To ask for confirmation from those who aren't mathematically challenged whether I'm right or DP is right?

[Keyansier]

DP and I was talking about the Lottery rollover and it turned into a discussion argument about who was right over odds (despite both of us being crap at maths).

I said that it doesn't make a difference whatsoever what numbers you pick because each number is individual, so if there are 50 numbers, each number has 1 in 50 chance, then the next number has 1 in 49 chance, the next 1 in 48 etc, so it makes no difference if you picked numbers 1-2-3-4-5-6 because they all have the same odds (not taking into consideration the amount of people who would play that particular sequence)

He said that it's far more unlikely that the numbers 1-2-3-4-5-6 would all come out because the odds would automatically be lower because it's a rarer chance of that happening. I get what he's saying but to me, that's not right, because the numbers don't have to come out together in a sequence, they are all treated individually.

Who is right?

You are right.

You are

You are right.

Vindicated! Thank you!

You are right.

You are right

You are! There’s another thread running where the OP could benefit from your clear explanation because she still won’t understand it, despite several pages of exasperated replies 😁

I agree with you. Each number has equal chance of being drawn, and those first 6 that we have chosen to count by could come out 5,3,1,4,6,2 but you would still get the jackpot as if they had come out 1,2,3,4,5,6.

Any other combination of 6 numbers - in any order is just as likely, and the odds alter by 1 each time a number is drawn.

You're right.

You’re right

You are right. That sequence of numbers has the same chance of coming up as any other sequence of numbers. The fact that it would be very very very unlikely to happen is just because it's very very very unlikely to win all 5 numbers of the lottery, regardless of the combination.

Which thread is that? I might show him both to prove that I was right!

Agree. You are right. However, a quick google also suggests that some 10,000 people choose those numbers each week, so although the chance of winning is the same as any other 6 numbers, the payout could be tiny.

You are right I think

He said that it's far more unlikely that the numbers 1-2-3-4-5-6 would all come out because the odds would automatically be lower because it's a rarer chance of that happening

Bless him. Is he 8?

You are right that any set of numbers has an equal chance as the others, but not right with the maths you proposed.

if you need 6 numbers to win, and there are 50 (your example) then the odds of getting your numbers are (6/50)(5/49)(4/48)(3/47)(2/46)*(1/45)

Theoretically you are right

But for some reason some numbers occur more often than others.

It depends on how you're phrasing the question.

So you both might be at slightly cross purposes but from what you've described, you're right.

Does it help to imagine labelling all the balls with something other than numbers? Animals or names of towns or whatever. Because that's all the numbers on the lottery balls are - a label for each one.

You are right. That number combination is as likely to come up as any randomly chosen collection of six numbers. Numbers don't "know" they're not "supposed" to come out with numbers they're adjacent to.

You are obviously right if you are a woman 🤣

You are. But more people choose 1 2 3 4 5 6 so you'd have to share

www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4619270-tips-tricks-for-winning-lottery-euro-millions?page=1