I don’t think many people truly realise the scale and severity of climate change, it still seems to be portrayed as some sort of distant threat to “others over there” but the reality is all starting to appear.
All the increases in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events we have seen over the last few years are happening with 1.1 degree rise in temperatures. Business as usual would result in 4-5 degree rise and even with all the current pledges and commitments to net zero we are still on course for a 2.5-2.9 degree rise.
At this level you’re looking at the displacement of around 1-3 billion people and the loss of large swathes of food producing land.
Food is the real worry for me. We got a little glimpse of this this year when India suffered climate change induce crop failure of its wheat harvest, resulting in reduced yield and quality of the crop.
Some 60% of all calories consumed by humans come from just three crops, all of which have relatively narrow growing conditions, as far as maintaining a supply that can meet global demand, and all of which are grown in areas liable to experience significant impacts from climate change. This impact is already being felt in developing nations and while the developed world is still relatively insulated from it, all it will take is a few more reduced harvests or failures and the global supply chain for food will start to crack for us too. Right now money still talks but soon food will be too valuable to sell and that’s when the wars will start.
The scariest thing is that even if we stopped all emissions today we’d still be dealing with all the issues we have now, those aren’t going away. But by putting it off until at least 2050 we’ve got another 27 years or so of increased temperatures plus all the impacts that will bring. Unless we find some miracle future tech or accept drastic changes in living those still alive by then are really going to be struggling and widespread displacement, war and starvation will be common.
I suppose that’s why people and governments continue to down play it all, a message of “we’re all fucked” isn’t a vote winner or something anyone wants to hear.