I'm actually pleased with the mini-budget

[yubgummy]

(Cue hysterical shrieking ;) )

Macroeconomics is complex. It surprises me that within a week, there's such a strong consensus that everything about the mini-budget is literally the work of the devil. Echo chamber...

The UK basically has never recovered from the GFC and has just been stagnant and struggling for a decade. The clear theme in this budget is encouraging people to actually get out and DO something ("supply-side reform"). Tax incentives for businesses to invest in plant & machinery, reducing red tape for infrastructure investment (more North Sea licences, more onshore wind), tax cuts to base rate & NI to encourage people into work...

I would like to see more action on interest rates from the BoE, and I would like to see more detail on the Planning & Infrastructure Bill, but I want to give them a chance instead of calling for yet another change in government. Supply-side reform is a perfectly sane strategy and the UK economy does need to get moving, by which I mean, producing new and useful goods and services not just keeping the whole country on life support.

Somehow I don't see the tories putting this sentiment on their next general election leaflets.

@yubgummy I don’t understand economics let alone macro ones. Can you put it in very simple terms, for very simple people like myself? Perhaps if we understood it better we wouldn’t be panicking so much. I can understand why people are so worried because the higher cost of living is just not sustainable for your average Jo Bloggs 😕

Which is why I’m not arguing with OP

All of those things have happened to me in the last few years, but I still haven’t taken on more than I can pay even with significant rises. It will be hard, but I won’t lose my house.

I don’t have tonnes of sympathy for the ‘squeezed middle’ who’ve taken on huge mortgages and now can’t pay them tbh.

Hi Liz

Ah, the old MN favourite: anyone who has a different opinion to me is stupid.

Love it!

The trouble with a budget is you can't divorce it from politics. "Take your medicine, you fools!" won't work when everyone remembers the ineffectiveness of austerity.

They could probably pay them on higher interest rates, but there are people who will struggle to pay them on higher interest rates at the same time as having to pay higher energy costs, petrol money and food bills.

It's the cost of everything else going up at the same time while wages in no way keep up that's really causing problems.

Nobody seems to care about people who cannot work .
We just get left.

The £650 grant won't even nearly cover the rises in my electric and gas, and that's from a letter from my supplier after the cap was lowered (lowish users don't really benefit from that). My gas and elec is going up from £1000 to £2000.

Food prices are rising and rising and yet I bet they won't rise UC in line with inflation in April. They'll just tell us again to 'work more' - what if we cannot?? Eating foodbank food is exacerbating my health condition badly.

Punishing 'assessment' system.

This is after a decade of benefit cuts and freezes 2010-2020.

I really don't know what to do. I'm considering things I shouldn't ever have to consider, just to get by. I wish I was able to work and improve my circumstances, I really miss it.

But as long as the 'I'm alright jacks' can assuage their conscience by chucking an extra few tins in the foodbank box, then I guess it's ok eh?! Or like a poster on this thread - as long as it 'only' affects those on benefits who can work more apparently..

Please, please, do what you can to make them listen that they need to raise UC at least in line with inflation.

I can pay my mortgage even if it doubled and the interest rate hits 8%. This is because I am 30, no DC yet and live in a small 2 bed flat in London... So 'starter home', no car, only 'big' expense is the mortgage. So have been able to overpay £1k into the mortgage every month.

However this was not viewed as the 'smart' thing to buy in 2019 when I bought. It is a small 1930s purpose built flat with a communal garden and most people would not consider it a good long term home for a young married couple looking to start a family. DH was insistent on us staying in London as he wanted to keep costs as low as possible . The 'smart' thing to do in 2019 with a 400k to 500k budget was to move outside London to a nice home counties town, buy a 3 bed house for that amount and spend £8000 per annum on commuter fares. Because that is 'future proof' and saves you moving in the future.and due to low interest rates, a lot of young couples did this and they stretched to the maximum in order to jump several rungs of the property ladder. For me staying in London meant that I couldn't get anything bigger than a 2 bed flat anyway for my price range so I just got the cheapest flat that I possibly could in my area. If I had moved out of London, I would probably have been tempted to 'stretch' cos spending a little more would have gotten me so much more!

But it doesn't take much math to figure out that you would have fewer savings from that approach compared to a couple like us who buy a small flat in zone 3 and use public transport/cycle. Esp now that hybrid working is the norm and many people are expected in the office three times a week. Yes we would probably have to move in the future, I am looking at bigger flats now, but I would buy that with the new interest rates in force and hence the price of the new place would be adjusted accordingly.

I agree. Its going to be painful for some but in the long term we will be better off. Ive had to put off buying a house as I feel a crash is coming but as it is at the moment they are massively over inflated and not worth the money people are paying

Supply side reform doesn't work, especially not in an inflationary context where much of the inflation is imported, beyond our control and of inelastic goods.

Trickle down economics: also doesn't work .

A big pie split unevenly leaves more people hungry than a smaller pie shared out evenly.

How can house prices crash when there is a shortage of supply and everyone needs somewhere to live.

A housing crash doesn't solve a housing crisis. It's just another crisis.

Good to see disaster capitalists like the budget though, that's a real confidence boost.

Pathetic.

If you’re a headbanger right winger who doesn’t care about inequality or millions of people being unable to afford to heat or eat then yes it’s fabulous.

So, when you concentrate on your own personal circumstances you’ll be fine?

All these people concentrating on their own personal circumstances, what is the world coming to?

Are you claiming PIP and getting LCWRA element? If you are then you’re better off than those on benefit who don’t have these top ups. If you don’t get these top ups and still run a house then you really do have it tough. I don’t know how single people on basic benefits cope, it must be awful.

New YouGov poll, the (insane) numbers speak for themselves:

Henry Zeffman
BREAKING
Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times
Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

Lab: 54 (+9)
Con: 21 (-7)
Lib: 7 (-2)
Green: 6 (-1)
Ref: 4 (+1)

Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

Very equal countries are very hard to govern because the needs of the people are so different. Scandinavian countries tend to have a much stronger social pack because they believe the state will support them if the need arises therefore they should support the state.

Gosh, add the electorate, including many, many previous Tory voters to the list of people who are WRONG about this budget.

“Supply-side reform is a perfectly sane strategy and the UK economy does need to get moving, by which I mean producing new and useful goods and services”

Like manufacturing weapons and not much else to feed the beast that is the runaway train military-industrial complex? We’re in WW3. Let’s not pretend otherwise. And every penny will feed the war machine of US Imperialism, of which we are the conjoined twin, and Russia’s own capitalistic/imperialistic agenda.

I just can’t imagine this government subsidising education or training that will be needed to get people back into jobs that don’t even seem capable of existing in the UK we currently live in.

I don’t trust the politicians implementing this mini-budget.
And what comes with this glorious vision of a Tory mini-budget? Unbridled deregulation (the Brexiteers wet dream is about to become even more real). Oh for the salad days of worrying about chlorinated chicken.
In theory, it’s all so gilded and hopeful (in the eyes of the insane putting forth this ‘sane’ mini-budget).
In practice, well, pick a bus, any bus to get thrown under.
I might be wrong. I feel like I won’t be. Just look at the mugs running the asylum!
I’m sorry to have a go, OP. I do kind of see what you mean. But honestly, how things play out in reality is often so very different than the theories that give birth to those ‘things’ and ideas that fill the heads of those with decision-making power.

What about the short-termism of shorting the pound to make a quick buck?

There are claims of Insider Trading that needs investigation because that’s a criminal offence.

Are you claiming PIP and getting LCWRA element? If you are then you’re better off than those on benefit who don’t have these top ups. If you don’t get these top ups and still run a house then you really do have it tough. I don’t know how single people on basic benefits cope, it must be awful.

UC acknowledge I'm too ill to work, but I've been on the basic rate £334 for a year.

I am choosing between using fuel and eating, and every fortnight I have to sit for days without electricity because it runs out and I cannot top up my meter until UC comes in. So I cannot use my freezer and I've lost weight. Foodbank food is making my health even worse.

People have no idea. There are very very long waits for the disability payments and lots of wrongful declines (70% I think).

Also people forget about the 5 week wait for payment, you then need to take out a loan to pay rent and live, which then reduces your payments to even below the basic level for a whole year whilst it's clawed back.

Trying to dodge OBR scrutiny seems to have been a big problem here. Makes you look like you've not done the sums and are trying to blag it.

Quite. Which is why all the markets panicked and sterling plummetted. Which means it costs a fuck ton more for the government to borrow money to pay for those tax cuts for the rich. And LT won't back down so is planning to cut services to pay for those promised tax cuts. Plus everything we import will go up in price including energy. I'm struggling to actually see how they could have made worse decisions really.