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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think wealthy people will leave Scotland?

1000 replies

Juniperberries25 · 16/06/2022 08:09

..if the YES side win a referendum? Surely a lot of successful businesses and people who are wealthy/ comfortable/ have paid into a pension will not want to risk all their assets becoming worthless? Or am I missing something? Higher taxes, unknown currency, economic uncertainty, hard border, national security concerns etc

It would cost BILLIONS to set up new Government bodies (eg DVLA, Passport office, MI5, MI6, Amy Navy, RAF to name a few) so surely taxes will be much, much higher than rest of the UK?

Just to clarify I am NOT a fan of Boris but surely he will be long gone by the time Scotland actually became independent after YES vote (probably at least 10 years, just look at the BREXIT timeline).

Please don't flame me, I am just wondering what people think as I genuinely don't get how the benefits outweigh the risks.

OP posts:
Timeandtune · 18/06/2022 11:48

In answer to the original OP- DH and I are not wealthy. We are about to retire and in the event of a “yes” vote would try to relocate to England. IF England would have us and IF we were able to sell our house and continue to draw down our pensions

AchatAVendre · 18/06/2022 12:37

AntelopeValley @AchatAVendre where did you get the minimum of 8 years from? Sweden 4 years, Finland 2/3 years with negotiations beginning in Feb 1993 Croatia 11 years. Of course, it depends on what you count as the start. I have counted when countries apply for membership. But some countries have their own referendums with citizens about whether to join the EU and many years of public debate before actually applying. But the process can take 2-3 years or can take longer. Generally, the more unstable a country is, or the larger and more complex a country is, the longer it takes.

No. No. No.

The accession procedure is the end of the entire accession procedure of various stages. By the time a country has reached accession, it will already have spent many years in negotiation and being guided by the EU Commission on how to prepare its application. Countries don't just apply, they have to be invited to apply by the EU.

So, long before the application process begins, a country enters into a dialogue with the EU. Article 49 of the TEU sets out the four stages of accession, and all of the EU member states must approve this. The 4 stages are:

(1) application
(2) candidate status
(3) negotiation
(4) accession

Moving on from any of the stages requires unanimity and the agreement of the EU institutions, both the Commission and the Council, and the EU Parliament also being involved.

Countries which want to even apply must respect the EU's fundamental values of democracy, rule of law, human rights and fully functioning market economies with the ability to withstand competition in the single market. I don't think people really understand what this means. In practice, countries must welcome competition from the rest of the EU into its own established markets and not place obstacles in their way.

There are 35 chapters of EU law that have to be negotiated and the laws in the country in question are examined in microscopic detail. It would be a massive problem for Scotland that it has a unicameral legislature (there is no second independent body examining legislation and instead it is approved by committees of MSPs who make the legislation they are examining) and it is astonishing that at this stage of the Scottish independence debate, with talk of a second referendum, that the party promoting it i.e. the SNP haven't addressed this and other issues in detail. It is highly unlikely that the EU would permit Scotland to be the only country in Europe with a non-bicameral legislature as it affects the separation of powers and the rule of law but this is where EU interference comes in - all those MSPs lining their pockets with pet projects and all those "nice to have pieces of legislation coming out of the Scottish Parliament" would probably not see the light of day in an EU country and many of them would have to be got rid of. I'm thinking of micro-interference with the market on areas ranging from holiday let licensing to minimum alcohol pricing. Unlikely to even allow an NHS because it doesn't meet EU competition law requirements because its a single, non-competitive supplier of health services in a closed market.

Since 2020, there have been even more robust criteria for accession so that stronger demands can be made of candidate countries' respect for the rule of law and the functioning of democratic institutions. Since the much vaunted (by the Scottish Parliament at least) committee system seems to be modelled on the former Iron Curtain countries before their overthrow and not on a modern, accountable system of constitutionally enshrined checks and balances, its surprising that the SNP hasn't paid more attention to reforming the institutions of state so as to get them ready for EU candidature.

I haven't even mentioned the economic criteria which Scotland doesn't meet and seems unlikely to. The SNP can't even provide a plan for which currency they would use in the event of independence.

As a result, I'm not sure that I really believe the SNP on how keen they are on EU membership. They changed their mind on oil and gas quickly enough. The former White Paper last time around on the EU membership issue claimed that the Court of Justice of the EU "supported" Scottish candidature, which is patently wrong - it certainly isn't the court's job to do such a thing - along with claiming that there would be a "Scottish version of the ECHR", rather than a promise to sign up.

If I were going to vote for Scottish independence (which I'm not), I would be looking for a far greater and more active commitment to EU laws and values right now, rather than these wishy washy vague and often pie in the sky claims that are forming part of the debate. I don't think support for Scotland joining the EU is that high within many EU member states. The EU was last enlarged because its better to have your neighbouring countries with you than against you, particularly where they are themselves neighboured by Russia. That isn't the case for Scotland, which is on the periphery of Europe and which offers no real economic advantages in market accessibility either - most of its trade is done with England and it is awkward and expensive to get to with a limited population size of only 5 million once you have overcome those hurdles. Its also not in the least Scandinavian in nature - its a celtic country predominately. Norway hasn't joined the EU because it has a massive oil fund but the SNP has done an about turn and doesn't like oil any more so without the EU its difficult to see an independent Scotland being very prosperous - and lack of prosperity is why it joined the UK way back in 1707.

Current applicant countries are Turkey (since 1987), North Macedonia (2004), Montenegro (2008), Albania (2009) and Serbia (also 2009) and they are all stuck because they do not meet accession criteria.

Added to that the last enlargement of the EU for former Eastern European member states was ludicrously expensive for the richer member states and that several of them have caused problems since in failing to meet EU values (namely Hungary, notoriously and repeatedly) and Poland (with its forced retirement of independent judges in favour of government appointees for one matter), I really can't see the EU rushing to embrace an independent Scotland. Theres just not enough gain for the EU, its non-compliant in too many areas and theres unlikely to be unanimity to even allow it to progress its membership. Basically, existing EU member states would have to unanimously approve giving Scotland lots of money in funding to address its balance of trade deficit and national debt and then the EU would pretty much spend the next however many number of years telling the Scottish Parliament that they would have to repeal many of its newest laws or change them. The new Hate Crime bill for example clearly breaches the EU Charter on Fundamental Rights in a number of areas, not lest the rights to respect for family life and to privacy.

So an independent Scotland would certainly be outwith both the EU and the UK and possibly not even a signatory to the ECHR. Those are hard facts, rather than vague promises by a political party.

AchatAVendre · 18/06/2022 12:41

And just to point out that countries such as Switzerland and Norway are successful small countries because they are extremely conservative with a small "c". They don't make many changes to their laws because their politicians are expected to think carefully about things before making changes. The rate of legislation affecting people's everyday lives is extreme at the moment and a lot of it is based on pet projects, presenting a certain liberal-socialist-green image without the funding to back them up and, it has to be said, controlling people.

Devolution was really badly done by the UK and in a hurry but oh hasn't the Scottish Parliament made the most of that situation! There are so few effective constitutional checks on the areas in which the SP can legislate even compared to the relatively laissez-faire UK, and so little accountability. Who, for instance, knew that the criminal requirement of mens reas of knowing intent was required for a transgression of the Ministerial Code by the First Minister? Misleading parliament was perfectly all right, as long as she didn't do it deliberately. Astonishing.

CherryReid · 18/06/2022 12:44

* We alsohave a good reputation in tourism, food and drink, gaming (which is often and oddly overlooked seeing as the gaming industry is worth more than the film and music industries combined), renewables, electronics, textiles, and financial services (not the best but Edinburgh is ranked ahead of the likes of Madrid, Rome, Dublin, etc and only London is ahead of it in the UK)*

How come education is poor, roads are appalling, drug deaths and presumably drug dealing aaaappalllinng - what are our wondrous gov doing

WouldBeGood · 18/06/2022 12:59

@AchatAVendre sums it all up. Thank you

AchatAVendre · 18/06/2022 13:10

WouldBeGood · 18/06/2022 12:59

@AchatAVendre sums it all up. Thank you

Waiting for the attacks, insults and whatiffery to come rushing in. SNP supporters generally don't like their ideological beliefs about the magical land of EU membership being threatened.

I've seen reference to some "experts" who have apparently said EU membership is a done deal. I am aware of two constitutional law/competition law academics who make a lot of capital out of this notion. Almost everyone else disagrees with them. But what the SNP really needs is expert lawyers such as Joanna Cherry MSP, who sits on UK Joint Committee on Human Rights and who is universally admired even by non-SNP supporters by everyone, except it seems her own party.

Switzerland by the way relies heavily on cheap migrant labour and always has done, and in being located in the centre of Europe. As does the EU in general due to the Posting of Workers Directive. In Sweden, expect to be taxed from near zero of your earnings - very small personal allowance.

Ianrankinfan · 18/06/2022 13:25

Thebestwaytoscareatory · 18/06/2022 11:46

NO THEY DIDN'T!!!!!

The once in a generation vote thing is a myth! It comes from a written statement Alex Salmond made in the foreword of the independence white paper (something I very much doubt many no voters actually read).

Below is the actual statement.

"The debate we are engaged in as a nation is about the future of all of us lucky enough to live in this diverse and vibrant country. It is a rare and precious moment in the history of Scotland - a once in a generation opportunity to chart a better way.”

It's abundantly clear from the context of the statement and the publication it appears in that its intended purpose was to encourage the yes voting part of the electorate to participate in the vote.

It was not some sort of legally binding promise made in parliament to hold the referendum once and then lock it away again for 70 odd years!

Guess that means the rest of the White Paper was a work of fiction too…

Limesaregreen · 18/06/2022 13:26

For everyone saying there is no one worthy of election in an independent (and to those who cannot think of a suitable candidate to replace Boris Johnson), the most respected leader in the world today was a comedian/actor only a short time ago and he’s doing a darn better job than all these ‘proper’ politicians. He is holding his own against a Russian invasion ffs whilst the UK govt can only hold a piss up in their office and let the peasants eat cake

Limesaregreen · 18/06/2022 13:29

What can happen when people are in control of their own destiny

bellacaledonia.org.uk/2022/06/15/island-dream-home-nightmare/

Alexandra2001 · 18/06/2022 13:34

Income taxation rates are not set by the EU and Sweden has decent Tax free thresholds.

the misleading parliament stuff is same as England... mustn't be deliberate the bar for proving that is set by the PM ... hence Bojo still here.

Do you not think the UK relies heavily on cheap labour? or as Paul Scully said "work harder and longer to solve air passenger chaos" so cheap labour and long hours.... double whammy!!! expect WTD to be gone very shortly.

Scotland won't join EU anytime soon after a vote of independence, simply because the negotiations on Scotlands withdrawal from the Union would take many years... took five for Brexit...

Blimeyherewegoagain · 18/06/2022 13:40

@AchatAVendre a well said and informative post, thank you.
The part about us not having 2 “layers” of government for lawmaking is particularly interesting.

buttersbottom · 18/06/2022 14:04

carefullycourageous · 16/06/2022 11:32

England is not a great place to live tbh. Wealth very unevenly distributed and increasingly so. This does affect quality of life for a great many.

Can you name a country in which wealth isn't unevenly distributed? Certainly not Scotland. Can you name a country other than the USA which is a more desirable location for economic migrants around the world than England/UK as currently constituted?

It would certainly be possible that poor Scots could get poorer after independence. In fact it's a probability rather than a possibility.

HazelEyedHeather · 18/06/2022 14:16

@Thebestwaytoscareatory that's one of the times they did, and many of them jumped on the phrasing and used it after that. Now they're defending it. So if it's a myth, maybe someone should tell them that. Good old Salmond, what a great leader, followed by his pal (see no evil) Sturgeon. Neither to be trusted.

DdraigGoch · 18/06/2022 14:44

garethevans · 16/06/2022 13:38

Denmark / Finland / Norway / Ireland all have a similar population to Scotland, they do just fine as will Scotland should it come to that.

Ireland was sluggish for decades. It took becoming a tax haven for it to become the prosperous nation it is today. Can Scotland compete with that?

ILikeHotWaterBottles · 18/06/2022 14:48

I'm always puzzled as to why people always use the oil question as a "gotcha" when it comes to Scottish independence, like do they not realise that there are countries out there who are successful who have very little, if any, oil and gas of their own i.e., Sweden, Switzerland, South Korea, France, Japan, etc?

Well it's used because whenever Salmond was asked where Scotland's money would come from, his only answer was oil. Then it collapsed, and suddenly it's tourism and ecoenergy? And they've started ignoring Aberdeen completely, something they obviously aren't happy about. Basically if you're north of Perth, you are ignored by the SNP. We don't exist according to them.

They have no genuine, proper answers to any question or how it will work. They just say some garbage politician speak and move on.

awaynboilyurheid · 18/06/2022 16:38

atchat thank you for clearing up the mistaken belief that somehow the EU are desperate to welcome an independent Scotland and it wouldn’t take long!
Utter nonsense! but once again the vague spin of the SNP airily waving their hands with rhetoric such as we can sort this all out once we are independent! Dangerous nonsense

antelopevalley · 18/06/2022 17:06

@AchatAVendre I see your length of time for Scotland to enter the EU takes into account all the pre-discussions. Those can happen while the process is negotiated for Scotland to leave England. That itself will take at least a few years.

I was actually listening to a debate yesterday about the legislature issue in Scotland. There appears to be a major lobby to sort that issue out even if Scotland remains within the UK. It was an interesting discussion.

I am well aware of what being in the EU means. The UK used to be in it you know and my work dealt with the issue of competition with Europe. Membership of the EU brings major economic benefits and the UK is suffering now we are not members. I am also aware of the issues with certain countries joining the EU and why those countries who have applied to join are unlikely to ever be approved.

I find it extremely depressing that the only arguments against a yes vote are scaremongering. No one is able to argue that Scotland will be better off staying in the UK. I think it is clearly because there are no benefits. It is all scaremongering of what if.

antelopevalley · 18/06/2022 17:08

It is EU and ex EU senior officials who have said they enthusiastically welcome an application from an independent Scotland to join the EU. Are they members of the SNP?

MarshaBradyo · 18/06/2022 17:13

AChat interesting posts thanks

darlingdodo · 18/06/2022 17:33

Antelopevalley, Scotland would be better off staying in the UK in the same way that the UK would have been better off staying in the EU. It's not scaremongering to point out issues that Scotland would have to overcome in the event of independence.

Exactly the same argument was used during the Brexit debate - the only position 'Remain' had was that of scaremongering, while the Leave campaign, much in the same way as the SNP do about independence, took the position in the sunny uplands free from the yoke of EU oppression. It's odd how, from an SNP/independence perspective, if the No campaign do it, it's scaremongering, but if the EU Remain campaign do it, it's sensible questioning of a deeply flawed position.

antelopevalley · 18/06/2022 17:43

The difference was that those who campaigned for Brexit told lies again and again.
I know Scotland would have issues to overcome. But the alternative of staying in the UK with the inevitable deep recession that is coming does not seem a good choice.

awaynboilyurheid · 18/06/2022 17:45

Enthusiastically welcome an application does not an EU member make ,
but let’s not let facts get in the way of everything will be great once we shake off England.

awaynboilyurheid · 18/06/2022 17:50

And while we are at it, who gave the SNP the right to use the saltire on their yes flags and stickers. It doesn’t belong to one political party.
An American visitor asked me is that the SNP flag? When he saw a an original saltire, I said no it’s just been hijacked for political point scoring
Perhaps the no vote need to put NO on the lion rampant flags.

antelopevalley · 18/06/2022 17:50

@awaynboilyurheid Except I have never said any of those things.

I voted no last time. In spite of the many insults and condescension on this thread it has never been about nationalism for me. It has simply been about what option will create a better life for my children.
And heading into a deep recession in the UK with many businesses closing does not fill me with hope. I know the countries financial outlook at the moment is totally shit. If you are well off you can ride that recession. Ordinary people can not. I know the devastation recessions cause of poorer communities with drugs and hopelessness. Why would I vote no for that?

Clavinova · 18/06/2022 17:52

Alexandra2001
Johnson gave the SNP the perfect excuse for a 2nd vote as they were lied to, i remember the promise that a NO vote meant staying IN the EU and thats the material change NS needs.

The promise of staying in the EU permanently even with the EU referendum vote on the horizon? Who made the promise? Boris Johnson was Mayor of London in 2014 - not an MP and not in government.

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