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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think surely the CIA etc must have looked at assassinating Putin?

59 replies

Sortilege · 26/04/2022 14:47

That must have been one possibility they’ve explored since he invaded Ukraine, right? Even if it’s been judged impossible.

Now Russia is notching up talk of nuclear war. It must be something they’re scoping out, or have I read and watched too many thrillers?

I just keep wondering what twist will come next,

YANBU = Could happen
YABU = State sponsored assassination is not something any power or agency would resort to.

OP posts:
girlmom21 · 26/04/2022 15:54

Blossomtoes · 26/04/2022 15:48

I’m astonished that Trump survived for four years and he’d have been a lot easier for a rogue CIA agent to take out.

I don't think he was dangerous enough for anyone to waste their time on to be honest.

BarrowInFurnessRailwayStation · 26/04/2022 15:55

I thought Elon Musk was going to duff him up. I'd pay to see that 😃

I don't like that Sergei Lavrov. He can go as well.

UrslaB · 26/04/2022 16:00

Okay there is so much to unpack here. Do security agencies employ espionage and even outright assasination? Hell yes.

Do they however consider the assasination of one of the most powerful leader's of a nuclear armed nation? No. Not just no. Heck no.

Firstly, Putin is one of the most well protected leader's in the world. If he was killed it would likley be from an internal coup rather than a foreign force. He is known for his paranoia and his distrust for even his own fellow govt. ministers and supposed allies. Assasinating him would be difficult.

In the intelligence community the idea of a devil you know being better than the devil you don't is also another huge issue. If Putin was disposed of then this would create a power vaccum as the line of succession is murky. For all of Putin's terrible crimes he has kept Russia stable. Think back to when the USSR fell. The number of drug and weapon dealers which were spawned and used state resources was a huge issue and the effects are still plain to see internationally today. Just the thought of all the rogue elements given free rein if Putin disapeared is a nightmare for intelligence agenices.

Then is the issue of power struggles. An internall squabbling Russia sounds like a great idea in theory but would have huge international consequences (uncertainty over economic issues, food production, manufacturing, military, treaties,internal population management) and would make the likelyhood of a more extreme leader rising to power by a show of strength more likely. That would be bad...so bad.

All the intelligence on what motivates Putin and what works against him would be useless. The intelligence on his allies would suddenly become potentially worthless as intelligence communites scamble to figure out the new leader, their personality, quirks, goals and who their allies are. Also, the assumption taht Rssia would just quietly leave Ukraine if Putin died is naive. Putin has a number of supporters and backers who may take over if he died and assasinating him may allow a similarly like minded but potentially even more ruthless individual to take over. No government is just one man, no matter what it looks like from outside.

Anyway, all those issues are a headache if an assasination or a coup worked. Then you consider the disaster of if it failed. And that is a real possibility. Assasinations of high valued leaders in history have been seen to fail in the past e.g Castro. Heck, even when they succeed they can have horrible consequences like with Lumumbra sinne despite succeeding everyone knew who to point the finger at. If intelligence agencies try to assasinate Putin but fail then this would cause massive issues. Huge geo political and economic repercussions at the least, an excuse for more miliray actions and possibly even all out war in Europe.

Heck, even if it succeeded, if the intelligence agency was even suspected (as unless it was covered up perfectly Nato countries would be...een if it was covered up perfectly as a death by natural causes conspiracy theories and propoganda would likely thrive) of it this could turn Putin into a martyr and harden Russian attitudes. Cause a more hard line leader to rise, while giving an excuse for more retalitatory war and geo-political or economic repercussions.

Just...no. The intern or the new guy in the meeting suggests wacking Putin and then everyone else tells him to sod off and go get their coffee order while they have a real discussion. This isn't a Bond film.

3luckystars · 26/04/2022 16:00

I know!!!!!!!!!

I have watched the Bourne films and James Bond and thought there was a grain of truth in them. But there can’t be.

(Unless someone has actually gotten close and instead of just shooting him, they had an elaborate rotating saw that was going to cut him in half or a laser beam that was going to blast him slowly over the course of 20 minutes and he managed to escape.)

I don’t know what to believe anymore.

Libertaire · 26/04/2022 16:07

I’m sure the Americans would love to take Putin out but he is so paranoid and so well protected that, short of nuking the Kremlin, it would be impossible to get to him. And if they did that, the Russians might be a bit cross, which given their nuclear arsenal probably wouldn’t end well…

Sortilege · 26/04/2022 16:15

UrslaB · 26/04/2022 16:00

Okay there is so much to unpack here. Do security agencies employ espionage and even outright assasination? Hell yes.

Do they however consider the assasination of one of the most powerful leader's of a nuclear armed nation? No. Not just no. Heck no.

Firstly, Putin is one of the most well protected leader's in the world. If he was killed it would likley be from an internal coup rather than a foreign force. He is known for his paranoia and his distrust for even his own fellow govt. ministers and supposed allies. Assasinating him would be difficult.

In the intelligence community the idea of a devil you know being better than the devil you don't is also another huge issue. If Putin was disposed of then this would create a power vaccum as the line of succession is murky. For all of Putin's terrible crimes he has kept Russia stable. Think back to when the USSR fell. The number of drug and weapon dealers which were spawned and used state resources was a huge issue and the effects are still plain to see internationally today. Just the thought of all the rogue elements given free rein if Putin disapeared is a nightmare for intelligence agenices.

Then is the issue of power struggles. An internall squabbling Russia sounds like a great idea in theory but would have huge international consequences (uncertainty over economic issues, food production, manufacturing, military, treaties,internal population management) and would make the likelyhood of a more extreme leader rising to power by a show of strength more likely. That would be bad...so bad.

All the intelligence on what motivates Putin and what works against him would be useless. The intelligence on his allies would suddenly become potentially worthless as intelligence communites scamble to figure out the new leader, their personality, quirks, goals and who their allies are. Also, the assumption taht Rssia would just quietly leave Ukraine if Putin died is naive. Putin has a number of supporters and backers who may take over if he died and assasinating him may allow a similarly like minded but potentially even more ruthless individual to take over. No government is just one man, no matter what it looks like from outside.

Anyway, all those issues are a headache if an assasination or a coup worked. Then you consider the disaster of if it failed. And that is a real possibility. Assasinations of high valued leaders in history have been seen to fail in the past e.g Castro. Heck, even when they succeed they can have horrible consequences like with Lumumbra sinne despite succeeding everyone knew who to point the finger at. If intelligence agencies try to assasinate Putin but fail then this would cause massive issues. Huge geo political and economic repercussions at the least, an excuse for more miliray actions and possibly even all out war in Europe.

Heck, even if it succeeded, if the intelligence agency was even suspected (as unless it was covered up perfectly Nato countries would be...een if it was covered up perfectly as a death by natural causes conspiracy theories and propoganda would likely thrive) of it this could turn Putin into a martyr and harden Russian attitudes. Cause a more hard line leader to rise, while giving an excuse for more retalitatory war and geo-political or economic repercussions.

Just...no. The intern or the new guy in the meeting suggests wacking Putin and then everyone else tells him to sod off and go get their coffee order while they have a real discussion. This isn't a Bond film.

Interesting. Thanks.

OP posts:
Blossomtoes · 26/04/2022 16:24

They can’t nuke the Kremlin, it’s so pretty!

ancientgran · 26/04/2022 16:30

Blossomtoes · 26/04/2022 16:24

They can’t nuke the Kremlin, it’s so pretty!

I thought that!

meditrina · 26/04/2022 16:35

fallfallfall · 26/04/2022 15:10

Can I ask why the CIA? Why not MI6, Why not the secret military of a dozen other countries?

Not MI6 because the British line is consistently that we don't do assassinations.

CIA and Mossad seems to have different rules, and I'm sure there will be others.

Not least the various Russian services, so I assume that Putin is very well protected, so no-one from within can get it. Which must make it hard/impossible for a foreign agency to carry out (and get operatives safely away from)

Plus of course there's no telling what would happed next and its likely potential to make things even worse. All those in positions of power are Putin proteges, and so will be likeminded. And would see it as an act of aggression, then heaven knows what. Especially if their retaliatory strike was against the wrong actor

zingally · 26/04/2022 16:35

Oh I'm absolutely certain there is "someone" working on exactly that right now. It would probably have to come from within Russia to get anywhere close though.

crowsfeet57 · 26/04/2022 17:23

I think the problem is that somebody worse always takes over and unless there is a clear and reasonable successor it is just too risky. When Russia invaded Afghanistan the West was horrified, but when they pulled out, the Taliban moved in. Same with Iraq, Saddam Hussein was ousted and Isis took over. Gaddafi was assassinated and Libya is now a failing state. I have read reports that Putin's likely successor is likely to be worse than him.

meditrina · 26/04/2022 17:41

Haven’t MI6 managed to keep their activities darker? I know either 5 or 6 did admit to extra-judicial killing at one point, but no specifics. (I didn’t dream that, did I?)

I think you've garbled - despite the name MI5 and MI6 are civilian organisations, an they are not policy makers. They collect intelligence and carry out other cover operations on behalf of the relevant government departments. If the government decided that it was prepared to approve an assassination, then they would commission the organisation with the relevant skills to execute the operation. That wouldn't be either of those two.

I don't see the politicians signing off an assassinations at all. Let alone one in a non-permissive environment, with the potential unintended consequence of Russia deciding it was tantamount to an act of war and retaliating. Either by out and out war, or a series of retaliatory assassinations (and we all know they have the capacity and willingness to use it)

Janesmom · 26/04/2022 17:43

Assassination is unlikely to be all that difficult. The problem, as others have said, is the consequences. It wouldn’t improve anything. Rather, it would further destabilise Russia and likely result in significant, long-term reprisals for the US.

Sortilege · 26/04/2022 19:07

meditrina · 26/04/2022 17:41

Haven’t MI6 managed to keep their activities darker? I know either 5 or 6 did admit to extra-judicial killing at one point, but no specifics. (I didn’t dream that, did I?)

I think you've garbled - despite the name MI5 and MI6 are civilian organisations, an they are not policy makers. They collect intelligence and carry out other cover operations on behalf of the relevant government departments. If the government decided that it was prepared to approve an assassination, then they would commission the organisation with the relevant skills to execute the operation. That wouldn't be either of those two.

I don't see the politicians signing off an assassinations at all. Let alone one in a non-permissive environment, with the potential unintended consequence of Russia deciding it was tantamount to an act of war and retaliating. Either by out and out war, or a series of retaliatory assassinations (and we all know they have the capacity and willingness to use it)

I’ve got a memory that someone from (or about) MI5 or MI6 did make some kind of admission about (past) killings at some point in the past ten years, but I can’t pin it down. I’m not commenting on who writes the policy or issues the orders, I just thought some sort of partial admission had finally been made. I had a very quick Google at lunch and couldn’t find it though.

Accounts of CIA kill missions, OTOH, are numerous.

OP posts:
Mummyratbag · 26/04/2022 20:02

Others have put it better than I can, but assassination of a head of state is never going to end well.

whumpthereitis · 26/04/2022 20:05

Sortilege · 26/04/2022 19:07

I’ve got a memory that someone from (or about) MI5 or MI6 did make some kind of admission about (past) killings at some point in the past ten years, but I can’t pin it down. I’m not commenting on who writes the policy or issues the orders, I just thought some sort of partial admission had finally been made. I had a very quick Google at lunch and couldn’t find it though.

Accounts of CIA kill missions, OTOH, are numerous.

Mi6 is a quintessentially British organisation. Understated and discreet.

whumpthereitis · 26/04/2022 20:08

www.shortlist.com/news/we-spoke-to-a-former-mi6-spy-about-the-murky-world-of-state-sponsored-killings

was this what you were thinking of, OP?

whumpthereitis · 26/04/2022 20:16

The long table I imagine is because he’s aware of how far away he needs to be to avoid certain substances being administered.

Although, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s quite ill and his immune system is compromised. He’s being followed around by a thyroid cancer specialist, and the swollen appearance could be indicative of steroids.

Probably just a waiting game at this point.

AChocolateOrangeaday · 26/04/2022 20:17

I wouldn't want to be his food taster.

PureBlackVoid · 26/04/2022 20:30

It seems the CIA get their inspiration from Looney Tunes so I wouldn’t hold my breath

To think surely the CIA etc must have looked at assassinating Putin?
whumpthereitis · 26/04/2022 20:35

My favourite Castro one was when they sent an ex girlfriend to assassinate him. She went to Cuba, slept with him, and then went back stateside. Calls him the love of her life to this day apparently.

🥴

Babyboomtastic · 26/04/2022 20:36

If they were to consider it, I doubt they'd do an AMA on mumsnet first.

As it is, a blatant act of war to a nuclear superpower wouldn't exactly be sensible.

HellonHeels · 26/04/2022 20:42

fallfallfall · 26/04/2022 15:10

Can I ask why the CIA? Why not MI6, Why not the secret military of a dozen other countries?

MI6 specialise in killing their own.

Sortilege · 26/04/2022 21:04

whumpthereitis · 26/04/2022 20:08

Oh yes. Could be. I’ll get a drink and read it properly. Thanks.

OP posts:
Sortilege · 26/04/2022 21:05

Babyboomtastic · 26/04/2022 20:36

If they were to consider it, I doubt they'd do an AMA on mumsnet first.

As it is, a blatant act of war to a nuclear superpower wouldn't exactly be sensible.

😁

I can hope.

OP posts: