I'm actually pleased with the mini-budget

[yubgummy]

(Cue hysterical shrieking ;) )

Macroeconomics is complex. It surprises me that within a week, there's such a strong consensus that everything about the mini-budget is literally the work of the devil. Echo chamber...

The UK basically has never recovered from the GFC and has just been stagnant and struggling for a decade. The clear theme in this budget is encouraging people to actually get out and DO something ("supply-side reform"). Tax incentives for businesses to invest in plant & machinery, reducing red tape for infrastructure investment (more North Sea licences, more onshore wind), tax cuts to base rate & NI to encourage people into work...

I would like to see more action on interest rates from the BoE, and I would like to see more detail on the Planning & Infrastructure Bill, but I want to give them a chance instead of calling for yet another change in government. Supply-side reform is a perfectly sane strategy and the UK economy does need to get moving, by which I mean, producing new and useful goods and services not just keeping the whole country on life support.

Why are ordinary working folk expected to look past their (dire) personal circumstances to see the benefit to the country and yet bankers couldn't possibly be expected to put up with bonuses less than double their annual salary otherwise they'd flee the country?

@noblegiraffe this annoys me so much and shows the whole "I'm alright Jack" mentality.

Firstly, those who are 30 and under will not know anything different than low interest rates because we entered adulthood with low interest rates. And funnily enough we don't get taught economics and the history of UK politics/economics in school so how would we know they're artificially low.

Secondly, house prices are much more expensive than they were pre 2008, so even if people wanted to go lower they couldnt. They have to push themselves to buy a 3 bed semi, their not buying 5 bed detached mini mansions...

Finally, I don't think you can say they're temporary/artificially low after 12 years, at that point they're just low.

People can’t get mortgages as big as previously due to the increased cost of servicing them with increasing interest rates and/ or people don’t want to buy as they think prices will crash therefore becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. More people will stay put if they can to save moving costs and mitigate risk. If buyers can’t or won’t pay the price then prices will drop.

Millions don't agree with you.

The present situation is nothing at all like the ‘80s.

I hate this budget
It isn't about those on breaking and struggling it takes odd higher take rate for higher earners to increase national debt

And itv other rescue packages welfare ie nhs and social card budgets will be slashed

You do know that adult social care and nhs was slammed dyeing covid and have a huge backlog? And it'll be two years before we even clear that and people are already shouting at us? No zero tolerance for us ? Me and my colleagues are abused at least 3x a week..,it's become our norm 😱 in an unacceptable way

Hey wonder what it'll be like when we can't keep people alive let alone safe?

No I am not happy but heyho richer people get more money instead of tax . 🎉Yeay them! 🎉🥳

You’re missing my point!

Sorry my phone auto incorrected some of my text

But I'm so unbelievably mad and upset about this

Firstly, those who are 30 and under will not know anything different than low interest rates because we entered adulthood with low interest rates. And funnily enough we don't get taught economics and the history of UK politics/economics in school so how would we know they're artificially low.

This is a very odd way of looking at it.

Because that's what they need to raise to buy a house and the alternative is spending equally ludicrous amounts on rent? They may be overcommitting but the vast majority are doing it to get a roof over their heads and some stability, not because they fancy a 10 bed mansion.

I predict people will die as a result of this mini budget

And it won't help those poorest, it helps those richer

Bl@@dy tories 🥺🥺😰😰 absolute selfish b//£tards

Alll truss is doing is causing pain before she and tories get ousted

Labour will have a landslide and she is making it blipping certain

Let's imagine that the Tory wet dream was correct, and that tax cuts for the wealthy would actually stimulate growth and investment that would benefit everyone.

This would still have been a dreadful budget.

The single biggest crisis facing the country before this was inflation. It remains the single biggest crisis. Interest rates were already going to have to rise - some as a result of global conditions and some as a result of Brexit (higher costs of trading, staff shortages fuelling inflation).

But the budget on Friday means inflation would be even higher because of the money it would pump into the economy, meaning interest rates need to be highest than otherwise just to make up for that. And then, because the markets had no confidence in the plan, the £ plummeted, which will push inflation still further (necessitating higher interest rates), and finally, the cost of Government borrowing has soared because markets do not trust this Government.

All of this will push up interest rates far more than they would have been if they had just been responding to inflation caused by global conditions. Those interest rates will wipe out the benefit of any tax cuts for many, many people.

The argument that 'the experts' have criticised this so it must be wrong forgets that it is the experts that got us here in the first place. Check the record of predictions by the IMF and not there reactionary statements in hindsight, and see how expert they really are.

@Tiani4 I really hope enough poor people will turnout to vote them out, and the non-poor will have a heart at the polls. We (disabled people) literally cannot take any more of this.

Who cares about the IMF? I'd be more concerned that the BoE had to intervene to save pension funds from its own government.

@yubgummy i assume you are not an economist?

FFS - the budget isn't wrong because someone criticised it.

It is wrong because it has massively increased the cost of Government borrowing (money that will have to come from public services), almost caused pension funds to collapse but for a £65 billion bailout, and will necessitate interest rates far more than would otherwise be needed (wiping out any benefit from both the energy cap and tax cuts, choking growth and putting millions at real risk of poverty).

“Supply-side reform is a perfectly sane strategy and the UK economy does need to get moving, by which I mean producing new and useful goods and services”

This is 100% correct. It is also the reason why Germany, the Scandinavian countries and even some of the former Eastern European countries have prospered so well over the last 20 years while the UK has stagnated. They have even prospered while being high-tax, highly regulated economies.

In order for the UK to join them, there needs to be investment in education, infrastructure, training, facilities and a shift from "services" to a mixed economy. There also has to be stability and accessibility to affordable housing, child care, elderly care and healthcare.

None of these are on the Conservative's policy list though. Quite the opposite. So there is a complete disconnect between the aspiration and the strategy for achieving the goals.

I’m delighted with the budget
at last the true nature of the Tory mindset is revealed
short term pain for many but long term gain for us all

Macroeconomics is complex

which is why I listen to the IMF. Who are not at all happy with the mini-budget.

I think the IMF is probably more qualified to comment, OP.

Oh fuck off, Liz!

My post says 'the argument that...' is not a valid one. It says nothing about the actually budget. It's just saying that relying on just one set of experts should not be the whole basis for any view on this, as it shouldn't for anything imposed on us.

The IMF and BOE don't agree with you. I think it's nuts and there's a reason a. Liz T and KK are being scrutinised on it and b. Why they haven't really come up with any decent answers for the changes being made.

@Havanananana Germany is heading straight into a recession currently. Inflation in Germany is at a 70 year high.