Inflation to hit 15%

[onthefencesitter]

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/inflation-bank-england-cost-living-b2137311.html

www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/03/uk-inflation-could-reach-15-by-start-of-2023-experts-say

What do you all think?

I never understood why Sunak had a temporary suspension of stamp duty tax. Why did the government give up that money they could have taken? Most people would have moved house anyway and payed it. In fact, the reduction in stamp duty maybe pushed prices up a bit.
I know of people who moved from London down into Sussex for example , they were involved in bidding wars, pushing up the prices. Five people trying to get one property.

Besides, if people can afford to buy a house for 600 or 700 k, I’m sure they can afford the stamp duty anyway. Hi

Also what about the government grants to help bogus businesses? Surely people who set up companies during lockdown, and then immediately asking for grants were obviously fraudulent?
Im not talking about genuine existing business owners who lost all their business overnight.
Why would anyone set up a brand new business during covid and immediately ask for a £50 k grant? Anyone with any common sense would see this is being dodgy surely?
We spent billions on rogue business grants and hardly any of it will come back.
Im not sure Sunak really was that great a chancellor as he made out.

Let’s cut VAT on energy bills and have a temporary suspension of green taxes on energy.
Surely that would help all of us, even for the next 18 months or so?

Like I said, made statements do not amount to facts. Try and back up your assertions with logic.

Here is some data to show how THIS contagion works. Covid has a 1% mortality rate. 80% of deaths occur in the over 65s. Almost 85% of deaths in younger people occur among those who have underlying conditions. That’s why locking up healthy people is a bad policy.

And here is some data to show how inflations works. If you increase public’s buying power beyond national productivity, then you have more made up money than goods to buy. That reduces the value of money. Printing money is called QE, and swung into action when deflation was a risk after the financial crisis. UK govt printed £445 billion between 2008-2020. It printed £450bn between 2020-2022 to pay for lockdowns. The money was printed precisely because healthy people were locked up and the economy was shut down.

That is the primary cause of the inflation we have today.

Also remember the 1980's and 17%+ mortgage rates.

And people think Liz Truss is wonderful?!

Agree it’s throwing money into the wind

It doesn’t matter that it’s targeted to lowest earners, the next day it’s history and the demands are bottomless

Indeed, I don't disagree with any of this. The scheme could certainly have been improved later on, though I think corrupt Tories using it to give money to their mates was also baked in tbh. That lot were never going to pass up the opportunity were they?

It sadly has become a race to the bottom in this country. We've no industry to speak of, our larger utilities are owned by overseas Investors, we sold off all our assets and any attempt to try and decrease the economic gap are met by accusations of wealth envy. The Tory party are beset by internal squabbles and there is a lack of talent at the top. When you have characters like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet, what hope is there?

I'm talking specifically about people whose self employed businesses were impacted by government choice to lockdown and who despite this weren't permitted furlough at the time. Actually it doesn't really affect my point though, which is that paying enough of the population enough to ensure they stay at home and behave is a necessary and unavoidable part of lockdown.

Not only that but there was talk of 10x wage mortgages. If they are doing that, it suggests to me they expect prices to continue to rise.

Whilst I totally agree, its true of all the other parties too. Labour are equally bad and unfortunately there is no viable alternative. A lot of people in this country are politically homeless. The conservatives and labour are a joke.

VAT is 5%, cutting would make little difference to those who have cut usage to the bone and are still struggling but would help the rich with high bills the most. Keep VAT but direct it to those who need it.

You conveniently forgot to mention a global pandemic that shut down the whole global trade, travel and manufacturing system, and a war in one of the worlds biggest grain and natural gas regions.

But yeah, investment in skills would have sorted it. 🙄

I totally agree with this. I could not bring myself to vote Corbyn, and conversley had equal disdain for the clown BJ.

Blair had his faults for sure, but sat left of right and right of left, where lots of people happen to sit. This binary option is not healthy, so a REAL challenge to the big two is needed.

I live in Wales under a Plaid / Labour monopoly. The worst literacy rates in developed Europe and our NHS makes the English alternative look like a well run efficient machine.

Yep this:

"dhair · Yesterday 21:03
the chickens have come home to roost: decades of wage stagnation, no investment in skills & then Brexit so now we have a super tight job market. The good times are over & living standards are now on a decline for the foreseeable"

You get what you vote for. Austerity has been going since this bunch gained power so NHS and other public sector on it's knees. It will get worse

How do you all know 'Labour is equally bad'. There hasn't been a Labour government in over a decade but hey ho carry on with that old rubbish.

Meanwhile BP declared almost 8 BILLION in profit for a few months of this year...for a few months.... rich are getting MUCH RICHER and mugs are voting for more of the same

do you think house prices will fall? Have listed my flat now and thinking of moving. but in no rush.

They should fall, but I doubt a conservative government will let them. As pp said they'll be numerous schemes to get people in that sacred property ladder.

Meanwhile people living in rented accommodation who are struggling with the price increases will eventually not be able to afford the extortionate rents that are currently being charged. BTL landlords who rely on the rent being paid in order to pay their BTL mortgages are going to be stuffed. No idea where the hell people will go when they get kicked out for non payment of rent as the councils are already struggling. The properties could get hoovered up by investment companies, but it depends whether even they'll be interested if it gets bad.

Also, if we're spending all our money on food and bills then there's going to be no money left for any extras. All those nail and beauty salons will be the first to go followed swiftly by everything else which isn't selling a necessity.

All because the energy companies need to make millions more in profits. Now is probably the time to buy solar roofing and get an electrical car.

There’s also a lot of misremembering and fiction writing about the last Labour government. Despite the demonstrable facts that education and health were in good shape, millions of children were lifted from poverty and public services were properly funded, some people persist in trying to convince us that it was an awful time to be alive. It was the best 13 years of my adult life.

@Svara you do realise that the rich and middle class are also cutting back. Every penny you take off me and our friends is money that isn't spent or invested elsewhere which leads to economic stagnation and a recession.

We have an income of X, fixed costs including saving and investments of 0.5X. That leaves 0.5X for spending if you take that 0.5X down to 0.4X due to rising prices we personally won't take 0.1X from our savings we will cut back on items we buy but don't need . Say for example instead of going to the champagne bar for drinks we might go to the upmarket chain. Instead of popping into the shops for a new outfit just because, I might wear something I already own. This feeds down to the lower paid bar staff in the champagne bar getting less hours, high street shops closing etc when you multiply it across the population.

If you can soften that to a 0.03 loss of spending power the population will cut spending less and the economy will keeping moving benefiting everyone not just those at the bottom who would get more help in your idea.

The government is also calling for pay restraint, if they don't keep costs down the middle class who control these businesses aren't going to keep pushing down their cost of living they are going to up costs and wages to compensate which will drive more inflation.

We need to all be in it together and all suffer proportionately to get out of this mess faster. Ideally we should be pushing measure that drive growth and exports, focusing on 100% employment and cutting government expenditure. But that's a pipe dream whilst our politicians play social media politics to win votes.

Of the 1.5 million bounce back loans that cost the tax payer £47 billion it is now thought that up to £17 billion will be lost to fraud.

To put this into context if you put a pound in a jar every second then it would take 561 years to get to £17 billion.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62338308.amp

The Government only reacted to popular pressure for schools to close or for lockdowns or for furlough which were all popularly supported at the time - except we are all now paying the price.

For those saying "ah but we were in a pandemic" or "that's easy to say in hindsight"- all of this was pointed out by many people during the pandemic including on MN but we're shouted down as Covid deniers, anti vaxx or granny killers who should all "stay the fuck home".

There were basic flaws in handing out these loans:
The loans were made to the company not the Directors so if the company folds there is no recourse to the Directors other than barring them as Directors for a few years.
The revenue figures for each company were self certified when they could easily have been cross checked against filed accounts on Companies House.
All this was pointed out at the time.

Lastly I have a friend who works in HM Customs at a major UK airport who during the pandemic pulled over and checked a large number of passengers (it was easier because the number of people flying had dropped so much) . They frequently found people with £500k plus in cash in suitcases flying to the Middle East.

When interviewed by police investigating whether it was drug money or more seriously financing terrorists they quickly fessed up that oh no it is "only " fraud from the Covid bounce back loans.

Come live in Wales for a while

• £135m on a failed relief road


• £130m into a 'national' airport, £42m written off


• Books banned from sale during lockdown


• Literacy rates below England


• Not met our cancer waiting tatgets once since July 2010 - England runs about 10% above wales


• 40% of population can afford nothing beyond everyday essentials


• Ambulance waiting times worse than any English Borough

This is a Labour / Plaid run governement with DEVOLVED powers in education and health and transport.

So, please don't think a Labour government would be our saving grace.

The whole system needs shake up.

If you want energy prices to come down to where they used to be then there are effectively two solutions:

1. prices stay so high that people really have to cut back on consumption and that more production (gas) is brought on line. The increase in supply and decrease in demand then leads to lower prices but this takes time and pain for consumers.
2. the war in Ukraine quickly comes to an end by throwing Ukraine under a bus and agreeing that Russia can having the Donbas and Luhansk regions and can keep Crimea. Politically I can't see this happening.

We need to all be in it together and all suffer proportionately to get out of this mess faster

With the greatest respect someone defending their right to visit a champagne bar and buy a new frock “just because” and then talking about all being in it together and suffering proportionately while increasing numbers of people depend on food banks is a very bad parody of Marie Antoinette. That’s probably the most tone deaf and callous post I’ve seen for a very long time.

Will have a jolly good read of this thread.

But what I came on to say was we cant even rely on the Bank of England of all groups.
They said 11% 6 weeks ago. Now saying 15%

People plunge into poverty and some will die.