Inflation to hit 15%

[onthefencesitter]

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/inflation-bank-england-cost-living-b2137311.html

www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/03/uk-inflation-could-reach-15-by-start-of-2023-experts-say

What do you all think?

Locking up healthy people did not make any difference for the NHS and tanked the economy. So a bad policy all around. No hindsight needed to know that. It’s simple math and science.

'Locking up healthy people'

Ok, I think we've reached the crux of your issue here - you don't understand how contagious viruses work.

I'll leave it there as this isn't a lockdown thread and I'm off to bed. Feel free to have the last word.

I won’t be spending more if we get a tax cut. Anything and everything will be going on fuel in my car, heating and eating. Exactly the same as last year but less of it because I can afford less. As I suspect will 99% of the population. We’re hardly going to be throwing it at luxury goods. It might just keep a few business going though instead of the sea of bankruptcy I predict when everyone tightens their belt to the point of strangulation (of the economy)

Locking up healthy people did not make any difference for the NHS and tanked the economy. So a bad policy all around. No hindsight needed to know that. It’s simple math and science.

Agree

@motherpuppa 5% . Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha and loads more laughter.

Had May not applied the price cap in the first place the rise would have been significantly more gradual. It was a disaster waiting to happen from the mi use the price cap happened.

For most of the 20th century people chose between heating and food often scrimping on both to get by. It's a wake up call and probably a good lesson for the snowflake generation. Most people even in the 60s and 70s didn't have central heating.

What's irksome are all the tips about turning the heating down to 17/18, wearing a jumper, keeping feet and head warm, being diligent about timers and keeping common areas warm. Many of us have been doing that for decades because we aren't spendthrift numpties.

My grandparents had draught excluders, untrendy curtains across draughty doors, a dimplex in the bathroom and in the bleak midwinter got dressed in the kitchen once the oven had warmed it up. They were not poor.

Yes I wondered about the disposable income part - for many it’ll just cover the rise in everything

It's a wake up call and probably a good lesson for the snowflake generation.

Many of us have been doing that for decades because we aren't spendthrift numpties.

Your dc may be like that but they aren't representative of everyone.

I remember the 70s, when we had a mortgage rate of 15%! I think it is highly unlikely we'll hit that again. So it could be worse.

@dhair I must thank you so much for your assumption. incorrect

take a watch of this -

That 15% you had in the 70s was of a smaller principle meaning the amount of interest you paid at that rate was lower

not only that there was less outgoings in the 70s, less competition in the workforce so the value of income to mortgage was far better than today.

That 15% you had in the 70s was of a smaller principle meaning the amount of interest you paid at that rate was lower

exactly

You still have more money for the essentials though. Everything is about demand and supply. I don't think I am overly extravagant but other than public transport and mortgage and service charges and bills, my essentials are discretionary. I need to eat but I don't need to eat salmon and the expensive rice from the Chinese supermarket daily. I don't need takeaways or going out to eat. Beans on toast would be cheaper. I don't need berry company iced tea from Waitrose or orange juice or those £1 iced coffee bottles from starbucksq. I need to keep clean but I probably don't need bubble bath or rituals facial cleanser. If we have more post tax income, I am likely to continue all these little luxuries and this drives up the price of them..

@sjxoxo
Don't like Liz's automated sounding, hyper corrective speech, and it sounds like she is just saying what she thinks people want to hear.

No spending the same doesn’t drive up the price. Increased demand drives up prices. Or increased cost.

Ok, Boomer 🙄

One is cost push inflation (which we have now) and the other is demand pull inflation which often happens when there is easy access to credit and demand for goods grows rapidly.

15% inflation is probably the best-case scenario.

It's highly likely to top 20% once Liz gets in.

If anything the prices of “little luxuries” like premium beauty products will come down in an attempt to maintain sales. I expect the hospitality, travel and beauty industries to be hit very hard. And people will stop ripping out and replacing perfectly good kitchens and bathrooms.

Everything is not all about supply and demand, it’s also about confidence - whether the emperor thinks he is dressed, or decides he has no clothes. Russia can piss about with real assets the world needs - eg oil, gas and grain. We don’t have so much in the way of real, physical assets to piss about with, as we are primarily a service economy, so we just have to hope the rest of the world doesn’t conclude we’re the naked idiot, trying to maintain power and influence with discredited financial systems and a magic money tree.

It's over £100 to dye my hair in a central London salon... There is still lots of demand though. I have switched to box dye cos it's just ridiculous... I buy department store makeup and prices have gone up slightly but not as much as everything else. I went to shop for makeup in covent garden (didn't buy anything in the end though) on sunday and the shop was heaving with customers who were buying multiple lipsticks.

Buy jumpers and wooly socks and thermal underwear for Christmas presents this year.

The thing is , many millions are being affected. So if millions of people can’t eat or heat their homes what will happen? The government will have to do something.

Whsts the alternative otherwise?

The energy companies making massive profits, can’t the government do anything to them?
Look at Centrica who own British Gas. Billions of profit so far this year.But they know the government are giving people cost of living payments. So surely if they know the government is giving people money to help pay their bills, there’s no incentive for them to lower bills?
Can’t someone do something?
In France, their energy has only gone up 4%. Why are we allowing these massive hikes to happen here? Why isn’t the government doing more rather than just paying lip service?

Why would a Conservative government do more than pay lip service?! Why do so many people vote for one thing and then hope for another? Or are some people so stupid that they really believe that a party that stands for low tax, low regulation and a small state, has the will to do anything other than leave it to the free market? It already regrets covid, so obviously it’s not going to leap into action. Covid spending was an aberration for this Government. It will also keep very quiet about how its low regulation, low tax philosophy encouraged the oligarchs of the world to invest and launder money here and thus encouraged and enabled Putin to amass a spectacular war chest for crushing Western democracies with. Modern conservative neoliberal philosophy is that greed and selfishness are good and every man should look out for himself, not turn to anyone else to help him. It’s how we managed to become a technically rich country with low productivity and inadequate infrastructure that somehow still manages to blame the poor for its problems, while the rich dance a jig with the proceeds of crime.