To think that very few people can manage £4200 energy bills

[Butterflyfluff]

news.sky.com/story/energy-bills-forecast-to-rise-even-higher-than-previously-thought-12668906

This simply isn’t manageable for the majority of people.

Where’s this going to end?

It's been said upthread that our prices are "only" the fourth highest.

It has also been said that the German economy is so dependent upon energy-intensive heavy industry that they are exposed to this in a very different way.

That’s strange, I thought our bills were way, way higher than those in the EU

Higher than many, cheaper than some. I believe the Netherlands is currently topping the charts.

I won’t be able to afford it. Already trying to work out ways to keep warm without using the heating come winter.

We heat the minimum of rooms and use blankets and hot water bottles. As it's already tough. That figure is simply unpayable for our household.

About 9.2% of our export market goes to Germany.

So their economic woes are going to hit us as well.

We are all interconnected

www.spectator.co.uk/article/germanys-energy-crisis-is-a-warning-to-britain

Noone even mentions what will happen to schools and especially hospitals. Their budgets won't get increased, so if they keep heating and the lights on - will they have to let go of teachers, nurses and doctors? Will firemen find enough money to fill up the fire engine? Or will they turn off the heating in hospitals? For the NHS alone, heating bills will go up by 2.5 billion. For the whole public sector, a rough estimate - maybe 15 or 20 billion? Where is that coming from? The whole country is going to go bankrupt.

And you're wrong. Lots of European countries have higher bills than us, Germany being one.

Germans on average earn much more than people in the UK.

The question that should be asked is - how do costs of fuel compare to typical earnings in the UK?

You are confusing unit cost with total bills & ignoring wages and other cost of living pressures, not least lower housing costs.
We are the 2nd lowest to cut fuel pump duty, current Diesel price in France is around £1.40 litre.

RAC saying that wholesale and pump prices in UK are at their biggest difference for over a decade and that the UK motorist is paying 14p litre more than they should be... very low fruit for the Govt to act upon but they wont... wonder why?

Yes

In Germany child benefit is €200 per child per month and childcare is practically free

I'm sure a lot of families in the UK could swallow higher energy costs if they had that setup

Yes they do. One German man I know who retired here gets a state pension from Germany and one from the Netherlands. The combined pension is about €46,000 a year.

Yes Germans have good pensions, they pay rather high taxes their entire lives, that's how it works. I'm not sure their net incomes are that much higher and believe me there are plenty of Germans on the bread line.

But their benefits system is far more generous and lots of things that cost a fortune in the UK are subsidised there.

It would be interesting to compare fuel poverty rates rather than just energy costs, that would be a better comparison probably.

@MidnightMeltdown

I read through the Spectator article and this seems to be the salient part regarding the energy crisis, EU and Germany.

"The rest of Europe is now being asked to pay the price for German myopia. Of course, this would have included Britain had we still been a member of the European Union. UK consumers are already paying high prices for energy, but were it not for Brexit we would be facing even sharper prices and perhaps even rationing. Our record on renewables, too, is better than many would think. No G20 country has made more progress on decarbonisation than Britain over the past decade, either in terms of energy produced or the overall carbon footprint, imports included. Our CO2 emissions have almost halved since the turn of the century"

++++

In summary this article is factually incorrect, written by someone who doesn't understand the UK energy market and is heavily lifted from an excellent and more balanced Economist podcast on this very topic.

So let's unpick the article for a moment

1. "UK consumers are already paying high prices for energy, but were it not for Brexit we would be facing even sharper prices and perhaps even rationing."

So the gas market is an international market, if wholesale gas prices are higher in Zeebrugge or NL than they are in the UK then UK gas will be exported and sold in Zeebrugge or NL. And of course vice versa. This is basic arbitrage and the net effect is that European and UK wholesale prices converge at about the same level except for a few short term spikes in balancing.
Brexit has made no difference in keeping prices lower than if the UK remained.

The article also references Germany's request that all countries cut their gas consumption by 15%. The UK has strong LNG regas capacity which means the UK is mostly exporting gas to Europe. The UK also has minimal heavy industry. So as a result in practice it would be impossible to implement a 15% consumption cut.

2. No G20 country has made more progress on decarbonisation than Britain over the past decade, either in terms of energy produced or the overall carbon footprint, imports included. Our CO2 emissions have almost halved since the turn of the century"

This was simply due to the dash for gas of the late 1990s / 2000s where there was a massive build out of gas fired power stations because they were so much more profitable than coal, could undercut coal fired generation and as a side benefit gas fired generation produces a lot less CO2 than coal.. Tight business margins and environmental restrictions on coal led to the phasing out of coal generation.

The sharp reduction in CO2 emissions has very little to do with any Government policy (Lab or Con) and more to do with the profitable dash for gas fired generation that killed off coal fired generation.

The Americans made as much (I think more, now) of a decarbonisation of their economy through simply converting to gas and using less at more efficient rates, than Germany did by going all in on Energiewende. Vaclav Smil has a good little video discussing nations and their pursuit of renewable energy and offsets for fossil fuels.

As for German costs of energy, I'm trying to find a piece Javier Blas of Bloomberg posted a while back about the percentage of the average German's salary goes towards it. Not having luck so far, given how many comments he's made relating to their current quagmire.

Oh, this is interesting. I can see how the gulf between winter and summer usage with solar power must create an almost polar opposite energy profile across the year without a smart meter to chart it in real-time. How annoying.
@FourTeaFallOut

On the contrary, we use more electrical stuff in the evening in summer - cooking, and air conditioning when very hot, when there is no solar. In winter I cook with oil on the Rayburn, and don't use airconditioning. Our water is heated with excess solar in summer but oil in winter. So other than a bit more LED lighting and maybe the kettle on more for hot rather than cold drinks (again we use the Rayburn kettle in the evening) actually our energy use is more constant than would be expected year round. However they perpetually want more of our cash held, so they always over-estimate estimated bills and then up the direct debit a quarter in advance of a known increase 'to cover the forthcoming bills' - I think they must go back and do an average over several past years usage as we continually reduce what we use by upgrading to more energy efficient appliances, as there's no real reason to assume we will use more.
I cannot recall a time when our bill hasn't been paid for, in full, in advance of receipt of said overinflated usage if estimated bill, with at least one further month's usage held in hand on account.
I just had notification of the estimate. That's 2 on the trot estimated. As we have actually cut a lot of electricity use (replaced an appliance with A* rated, and have been actively turning stand by things off) we are now in the situation that our actual current reading is almost less than the last estimated bill. In the light of the forthcoming price hike should I own up, or carry on with paying estimated bills? They won't want to repay anything without a lot of wasted time on the phone. I'd rather pay for units in advance then them play banker without paying interest.

@doodlywoodlydingdong have you contacted your local council regarding help with downsizing? You may be able to apply for a DHP to help with moving costs or your housing association/ the housing team if it's a council house may have other schemes to assist as well.

You don't like the EU or esp Germany do you?

You really think Germany is in a worse position than the UK?

Read recently that Norway will prioritise gas supply to the EU but has issues with hydro power generation and guess who UK gets electricity from.

Every time I've gone to Germany I've found an ordered society with clean streets, cheap and efficient public transport, stuff that works affordable rented housing and folk that can go out for a drink at night without trashing the place or acting in a lary manner. Funny that - meine Damen.

Read recently that Norway will prioritise gas supply to the EU but has issues with hydro power generation and guess who UK gets electricity from

We (UK) actually have a new deal with Norway for extra gas for this winter, and we get very little electricity from Norway, I think it is about 3%.

I also see a car culture obsessed people who are about to get a reality check over their hands off approach to geopolitics, and what energy is needed to run their lifestyles. Their economy is screwed somehow more than the UK’s come this winter. And we did a very professional job here in shafting ourselves, so I guess the Germans win again.

No sympathy for Germany after what they did to the likes of Spain and Greece. A Cypriot friend has a favourite German word now: schadenfreude.

Look at German spot and forward energy prices, how much of their industry is entirely predicated on cheap energy, the Uniper fiasco, and how rapidly their economy has slowed. Then tell me I’m mistaken.

I voted Remain, but I have always hated neoliberalism, and the EU is the de facto face of that outside the USA. I agree with Corbyn, the EU needs to reform or end.

Given current bond complications and sovereign debt issues that never went away from 2012, looks like they’re choosing the latter.

Uh oh, France.

But don’t worry. Macron capped price rises at 4% and this will totally not backfire for the grid or the state’s finances.

I’m somewhat captivated by what happens to Macron next….. By capping energy prices at 4% he’s kicking the can down the road. It was just an election winner - they will have to recover their costs from their population one way or another…..

The issue will come if there's a continued or worsened global shortage. By so heavily subsidizing the price, France is implicitly discouraging any restraint in energy use.

What are they going to do if people to consume energy as before, but prices continue to rise in the markets (likely, especially once Putin closes off the last of the Russian supply once he's chosen the most impactful moment)?

Rationing may be required.