energy exporter. Yes, it also imports oil but the high gaz prices have been good for business. Plus, military industrial complex is also doing well. Plus they have a greater pull to dictate the terms. The UK doesn't, it exports gaz but has no storage, it is managing Brexit....it's tough. Its a toxic combination of Brexit, Covid and Russia's war plus decades of austerity that has depleted much of the public sector. But if neither the government or the BoE are willing to tell it how it is, the public won't understand.

Worriedddd · 03/11/2022 17:59

GasPanic · 03/11/2022 14:44

There are a lot of fallacies around rate setting. The first is that the BOE is somehow "independent" and can set its rate independent of the rest of the world. It can, but the consequences of this are that it would trash the currency, as all the money would move to countries that offer a higher return.

Currently the major western banks are all increasing rates (US, Canada, Europe), so we have to increase rates too. The primary driver at the moment is the US, but Europe are not so far behind. We have to keep our rates competitive with the US otherwise the currency is toast.

So the government has a choice, either trash the currency or plunge the country into a recession. The second of those is a better choice than the first (but the first might lead to the second and vice versa).

The real issues will start to come if the US cannot get its inflation rate under control. There are a lot of people who believe it did not start raising rates early enough, so now it will have to raise rates higher in order to crush inflation. In that scenario, we may be in a situation where the US continues to raise rates, and even though we have been plunged into a recession we will need to continue to raise rates along with them and Europe to stop a currency collapse. This could result in a sustained and prolonged recession (depression).

Most of this is fall out from the money printing we did after the GFC of 2007-2008. We used QE to mitigate the recession, which was probably the right thing to do. But unfortunately rather than using it to buy time to restructure the economy through the 2010s, we basically returned to our pre-2007 behaviour, building an economy again too dependent on credit and ever inflating assets such as house prices. This was encouraged by keeping interest rates far too low, and boosting the housing market with unnecessary policies like help to buy.

During the 2010's we had a great opportunity to let asset prices/house prices fall gradually and let the market reset and come to a better equilibrium point, but instead government policy and low interest rates pushed them ever higher.

Now we are in a position where we have no choice. We can't borrow or print money to bail out those who have taken on too much credit - the markets won't let us. We have to continue to raise rates to protect the currency, if we do it is likely to put us in recession, if we don't it will trash the currency. So it is a case of a hard object meeting a brick wall. There are no easy choices moving forwards.

This is completely true they never let the market reset so now we will have lots of pain.

BleuNoir · 03/11/2022 18:05

USA is not an energy exporter. there's a big shortage of diesel in the USA right now and they are digging into their strategic reserves like never before.

Only 28 days of diesel left in the USA.

Why does America have a diesel shortage?
High distallate (heating oil and diesel) demand amid low inventories.
Refinery maintenance- this happens in the spring and fall and means lower capacity.

Capacity has fallen in the past few years because several unprofitable refineries were closed.

The primary reason is the cutoff of Russian imports.

Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the US was importing nearly 700,000 barrels per day of petroleum and petroleum products.

Most of those imports were finished products and refinery inputs that boosted distillate supplies in the U.S.
Source: Forbes

There's a lot of posturing by Arab nations right now not doing what Biden wants.

It's getting hot out there and it'll be interesting to see how this pans out.

No more arms deals to Saudi perhaps? MBS is desperate to make his mark but Qatar and others equally unhappy with the USA.

Anyway, the situation goes way beyond what is going on in our little neck of the woods as we raise our interest rates a peasly little 0.75%.

I'm afraid we're small fry and USA determined to see the back of Russia, even if it means a recession here. And to be fair I don't mind - they had our backs in WW2 - eventually.

70% of the world lives under an autocracy. The democracies have to stick together. Or it's the end of places like Mumsnet etc.

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